Calm Provincial Elections Signal New Era for Iraq

Landmark Polls

Seven-and-a-half million Iraqis headed to the polls on Saturday (31 January) to cast their votes in land-mark provincial elections in 14 of Iraq's 18 provinces, the first held since 2005. Amid an atmosphere of anticipation and tight security measures, violence levels were remarkably low, with only a few incidents recorded across the country as Iraqis voted to fill the 440 provincial council seats which were up for grabs. Over 14,400 candidates were competing for the votes in hundreds of party lists. Duhok, Erbil, Sulaimaniya provinces in the Kurdistan Region refrained from voting and the disputed oil-province of Kirkuk (Tamim) was excluded from the vote. Ahead of the polls, authorities had closed all borders and airports, imposed curfews, banned driving and blocked major roads to protect the 6,000 polling stations. The most serious security incident occurred in the restive province of Ninewa in the provincial capital of Mosul, where an early-morning shootout resulted in two deaths. Elsewhere, a few incidents were reported: in Tikrit four small bombs went off but resulted in no casualties, while a bombing in Tuz Khurmatu north of Baghdad wounded seven people, including six policemen. Nevertheless, the elections have been reported as being relatively free and fair. The 800 international observers that provided on-the-ground monitoring have not yet reported widespread voter intimidation or fraud—although some reports of such things have emanated elsewhere before the polls. The Iraq High Electoral Commission announced that preliminary elections will be released by next week, while the final results can be expected to take several weeks due to the complexity of the voting system. Although hopes had been raised ahead of the elections that the skewed results of the 2005 provincial elections would be redressed this time around, when turnout was extremely low and disaffected groups refrained from voting, low voter participation—at only just over 50% of the electoral voted on Saturday—has caused concern that disaffection may grow among some groups.

Low Turnout and Preliminary Results

Indeed the low turnout came as a surprise. Observers, the election commission and governing political parties had expected Iraqis to head to the polls in larger numbers. Across the board, some 51% of the electorate was estimated to have taken part in the elections. This reveals that the improved security situation has not yet instigated a significantly raised electoral confidence in the political system. For many voters that will only happen once real changes are seen on the ground with regards the improvement of services and living conditions. Voter apathy is likely to affect the electoral process in Iraq for several years to come unless significant improvements can be made to meet basic demands across the country. In addition, reports that the party lists and the voting system was unnecessarily complicated may have discouraged voting. Many would-be voters reportedly had severe difficulties finding the correct polling station, causing some to give up eventually. In addition, although the provincial elections law removed the closed party list voting that led many to vote for unknown candidates in 2005, the open lists this time around reportedly caused confusion because of the sheer number of candidates that had put their names forward. Furthermore, results are likely to have been affected by the difficulties of the one million internally displaced people (IDP) in Iraq that have not been able to vote or have experienced difficulties in voting due to logistical difficulties in arranging for them to vote in their home provinces. Ahead of the polls in December 2008, Diyala and Ninewa provincial councils had opted to refrain from taking part in the elections due to the failure of administering due mechanisms for IDPs to vote. On Saturday, in Khanaqin in Diyala province, one of the many so-called disputed areas, hundreds of Kurds reportedly demanding the right to vote in the elections, stormed a polling office.

It was a particular surprise that voters refrained from voting in Anbar province, the former stronghold of the al-Qaida led Sunni insurgency. The Sunni Muslim group was the main group that boycotted the 2005 elections, suffering at the time from the anti-Sunni backlash which hit the country in the aftermath of Saddam Hussein's removal. Hussein, himself a Sunni Muslim, had drawn heavily from the Sunni community for support during his rule. It had been hoped that Sunni sense of marginalisation had been somewhat redressed with the emergence of the so-called "Awakening Councils", which saw a mushrooming of tribally organised participation in the anti-insurgency movement which took off late 2006. The Iraqi Islamic Party, which has dominated Anbar's provincial council since 2005, was expected to lose its seats to tribally organised lists—however, it appears that the party has again secured a significant number of seats, prompting rumours of fraud and manipulation. There is a risk in Anbar that disaffected tribal groups which have been the main root of the ousting of the insurgency there will withdraw their support from the political process if the Iraqi Islamic Party has indeed used subversive means to get ahead in the polls.

The most noticeable results so far have been the weakening of religiously affiliated parties and the gains made by the State of Law party backed by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. Indeed many observers have put these results down to a vote of confidence on the prime minister. The Shi'a Islamic Dawa party head, had set up a separate list ahead of the polls, de-emphasising Dawa's strongly religious links and attempting to spearhead a more secular leaning and cross-sectarian party coalition. The prime minister's attempt to widen his electoral support and reach deeper into rural electorates appears to have been largely successful. The list's main victories have been Baghdad and Basra provinces, two of the most politically important provinces in the country. In oil-rich Basra, where voter turnout was reportedly significantly higher than elsewhere, the competition had been stiff between Maliki's Dawa, Fadhila, and the Islamic Supreme Council for Iraq (ISCI). The roll-back of the ISCI’s power in Basra has certainly strengthened Maliki's hand ahead of the legislative elections which are due to be held later this year, but will likely be postponed until next year.

Outlook and Implication