Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The group, which includes five Italians, five Germans, and a Romanian, are believed to be held in Karkuk Talh; their kidnappers, who the Egyptian authorities say may be members of a Sudanese rebel group, are believed to have demanded a multi-million dollar ransom. |
Implications | This is the first known kidnapping to take place in the last decade in a country which relies heavily on revenues from tourism. The sector currently accounts both directly and indirectly for around11.3% of GDP. |
Outlook | The worrying incident is expected to spark international concern, prompting the government to step up security in surrounding areas while refocusing attention on security at the porous Egyptian-Sudanese border. |
Desert Dangers
Efforts to free 11 European tourists and eight Egyptians, who were kidnapped at gunpoint in a remote area of the Sahara desert in the south west of the country and taken to Sudan, are currently underway. The authorities became aware of the kidnapping after the owner of the tour company, who is among the abductees, phoned his wife late last night to tell her of the ransom demand of between 8 and 15 million U.S. dollars. Their popular safari tour was believed to have begun near Gilf al Kabir, an inhabited region situated along the border; tourists are required to obtain a permit from the military before visiting the site. However, the exact circumstances of the kidnapping have been marred by confusion amid conflicting reports from government officials. A statement by Egyptian foreign minister Ahmed Abul Gheit suggested that the group had been freed and that they were now "safe and sound"; the statement was later retracted. The Egyptian authorities are believed to have launched a massive security operation in coordination with the authorities in northern Sudan. However, there are concerns that a botched rescue operation by the Egyptian authorities, which remain under intense pressure to bring the hugely damaging ordeal to an end, could further put the group’s lives at risks. Egyptian daily Al Masry al Youm quoting an anonymous source said that that the kidnappers threatened to kill the tourists if the state intervened militarily to save them. Negotiations are expected to be the preferred option given the precariousness of the current circumstances with the European governments concerned expected to continue to try to maintain contact with the group; the German authorities in particular are believed to be leading efforts on this front.
Casting a Shadow Over the Nation’s Tourism Industry
Many Egyptian officials were keen to stress that this was an act of banditry, not terrorism; Egypt has witnessed a spate of terrorist attacks in major tourism hotspots in recent years. October 2004 bombings of tourist resorts in the northern town of Taba, as well as triple bombings against Egypt's most popular Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh in July 2005 caused widespread panic and badly damaged the country’s tourism industry. Synchronised bombings were again repeated against a Sinai resort in April 2006, causing further carnage. The combined death of over 120 people reignited fears of a return to widespread violence. The targeting of hotel resorts and restaurants, however, revealed a strategy of attacking soft targets; however, the threats posed by militant Islamist groups in Egypt have generally continued to recede. The little known al-Qaida-linked group, Tawheed wa Jihad—believed to be responsible for the attacks—is thought to have been destroyed in successive government counter-terrorism operations. Kidnapping in Egypt remains highly unusual in contrast to other countries in the region like Algeria and Yemen, the last known incident in the country was in the early 1990s.
Outlook and Implications
Tourism is the nation’s biggest foreign-currency earner; the sector currently accounts both directly and indirectly for around11.3% of GDP. Revenues have increased by up to 32% bringing a massive total of US$10.8 billion into the Egyptian economy. The incident is expected to dent Egypt's reputation as a safe destination for foreign tourists but the overall impact on income is expected to be low, especially if the tourists are eventually released unharmed. Given the precedent set by the kidnapping, visitors will be well-advised to avoid the area along the border given the possibility of copycat attacks. In terms of the Egyptian authorities, the incident is expected to refocus attention on country’s southern porous border with Sudan where smuggling activities are thought to be rife and away from the Sinai Peninsula’s border with the Palestinian Gaza Strip which is thought to be another source of instability. For the time being at least the international spotlight will once again be focusing on the Mubarak’s regime’s response and its ability, in coordination with the German, Italian, and Romanian authorities to ensure the safe return of the 12 tourists.