Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | On 18 January, Salvadorans are called upon to vote for 84 lawmakers, 20 representatives of the supranational Central American Parliament, and the members of 262 municipal councils. The first round of presidential elections is scheduled for 15 March. |
Implications | The opposition Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) is set to become the dominant force in Congress, but will probably fall short of winning an absolute majority of seats. In the most important local electoral battle, the FMLN is likely to retain the mayoral post of San Salvador, the capital. |
Outlook | Sunday’s elections could pave the way for a historical change of government at the March presidential elections, when FMLN candidate Mauricio Funes is likely to be elected. |
The Electoral Battle, First Round
The local and legislative elections mark the beginning of a tense battle for power in the Central American country that is widely expected to result in a historic change of government. On 18 January some 4.2 million voters will cast their ballots to elect 84 members of the unicameral congress, 20 representatives of the supranational Central American Parliament, and the members of 262 municipal councils. The end of the electoral campaign, officially closed on 14 January, has been marked by an increase in political tension and sporadic outbursts of violence. In the worst incident of electoral violence, two activists of the leftist FMLN were gunned down on 9 January. However, the head of the Electoral Mission (assembled by the Organisation of American States [OAS]), Gustavo Fernández, yesterday stressed the reigning climate of "civic tranquillity" on the eve of the ballot. Yet given the vital interests at stake, electoral violence may flare up again over the weekend. Electoral turnout is expected to be relatively high, with the number of those intending to participate at the highest level since the 1994 elections. The present contest will be followed by a first round of presidential elections scheduled for 15 March.
Opposition Poised for Victory
According to pre-electoral polls, the local and electoral polls will change the political landscape of the country, currently dominated by the ruling right-wing Republican National Alliance (ARENA) [see table].
Congressional Seats (2006) | Mayors (absolute numbers) | |
Republican National Alliance (ARENA) | 34 | 147 |
Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) | 32 | 52 |
National Conciliation Party (PCN) | 10 | 39 |
Christian Democratic Party (PDC) | 6 | 14 |
Democratic Change (CD) | 2 | 2 |
In the legislative elections, polls consistently see the FMLN well positioned to become the dominant force in the unicameral Legislative Assembly. According to a poll by the Central American University (UCA), 40.5% of respondents intend to casts their ballots for the opposition, while only 25.3% envisage supporting the ARENA. However, the advantage in voting intentions is unlikely to be sufficient for the FMLN to win an absolute majority in the legislature (of 43 seats). The UCA-poll was conducted between 15 and 30 November 2008 and has a 2.8% margin of error. The electoral advantage for the FMLN is somewhat smaller on the sub-national level. Here, the UCA-poll sees the FMLN ahead with 34.6% to ARENA’s 27.1%. The FMLN is strongest in the metropolitan area of San Salvador whereas ARENA‘s support is based more in the western regions.
In San Salvador, the key municipal battleground, Violeta Menjívar from the FMLN will face Norman Quijano (ARENA) in her bid to win another term as head of the capital. According to a poll by local newspaper La Prensa Gráfica, conducted at the end of December, the acting mayor is likely to have her way, albeit by a narrow margin, grabbing 32.3% of the intended vote against 27.6% for the ARENA candidate. This poll has margin of error of 3.5 % and a confidence level of 95%.
Outlook and Implications
Voter fatigue with the ARENA after 20 years of uninterrupted governance, a negative economic outlook, the increase in living costs, and the country’s continuing security problems have created a favourable climate for the opposition to get across its central message of the need for change. This change is likely to start in the upcoming legislative and local elections and could be sealed with a FMLN victory in the March presidential elections. Polls have consistently seen the FLMN candidate, Mauricio Funes, ahead of his ARENA rival Rodrigo Ávila (see El Salvador 30 December 2008: Polls Show Opposition Ahead for 2009 General Election in El Salvador). Seventeen years after the end of the bloody civil war that ravaged the country, the probable election of a president belonging to the FMLN, the guerrilla movement- turned-party in 1992, could rightly be called historic.
This prospect has naturally created concern over the degree of change. During the electoral campaign, Funes has vigorously tried to diffuse fears that he might transform El Salvador into an antenna state of Venezuela and Cuba—as ARENA has insinuated—meeting inter alia with representatives from business and development banks (see El Salvador: 8 December 2008: El Salvador's Leftist Presidential Candidate on Tour to Calm Business Concerns). Legislative elections are likely to lead to further institutional checks. As the FMLN is unlikely to gain an absolute majority in Parliament, legislative coalitions will remain a necessity. This might calm political minds somewhat, in what otherwise promises to be a highly polarised electoral campaign for presidency.