Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Tensions are mounting in Ghana, as the EC delays the announcement of the winner of Ghana’s presidential election. Thus far, the EC has said that the opposition candidate, John Atta-Mills, is in the lead over his rival, Nana Akufo-Addo. However, the result will not be announced before Friday (2 January) at the earliest, following the holding of polls in the constituency of Tain. |
Implications | The 53,000-strong voter population in Tain, in the central-western region of Brong-Ahafo, is to go to the ballot box on 2 January because the second-round ballots were never cast in this constituency. According to the EC, this was because of balloting irregularities, but other reports suggest that inflamed tensions in the district were to blame. |
Outlook | The delay in the announcement of the vote has raised tensions in Ghana, and the nation’s democratic image is at risk of being tarnished by the widespread allegations of fraud and irregularities. Tain’s kingmaker role is clear, but it is not yet clear as to which way direction the result of this small district will tip. The threat of election-related violence cannot be ruled out, but it is hoped that the harsh lessons from Kenya’s post-election violence have been learnt. |
Ghana’s second-round presidential election took place on Sunday (28 December) after neither of the two presidential aspirants was able to garner the required majority to win the race outright on 7 December (see Ghana: 5 December 2008: Election 2008: Tight Contest Expected in Ghana's Presidential Polls). In the first round, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) candidate, Nana Akufo-Addo had a simple majority of 49.13% of the vote against 47.92% for the opposition candidate, John Atta-Mills, but this was insufficient for Akufo-Addo to have won outright, thereby forcing a second round of voting. In the legislative polls which took place on the same day, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) was triumphant, garnering 114 seats, while the NPP came second with 107 seats, leaving other opposition parties and independents with 9.
Waiting Expectantly
Thousands of Ghanaians camped outside the headquarters of the EC in Accra overnight on Monday (29 December), in anticipation of the pronouncement of the election result the following day. Even businesses in Accra were wound down on 30 December as people waited expectantly for the announcement. However, the EC declared that the definitive result will not be announced before Friday (2 January) at the earliest, to allow for the vote to take place in the small district of Tain, in the central-west region of Brong-Ahafo, after they failed to occur because of mounting tensions.
Nevertheless, opposition party, the NDC has already declared its candidate victor of the polls. This is in line with what the EC chairman, Kwado Afari-Gyan told reporters yesterday: "As of now, Professor Atta-Mills is in the lead", Agence France-Presse (AFP) reports. This was the result after the votes of 229 out of 230 constituencies had been counted, which shows that the third-time presidential aspirant, Atta-Mills, is leading with 50.13% as against 49.87% for Akufo-Addo. Some media houses, such as Joy FM and Peace FM, also jumped on the bandwagon, already declaring Atta-Mills as the victor, accompanied by joyous celebrations in certain parts of Ghana.
Tain Battlefield
The contest is such a close call, that the casting of votes in Tain on 2 January could very well tip the balance in favour of either candidate. Tain, situated in the centre-west Brong-Ahafo region of Ghana did not vote last Sunday (28 December), in the second round run-off polls, because of confusion over ballot papers, according to the EC. However, it has been claimed that tensions were far too explosive in Tain for the initial vote to be carried out due to the level of animosity between rival supporters. Though Tain is a small constituency, with a mere 53,000 registered voters, the kingmaker role that its electorate has adopted, makes its impact on Ghanaian politics at this present time, far from negligible, given that it is only 23,000 votes which separates the two candidates.
Precisely which way the pendulum will swing in Tain is by no means clear cut. In the 2000 presidential elections, the then-NPP candidate, John Agyekum Kufuor, polled 16,308 in Tain while Atta-Mills came away with 14,792, ModernGhana.com reports. However, in the first round of the 7 December 2008 elections, it was the NDC candidate who polled the majority of votes in this constituency, but only by a whisker, with 16,211 against 14,935 for Akufo-Addo. Atta-Mills appears to be taking no chances, even though his camp is confident of victory. Reports are emerging that the presidential aspirant has already headed for Tain to continue with his door-to-door campaigning.
Simmering beneath the surface, Tain has shown itself to be politically charged, and the potential for politically-fuelled violence could become a reality. On 12 December, the offices of the EC in Tain were set ablaze by suspected political activists from both the NDC and the NPP camps. The very reason why the vote did not take place on 28 December in this district was because of the threat of election-related violence, thus there is much foreboding surrounding the 2 January vote.
Outlook and Implications
The EC has not said when it will firmly announce the definitive results but, on the ground, some Ghanaians have already decided who has won the vote, with NDC figures and some radio stations already declaring Atta-Mills as the winner. The longer it takes for the EC to come out and make an official declaration the more agitated the Ghanaian population will become, and the more likely the prospect of election-related violence will be. Already allegations of electoral irregularities are rife, and the delay in the pronouncement only adds to the conjecture that the results are being "massaged". This is disappointing for Ghana, which has long been hailed as a bastion of democracy in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly at a time of much political turbulence in the sub-region. The fact that the elections went to a second round run-off was indeed testament to the nation’s democratic tradition, but now, with allegations of widespread fraud and intimidation from both sides mounting, that democratic image has been tarnished. So far, however, although tensions are high, violence has been minimal. The vote on 2 January in the politically-charged district of Tain, however, has the potential to change that. Nevertheless, Ghanaians are hoping that the harsh lessons from Kenya’s post-election violence, for example, have been learnt.