IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Morgan Tsvangirai, after 10 years in opposition, is being sworn in as prime minister today. He has also presented a list of cabinet nominees. |
Implications | Both Tsvangirai and President Robert Mugabe have gambled by participating in this government. Both risk fracturing their support base. |
Outlook | Having offered tentative support for power sharing, critical sections of the international community can be expected to take a "wait and see" approach before bring financial support online. |
President Robert Mugabe will today swear in his archrival Morgan Tsvangirai as prime minister of Zimbabwe. Two days later, ministers, deputy ministers, and provincial governors from all three principal political groupings will also be sworn in. By any measure this is a momentous development for a country ruled by the same man and the same party in isolation since 1979, broadly speaking. It is the culmination of the Southern African Development Community (SADC)'s official mediation since March 2007, a volatile election period between March and June 2008, and a historic power-sharing agreement in September 2008. The SADC and its mediator, South Africa's former president Thabo Mbeki, will no doubt see this as vindication of the gentle diplomatic approach taken regarding Mugabe and his Zimbabwe African National Union–Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), an approach that has earned the SADC abundant criticism in international and Zimbabwean opposition circles. In fact, there have been repeated calls for Mbeki's replacement as mediator in chief. Progress notwithstanding, Zimbabwe is not yet out of the woods. Problems abound with this power-sharing agreement. The three governing parties are deeply estranged, be it the ZANU-PF versus the main Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) faction controlled by Prime Minister Tsvangirai (MDC-T) or among the two MDC factions (MDC-T and that led by Arthur Mutambara, the MDC-M). All have an interest in stabilising the socioeconomic situation but the ZANU-PF is predisposed to maintaining as much of the status quo as possible while the MDC seeks radical change. Among some members of government there will be personal animosity.
Cabinet Nominations
Under the new power-sharing agreement there will be a cabinet of 31 ministries, including 14 controlled by Tsvangirai's faction, 13 by the ZANU-PF, and 3 by Mutambara's MDC offshoot. The Ministry of Home Affairs will be shared by the MDC-T and the ZANU-PF. The MDC-T yesterday released the below list of nominated ministers. The Ministry of Sports remains outstanding (see Zimbabwe: 6 February 2009: Power-Sharing Constitutional Amendment Sails Through Zimbabwean National Assembly).
1. Finance: Tendai Biti
2. Home Affairs: Giles Mutsekwa
3. Constitutional and Parliamentary Affairs: Eric Matinenga
4. Economic Planning and Investment Promotion: Elton Mangoma
5. Energy and Power Development: Elias Mudzuri
6. Health and Child Welfare: Henry Madzorera
7. Labour and Social Welfare: Paurina Mpariwa
8. Water Resources Development and Management: Abednigo Bhebhe
9. Public Service: Theresa Makoni
10. State Enterprise and Parastatals: Eddie Cross
11. Science and Technology Development: Henry Dzinotyiwei
12. Information Communication Technology: Nelson Chamisa
13. Public Works: Elphas Mukonoweshuro
14. National Housing and Social Amenities: Fidelis Mhashu
Deputy ministers nominated for ZANU-PF ministries:
1. Defence: Tichaona Mudzingwa
2. Agriculture: Roy Bennett
3. Justice: Jessie Majome
The nomination of MDC-T general-secretary Tendai Biti to the Finance Ministry stands out and will surprise many. Biti is a lawyer by trade and an outspoken critic of the current power-sharing framework despite his role as an MDC negotiator in the power-sharing talks. In the previous administration, Finance Minister Samuel Mumbengegwi had taken a back seat to Reserve Bank governor Gideon Gono. If Gono remains in place at the Reserve Bank, personality clashes and perhaps an incoherent fiscal versus monetary policy could be the result. In addition, until last week Biti was facing treason charges for pre-empting the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission by declaring an MDC-T victory in the March 2008 poll. His appointment is perhaps a signal to the MDC base that its leader has not sold out—that the party will not be absorbed into the ZANU-PF as others have been. Perhaps to bind the two MDC factions together more closely, Tsvangirai has also nominated Abednigo Bhebhe of the MDC-M as his minister of water development. There is, indeed, a distinctly political feel to the MDC nominations. This is not a government of technocrats.
Compromise
Since the main MDC faction's decision to adhere to the 26 January 2009 SADC recommendations on power sharing, there have been other compromises between Zimbabwe's polarised political actors such as the formation of a Joint Monitoring and Implementation Committee (JOMIC) to police the agreement, cross-party agreement on the distribution of provincial governorships, and unanimous backing for Constitutional Amendment number 19 and the creation of a new National Security Council (NSC) in Parliament. The JOMIC, which is composed of two members from each of the three parties, has already begun flexing its muscles. At a meeting on Friday (6 February), the JOMIC criticised the media for its inflammatory coverage of political events. It remains to be seen how the JOMIC will deal with the MDC's chief complaints regarding the disappearance of MDC activists and whether it will continue to issue balanced positions when its rotational presidency moves on from Welshman Ncube of MDC-M. The new NSC created by legislation passed yesterday will usurp Zimbabwe's notorious Joint Operations Command, which has been accused of masterminding violence against opposition elements. The NSC has been tasked with ensuring that the security services comply with the law and reviewing security development and recommending policy. It will be chaired by President Mugabe and include his two vice-presidents, Joice Mujuru and Joseph Msika; Prime Minister Tsvangirai and his deputies Arthur Mutambara and Thokozani Khupe; Minister of Finance Tendai Biti; and Minister of Home Affairs Giles Mutsekwa and Defence Minister Tichaona Mudzingwa. Defence force, army, and air force commanders; the police commissioner-general; the prisons commissioner; and members of the Department of State for National Security will also sit on the NSC (see Zimbabwe: 10 February 2009: Polarised Parties Arrive at Compromise for Allocation of Governorships in Zimbabwe).
Outlook and Implications
President Robert Mugabe will swear in his new cabinet on Friday (13 February). Having run Zimbabwe through a combination of patronage and coercion, Mugabe must now struggle to satisfy the ZANU-PF's myriad factions with only 14 ministries. Already, former members of the Zimbabwe African People's Union (ZAPU), which merged with Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union in 1987, are accusing the party leadership of ignoring them and are attempting to revive their organisation. The fact that no former ZAPU members sit on the JOMIC may accelerate their disillusionment. Tsvangirai, too, is taking a risk in entering government alongside an organisation that many of his supporters believe is illegitimate. The international community, which will be essential in any Zimbabwean rehabilitation programme, has welcomed recent developments tentatively. The European Union, for example, has offered to support Zimbabwean economic and social recovery "once the new government shows tangible signs of respect for human rights, the rule of law and macro-economic stabilisation".