Election 2008: Far Right and Socialists Squeeze Out Conservatives in Austria

Yesterday, Austrian voters went to the polls in a snap parliamentary election designed to end the political stalemate. The outgoing ruling parties, the Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) and the People's Party (ÖVP), may now be regretting the decision to hold the early ballot, with the far right having made gains at their expense. With 90% of all the votes counted so far, on paper nothing much has changed regarding the positioning of the individual parties. The SPÖ won the election, with the ÖVP second and the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) and Alliance for Austria's Future (BZÖ) third and fourth, respectively. The Greens were the final party to make it into parliament in fifth position. However, if the parties are put into blocks, the true impact of the results becomes clear: the ÖVP and SPÖ lost many votes, and the latter’s share of the vote was just 0.7 percentage point higher than that achieved by the far-right block. This makes the far right the second-largest force in Austrian national politics, with the conservative ÖVP only the third largest, a situation that could have serious consequences for business-friendly reforms.

It's Enough!

Wilhelm Molterer, the leader of the ÖVP and outgoing vice-chancellor, had called for a snap election to free his party from the shackles of the SPÖ and end the 18-month stalemate in the “grand coalition” (see Austria: 8 July 2008: After Eighteen Troubled Months, Austria's Coalition Collapses). What it has instead resulted in is a boost to the far right and a reinstatement of the SPÖ as Austria's prime force. The FPÖ and BZÖ made Molterer's slogan of July 2008—"It's enough!"—their own and won hands-down against the ÖVP. The two—whether incidentally or on purpose—mirrored the stances of the SPÖ and ÖVP during the election campaign. Thus, the FPÖ became the more vocal, populist party, just as the SPÖ had been over the past weeks, while BZÖ leader Jörg Haider exercised—by his standards—great restraint and adopted a moderate, centre-right stance on most issues. This gained the two parties 246,000 votes from disgruntled SPÖ supporters and a further 235,000 from former ÖVP voters, with the BZÖ performing particularly well among ÖVP supporters.

The SPÖ fought back by reverting to its socialist roots and pledging greater state funding for low- and middle-income earners. At its most extreme, the SPÖ teamed up with Austria's prime daily, the populist Kronen Zeitung, to attack what it called the democratic deficit of the European Union (EU) and to push for more referenda on EU affairs. This certainly struck a chord with the Austrian electorate, who are among the most Eurosceptic in the bloc.. In the end, however, this turned out to be a cynical move designed to increase the party’s popularity and SPÖ leader Werner Faymann quickly changed tack on the issue and did not mention the topic again for the remainder of the election campaign. Another masterstroke was Faymann's “Five-Point Programme” to target inflation; four of his five points were approved in the lower house of parliament during its final session last Thursday (25 September).

The ÖVP, on the other hand, saw its popularity wane as the campaign went on. When Molterer picked a fight with the SPÖ back in August, he based his decision on the opinion poll ratings at the time. The ÖVP’s back was against the wall just as much as the SPÖ’s; indeed, the regional elections in Tyrol had ended with a surprisingly large defeat for the party on its home turf and brought about some significant changes (see Austria: 24 June 2008: Austrian Interior Minister Resigns to Become Regional Governor). Yet, unlike the SPÖ, which bravely approved the resignation of then-chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer, the ÖVP did not challenge Molterer's dominance. During the election campaign, the ÖVP adopted a less feisty manner than its main contenders, and focused too much on the SPÖ. Its criticism of the financial market crisis and rising inflation was as harsh as that of the SPÖ, but it lacked the miracle remedies suggested by the SPÖ. The ÖVP was also the only party opposing the scrapping of university tuition fees; in an election during which people as young as 16 could vote for the first time, this was a brave but ultimately fatal move.

The Greens meanwhile failed to hold on to their sensational third place from 2006. The blame here lies squarely with their party leader, Alexander van der Bellen, who did not attract enough voters with his manifesto. Indeed, some people responded to the slogan on the Greens’ posters—"When if not now?"—by scribbling below it, "Later". Among undecided voters, the Greens’ politics did not win out against the core policies of the four other main contestants. Whereas in Germany the liberals and Greens are well established, those two forces remain sidelined in Austria by the far-right parties.

Outlook and Implications

Much changed already in the run-up to this snap election, as more policies in favour of low- to middle-income earners were passed in the final session of parliament, which will increase Austria's budget deficit in 2009 (see Austria: 25 September 2008: Austrian Parliament Passes Significant Laws as it Rounds Off Term). The SPÖ and ÖVP have lost considerable support from their core electorates, something Faymann has pledged to revert. The fight against the far right is only starting: the SPÖ must watch its back in parliament and may bring out its more populist streak to keep the two parties in check.

Molterer refused to draw any conclusions from the election results and remained tight-lipped regarding the future of the ÖVP's leadership. However, other ÖVP members are already calling for a major reshuffle and Molterer's resignation. The outgoing vice-chancellor has wisely refused to engage in such debates; he will now meet up with senior party members and discuss the next steps ahead. One thing the ÖVP learned from 1999 is how quickly a misfortune can be turned into a blessing. Back in 1999, the ÖVP came third behind the SPÖ and the FPÖ but became the senior party in a coalition government with the FPÖ thanks to a masterstroke that left the SPÖ without a potential coalition partner. Molterer still has a few trump cards to play: he knows that Faymann will turn to the ÖVP first for government formation talks. This will give the two parties a chance to divide the ministries more evenly and start afresh. The ÖVP could keep the SPÖ hanging on while discussing a possible coalition of right-wing parties with the FPÖ and the BZÖ.

Given the international outcry at the FPÖ's success in 1999, the chances are that the far-right parties would not be handed any major ministries, let alone the chancellorship. Nor would they want them: the BZÖ learned the hard way during its years in government that the transition from populist protest party to government member is difficult to make. The two parties will therefore study their options carefully and—if need be—content themselves with being a vocal and disruptive opposition force in parliament. Reunification of the two is highly unlikely: indeed, with FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache having gained such an unexpectedly good result, he will not want to give up his prime seat to the godfather of Austrian far-right politics, Jörg Haider. Nor would Haider put up with playing second fiddle to Strache, whom he regards as his younger clone.

Depending on the outcome of the postal votes, the Greens could once more take over from one of the far-right parties as a potential coalition partner and thus ease the pressure on the SPÖ and ÖVP.