Democrat Party Forms New Government in Thailand

Thai opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva was today elected as the new Thai Prime Minister. He won with 235 votes to 198 against ex-police chief Pracha Promnog, who had been nominated by the former ruling party’s new political incarnation, Puea Thai, and its allies. The head of the Democrat Party (DP) is the third prime minister to be appointed in the last four months, but is the first in this series to stand in opposition to former PM Thaksin Shinawatra. As a result, hundreds of supporters of Thaksin and the former government protested outside parliament in an attempt to block the vote. Nonetheless, it is hoped that the election of a DP official to the premiership may bring some respite to the country, which has been torn apart by ongoing protests and deep divisions between the rural and urban populations. However, it is likely that any such respite will be short-lived.

Who is the New PM?

Abhisit Vejjajiva declared his ambition to hold the premiership back in 2006, when a military coup toppled Thaksin from power and dissolved his party, leaving the DP as the single largest political force in the country. However, he initially missed his chance when he was defeated by the People Power Party (PPP), which replaced Thaksin’s party, in the December 2007 elections, largely for having failed to win over the rural north of the country. The British-born and educated parliamentarian spent the next year in opposition, again failing to capitalise on Thailand’s political instability until now.

Abhisit’s supporters note that he stands out from the rest of the country’s political scene for being relatively free from corruption, and his promotion of clean governance and idealism. One of his largest challenges will be to win over the rural north of the country, where he has failed to replace Thaksin’s populist policies. His last attempt at campaigning in the region previously resulted in him being pelted with rotten vegetables by angry villagers who felt that he was completely out of touch with their needs.

The Newin Faction

While Abhisit has a reputation for clean governance, the method in which he has risen to power casts a long shadow over his premiership. In the parliamentary vote today, several smaller parties from the previous ruling coalition defected to the DP, including the Rum Jai Thai Chart Pattana Party, whose leader resigned in the wake of the vote after he failed to secure their support for Pracha. However, Abhisit’s victory was only guaranteed by the support of the Friends of Newin faction, previously members of the PPP. The group of over 30 MPs are loyal to a local political strongman from the northeast called Newin Chidchob. Newin himself was banned from politics by the dissolution of Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party in 2007. He had been loyal to Thaksin for the past eight years, but finally broke those ties in a reported phone call last week.

The defection of the Friends of Newin is significant for several reasons, beyond enabling Abhisit to become prime minister. Firstly, it signifies the end of the unity that had characterised the “Thaksinistas“ over the last decade, despite the immense pressure that has been put on them over the last three years. But more importantly, it also unequivocally ends all hopes that Thailand had moved on from the horse-trading and unstable coalition governments of the 1990s to become a truly democratic country based on a populist constitution and genuine political debate between stable parties.

Some local media reports suggest that up to US$1 million per MP was promised in order to secure support for the DP. Those funds may not be directly paid as bribes, but could be promised in the form of development money for local regions. Similarly, the former government was apparently also offering funds for continued support. This system was today highlighted by the fact that all the MPs were locked down in hotels without mobile phones until the vote today, likely to stop them from being courted by opposing factions offering incentives for their votes. The 1990s were characterised by local political bosses effectively selling their MPs to the highest bidders at the federal level. This corrupt, ineffective and unstable system contributed in large part to the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, and continued until Thaksin swept to power.

Since then, the populist 1997 constitution has been replaced by a fundamentally flawed military-drafted one, and it appears Thailand’s political system is firmly back to where it was in the 1990s. As such, while the immediate confrontation between the PAD protesters and the government may be over, Thailand remains locked in a structurally flawed system which is bound to throw up new problems in the near future.

Thaksin Continues to Cast Shadow over Political Scene

While Thaksin’s influence appears to be on the wane, he remains a formidable force in Thai politics, as was demonstrated on Saturday when a recorded video address was played to 50,000 supporters at Bangkok’s National Stadium. In his message he accused the DP of being a front for military rule, and that the Friends of Newin were “betrayers”. He said that he was confident the army and the judiciary were behind the rise of a DP-led government. The video message was also broadcast on enormous screens at public spaces across Thaksin’s heartlands in the north and northeast of the country.

While the spectre of civil strife has been much reduced since the PAD broke up its protests, further unrest cannot be entirely discounted. Thaksin and his followers still command much support in parts of the country, and they are bound to feel as though they have been cheated out of power by an elite minority consisting of the military and judiciary, as well as the mob rule of the PAD.

Outlook and Implications

Abhisit faces serious challenges. The most pressing will be to keep the cobbled-together coalition intact. The coalition has arisen through political manipulation involving the judiciary, elements of the military and the tacit approval of the powerful palace. The DP recently proposed tightening the already ruthless lese majeste laws by extending them to the internet, in a bid to solidify its royalist credentials. Nonetheless, complete loyalty from all factions is far from guaranteed. More worryingly, having been in opposition for the last eight years, the DP does not possess any well thought-out policies or development plans. Drawing up and implementing policy will depend on a kind of coalition unity that simply does not exist at present. Abhisit will need to be very careful in ensuring that the demands of all factions within the coalition are met, which could prove to be extremely difficult. He also needs to smooth the frayed emotions of both sides of the recent political conflict and show that he can be a leader to all Thais.

Of course, all of this comes at a time of serious economic difficulties for Thailand. Growth is slowing in the context of a global economic downturn, but more worryingly, Thailand has suffered incredible reputational damage from the PAD’s airports seizure, which is expected to hit the vital tourism industry hard. Some economic analysts predict a loss of up to 3% of GDP next year just from unrealised tourism revenue. Few are optimistic that this coalition will be able to deliver sound policies to cope with these economic circumstances.

Finally, Abhisit will aim to provide some leadership as current head of ASEAN. He plans to shift the postponed summit forward to February, from March, after having initially been set for this month. The first few months of his premiership will be a critical test of his ability to lead and unify a coalition that many in the country will perceive as illegitimate.