Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The Thai Constitutional Court has dissolved three ruling coalition parties and banned their executives from politics for five years. This forces Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat to resign, leaving the country without a functioning government. |
Implications | The anti-government protesters have welcomed the ruling and have tentatively agreed to vacate the airports they have been blockading for the past week. |
Outlook | Thailand's troubles are still far from over. It is possible that the remaining People Power Party MPs and their allies may form a new government and elect a new prime minister. If this does not meet with PAD approval, the same cycle of protests will begin anew, almost inevitably prompting military intervention. |
Risk Ratings | To reflect the suspension of political processes and the fear of widespread civil unrest, the political and security risk ratings have been downgraded to 3.25 and 3.5 respectively. |
The Thai Constitutional Court has today issued a verdict dissolving the ruling People Power Party (PPP) and banning its executive leaders from politics for five years. This includes Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, who has accepted the ruling. This leaves Thailand without a functioning government, and plunges the country into further political turmoil and uncertainty. As a result, IHS Global Insight has downgraded Thailand’s political risk rating from 3 to 3.25 and its security risk rating from 3.25 to 3.5. This reflects the suspension of political process and the heightened risk of military intervention, as well as widespread concerns of civil unrest.
Structural Flaws at the Heart of the Crisis
The military-drafted constitution is at the heart of the current political crisis, as it gives too little power to the elected government and too much control to unelected officials of the bureaucracy and judiciary. Article 237 of the charter stipulates that if any executive member of a party perpetrated or allowed electoral fraud, then the Constitutional Court may dissolve the whole party and ban the executives from politics for five years. The process to disband the PPP arose when one of its executives, former house speaker Yongyuth Tiyapairat, was in July found guilty of buying votes during the December 2007 election. The constitution allowed for this provision to enable former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s ban from politics, as well as the dissolution of his Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party. The PPP was created as the TRT’s successor party, absorbing all MPs that were not affected by the ban. Similarly, the PPP has already established a successor party, Puea Thai, in anticipation of the dissolution. The party is expected to absorb all the PPP MPs, apart from the 37 executives that have been banned under the ruling. However, it is not clear who would lead this party.
Clearly, history is repeating itself in this respect. Until the constitution is amended, similar instability is likely to recur. Given new elections, Puea Thai may well gain a majority, as it would still enjoy support from the rural population. However, this would again provoke the wrath of the ranks of the anti-government People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) and its supporters, leading to a similar cycle of instability. However, any previous attempts to amend the constitution by the PPP-led government have been met with stiff opposition from the PAD and have inflamed the protests. As such, Thailand remains locked in this structurally flawed system for the foreseeable future.
The Verdict
The Constitutional Court has dissolved the PPP, as well as two of its smaller coalition allies, the Chart Thai Party and the Matchima Party. Chart Thai was the third-strongest force in parliament after the PPP and the opposition Democrat Party. As such, three parties within the six-party ruling coalition have been disbanded, leaving Thailand without a functioning government. Within the PPP, 37 executives have been barred from entering politics for five years, among them Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat. He announced that he would accept the verdict and that his “duty was over”. Somchai has spent less than three months as prime minister, after he took office following a prior Constitutional Court verdict stripping former prime minister Samak Sundaravej of the premiership (see Thailand: 10 September 2008: New Thai Prime Minister to Be Elected on 12 September).
Nearly 1,000 angry pro-government "red-shirted" activists of the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) blockaded the Constitutional Court early today, forcing the hearing to move to another location. The verdict was read aloud live on national television. Riot police stood guard as fears of widespread civil unrest gripped Bangkok.
PAD Protesters Celebrate as Airports Due to Reopen
The removal of the PPP-led government fulfils the key aim of the PAD protest movement. The ruling also comes just hours after a blast killed one PAD militant and wounded 22 others at their camp at Don Mueang Airport (see Thailand: 26 November 2008: Anti-Government Protesters Take Control of International Airport in Thai Capital).
The PAD has today also agreed to allow flights to resume from Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi International Airport after its week-long blockade. The occupation of both airports in Bangkok has left over 350,000 travellers stranded and has caused considerable economic and reputational damage to the Thai economy, particularly the critical tourist industry. The protesters are set to begin clearing the airports today, with the first passenger flights taking off from tomorrow, barring any technical difficulties. However, it is expected to take at least another week before the airport becomes fully functional again, and several international airlines are continuing to repatriate passengers via other airports in Thailand for the time being. However, this has left tourists having to battle some of Thailand’s most dangerous roadways, and three tourists have already been reported killed in two road accidents that have taken place.
Outlook and Implications
The Government
Today’s ruling sends Somchai and 59 executives of the three parties into political exile. Of the 59 members, 24 are lawmakers who will also have to resign from their parliament seats. A government spokesman has stated that Somchai and the ruling six-party coalition will step down, and that the regional ASEAN Summit will be postponed from December to March. All members of the three parties that have not been affected by the ban are expected to join Puea Thai or other parties in order to try to negotiate a new coalition and choose a new prime minister. The vote has been tentatively set for 8 December, but must take place within 30 days. Until then, deputy prime minister Chaowarat Chandeerakul will be the caretaker prime minister. A new leader has not emerged on the horizon, as the ruling has effectively removed a generation of Thai politicians, potentially leaving the government in the hands of an inexperienced MP.
Civil Unrest
Should the ex-PPP MPs succeed in forming a new governing coalition, this will hardly solve any of the political problems facing the country, as the PAD will continue to protest and to shift the goalposts. It is certainly a possibility that a new coalition deal could be reached, as the PPP still has 216 MPs to field, as opposed to the Democrat Party’s 165. In the meantime, fears of civil unrest are growing, as seven people have been killed by grenade attacks in recent weeks, bringing the total number of deaths in the recent tensions to nine. The government’s supporters feel they have been held hostage by a group of middle-class elites that have imposed their will on the majority. A pro-government supporter said that “the court is not qualified to make this ruling. They are nothing more than apologists for the alliance, who are ruining the country.” The Bangkok Post also predicted unrest: “It now seems that violence cannot be avoided. Some even predict what has been unthinkable for 700 years: a civil war.” While the powerful military is expected to prevent any escalation to all-out civil war, the possibility of confrontation between the militant PAD and government supporters is high, reflected in the downgrading of Thailand’s security risk rating by IHS Global Insight.
A Military Coup?
To all intents and purposes, Thailand does not have a functioning government. The risk of civil unrest is growing, and with it, the accompanying risk of military intervention. The heightened possibility of a coup is reflected in the downgrading of Thailand’s political risk rating, from 3 to 3.25. If the parliament does indeed elect a prime minister the PAD does not approve of, the same cycle of protests and deadlock will start again. In that case, a military coup seems almost inevitable, particularly as civilian-military relations remain extremely weak. In any case, it appears increasingly likely that the elite will win out over the rural majority.