Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Europe's domestic carmakers have relatively few high-volume production cars to launch at Paris. Amongst the most high-profile that will be debuted are the all-new Ford Ka and third-generation Renault Mégane. |
Implications | As is now de rigueur, those manufacturers that have no important new cars to launch are instead taking the opportunity to showcase their environmental research and development (R&D) efforts in a variety of concept cars that range from the "almost production-ready" to the "will never see light of day" status. |
Outlook | With the European light vehicle market seen falling hard for the remainder of 2008 and in 2009, there is likely to be an air of caution from the domestic OEMs at Paris, with much news from the show almost certain to be focussed on OEMs' reduced sales, production and profit targets for the foreseeable future. |
The 2008 Paris Motor Show opens its doors to the world's media today amid an air of caution within the industry. The latest statistics from Global Insight show that European new car sales plummeted by a double digit amount again in September compared to the previous year (see Europe: 1 October 2008: Western European Car Markets Severely Hit by Credit Crisis; Double-Digit Decline Anticipated in September). Global Insight is predicting that the market will now fall hard in the remaining three months of the year, before weakening even further in 2009, meaning that hundreds of thousands of units will be lost compared to previous years.
The majority of carmakers have responded to this environment by reducing their output levels, and in many cases making temporary job cuts (see United Kingdom - Spain: 24 September 2008: European Vehicle Production Slumps in August, Highlighted by Spanish and U.K. Falls). In some cases—most notably Renault—the situation is far more serious with 6,000 jobs to disappear from its European payroll permanently (see France: 26 September 2008: Renault Confirms 2,000 More Job Cuts in Europe on Top of 4,000 French Losses Already Announced).
Correspondingly and in contrast to most of the shows in recent years, carmakers will be reluctant to set themselves bullish sales targets whilst the market is still on its way down. Of course there are exceptions to this. Ford will have extremely high hopes for the all-new Ka, for example, the current-generation of which has enjoyed success for the last 12 years in Europe. With that car's Polish production-mate, the Fiat 500, already launched on the market to enormous success, Ford will be hoping that some of the 500's appeal will rub off onto its own version of this co-developed car. Whether or not that will happen is unclear but at least Ford can be sure that in the current environment of high fuel prices, increased consumer and legislative demand for better fuel economy and the deteriorating economic environment which has left consumers with less money to spend, there has never been a better time to launch an A-segment car in Europe.
Here, we take a look at the main show activity from Europe's OEMs.
- Audi will launch a concept version of the new A1 compact car and the new S4. The new S4 will feature the company's new supercharged 3.0-litre gasoline (petrol) unit which will develop 329 bhp and 325 lb ft of torque in an example of the German manufacturers' engine downsizing efforts (see Germany - France: 25 September 2008: Paris Motor Show 2008:New Audi S4 Heralds Downsizing Trend for German Performance Cars).
- Fiat will show a number of low-emission variants of its existing line-up under its new eco-oriented marketing label (see France - Italy: 23 September 2008: Paris Motor Show 2008: Fiat to Launch "Green" Marketing Label in Paris—Report).
- Ford will show the all-new Ka A-segment car, which shares a platform—and Polish manufacturing plant—with the already launched and very-successful Fiat 500. This model is long-awaited, with the current-generation Ford Ka now on the market for 12 years (see Europe: 4 August 2008: Ford Shows Off New Ka Ahead of December Sales Start).
- Mini will show its Crossover Concept, which is the preview model to Mini's first-ever four-wheel drive car, or Sports Activity Vehicle (SAV) as it calls it (see United Kingdom: 10 September 2008: Mini Reveals Details of New Crossover Concept to be Unveiled at Paris).
- PSA Peugeot-Citroën will show a number of different hybrid concepts. Citroën's Hypnos concept is a diesel hybrid coupe crossover vehicle (see France: 5 September 2008: Paris Motor Show 2008: Citroën Joins Peugeot in Showing Upmarket Hybrid Concept at Paris). Peugeot will show off two hybrid concepts meanwhile; the Peugeot RC four-door, four-seater coupé (see France: 21 August 2008: Paris Motor Show 2008: Peugeot to Show Hybrid Concept Car in Paris) and the Prologue crossover utility vehicle (CUV; see France: 17 September 2008: Paris Motor Show 2008: Peugeot Unveils Prologue Concept Version of 3008).
- Renault will show an upmarket diesel hybrid crossover concept car and the production version of the all-new third generation Mégane, (see Spain: 17 September 2008: Renault Restarts Third Shift at Spanish Palencia Factory Ahead of New Mégane Launch).
- Saab has the 9-X Air concept, which is a convertible version of the 9-X concept that was shown at this year's Geneva Motor Show (see France - Sweden: 22 September 2008: Paris Motor Show 2008: Saab Sticks with Soft-Top for 9-X Air Concept).
- Volkswagen will debut the iconic GTI version of its sixth-generation Golf, which itself has recently been launched (see France: 26 September 2008: Paris Motor Show 2008:VW to Show New Golf GTI in Paris).
- Volvo will show off its new "DRIVe" low-emission variants of its existing model line-up. Currently, the range consists of three models (C30, S40 and V50), all of which feature a 1.6-litre diesel engine and all of which can make the impressive boast of emitting less than 120 g/km CO2 (see Sweden: 10 September 2008: Volvo Unveils New Low-Emission Variants with "DRIVe" Marketing Label).
Outlook and Implications
In some respects, the lack of significant production car launch activity at the 2008 Paris Motor Show could be considered surprising. At the very least the French manufacturers usually take advantage of the world's media descending on their home turf. Although PSA is showing a number of diesel hybrid concepts which are key to its future environmental ambitions, the truth is that this technology will not see the light of day for another few years yet. Renault on the other hand, does have an absolutely critical product to show in the form of the all-new third-generation Mégane C-segment car. With Renault traditionally relying on the Mégane range for around 40% of its brand sales, and given the hugely disappointing first-year sales of the third-generation Laguna, a good positive reaction to this car subsequently translating into high sales volumes, could not be more needed by Renault than it is now.
There is also a distinct lack of activity from some of the region's other most high-volume brands. For example Opel/Vauxhall has nothing of note to show at all, with parent company GM's focus firmly on the European unveiling of the revolutionary Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid car, and following the launch of the new Opel/Vauxhall Insignia at the British International Motor Show in London this summer.
As is now almost always the case, those carmakers without any significant new production cars to show off turn to their concept cars. Whilst concepts used to focus predominantly on design, giving away hints of important styling cues for future production models, these days the spotlight is firmly on technology, and what innovations the car has which will contribute to better fuel consumption in future models. It should not be forgotten that design also plays an important part here, however, as aerodynamics, weight-saving materials and of course size all play an important factor in the ultimate fuel efficiency of a vehicle.
At this stage it is not known what the general mood of the show will be, but at best it is likely to be cautious and at worst, depressed. Global Insight's latest sales figures for the home market of Western Europe for September paint an extremely dismal picture, with the credit crisis certain to exacerbate the market weakness in the remaining three months of the year. News of production cuts, job losses and other cost-saving measures has been plentiful in recent weeks—and it is almost certain that we have not seen the worst of it yet.