Landmark Power-Sharing Deal Reached in Zimbabwe

Although details will remain secret until Monday (15 September), the importance of having all three signatures on a power-sharing document is obvious even now. For President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa, this is vindication of the 'softly-softly' approach to mediation that he has pursued despite vociferous criticism at home and abroad. It would appear that President Robert Mugabe’s monopolistic political hegemony, which has been firmly in place since the 1987 merger of his Zimbabwe African National Union and the Zimbabwe African People’s Union, has been broken. More importantly, for Zimbabweans and those with an interest in the country, the deal holds the promise of a return to normalcy.

Of course, everything rests on implementation. Inevitably, we must expect disappointment on the issue of transitional justice. Human and civil rights abuses committed in the wake of the 29 March election and before are unlikely to receive enough attention to satisfy civil society. The argument will also be heard in the coming weeks and months that there is no legitimate basis on which Mugabe can remain in government and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) has therefore sold out by acquiescing. Depending on the details, this point will likely be a minority position.

Last-Chance Saloon

After discredited elections and a violent crackdown on opposition supporters, Robert Mugabe of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and Morgan Tsvangirai of the MDC met for the first time in almost 10 years on 21 July 2008 to sign a memorandum of understanding (MOU), alongside Arthur Mutambara of the MDC offshoot faction, for talks aimed at the formation of an inclusive government (see Zimbabwe: 22 July 2008: Historic Handshake Heralds Opening of Fresh Zimbabwe Crisis Talks). To describe the process since then as stop and start would be an understatement. As recently as Monday (8 September), Morgan Tsvangirai was openly warning that Zimbabwe would have to return to the ballot box if the talks fail. The previous week, Mugabe had bluffed that he would form a cabinet of his own determination if MDC-Tsvangirai remained unwilling to sign the proposed agreement. At that point, both Mugabe and Mutambara were openly criticising Tsvangirai for vacillating on a single point in the discussions—namely, the distribution of executive powers between the presidency and a new prime-ministerial post, which Tsvangirai would occupy. Members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) were also said to have applied pressure on Tsvangirai to accept the offer on the table—one that according to Tsvangirai would have left him as a ceremonial prime minister alongside an executive president.

Whereas in the past it may have been a reasonable assumption that Tsvangirai would bend under such sustained pressure, things have now changed. The 29 March election demonstrated the MDC’s popular support, much to the surprise of Mugabe and his backers on the Joint Operations Command. Neither unilaterally calling the election, which was in effect a repudiation of the previous cross-party talks, nor the uniformly pro-government media coverage brought him the expected returns. Tsvangirai came ahead in the first round of the presidential election with 47.9% of the vote against 43.2% for Mugabe and 7.9% for the independent candidate, Simba Makoni. With only 97 seats in the National Assembly against 99 for MDC-Tsvangirai and 10 for MDC-Mutambara, ZANU-PF lost control of the National Assembly for the first time since independence. In the weeks of delay that followed the March polls up to the discredited second round in June, Zimbabwe’s international pariah status grew, stretching beyond the usual Western voices to include Zimbabwe’s domestic neighbours. Meanwhile, the state of economic collapse deepened. Inflation now sits in excess of 11,200,000% per annum. Tsvangirai has also benefited from the apparent unworkability of an alliance between MDC-Mutambara’s parliamentary representation and ZANU-PF. When the National Assembly voted for a house speaker, ZANU-PF did not put forward a candidate and instead backed the MDC-Mutambara candidate, Paul Themba Nyathi. However, MDC-Mutambara, for the most part, supported MDC-Tsvangirai’s candidate, Lovemore Moyo.

South African President Thabo Mbeki, the facilitator for the talks, has been in the Zimbabwean capital, Harare, this week, pushing the two sides for an agreement and apparently he has succeeded. Tsvangirai confirmed Mbeki’s statement last night that a deal has been reached, the details of which will be made public after an official signing ceremony on Monday (15 September). That said, the deal is widely expected to include Mugabe as president and head of state, and Tsvangirai as prime minister and head of government. Both will have two deputies. Mugabe will chair the cabinet, while Tsvangirai will chair a council of ministers in charge of the day-to-day business of government. A 19th constitutional amendment will pass through parliament to support the agreement and an entirely new constitution will be devised within the next 18 months. According to Mbeki, the signatories will spend the next few months “constituting this inclusive government”.

Outlook and Implications