IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Oil companies operating in Nigeria's Delta region are considering withdrawing expatriate workers due to the increase in insecurity and the escalation in kidnapping. |
Implications | Italian oil company Eni (Agip) has been targeted by the militant group Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) after the Italian government offered new boats to the Nigerian military. |
Outlook | MEND has ended its five-month ceasefire and has vowed further attacks on the oil industry which will lead to further amounts of oil production being lost. The MEND is still holding two British oil workers hostage. |
Withdrawal symptoms
Oil companies operating in Nigeria's Delta region are considering withdrawing expatriate workers due to heightened insecurity and an escalation in instances of kidnapping. Domestic newspaper ThisDay reports that a top official of one of the major oil companies has resolved to “suspend further deployment of expatriates to the area until they are satisfied that their security is guaranteed”. The Niger Delta has seen an increase in attacks on oil company facilities since the new year and it appears that there is an increasingly criminal intent. However, the organised militant group Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) has ended its ceasefire and has vowed a "sweeping assault" on the country's oil and gas industry. One particular company which appears to be targeted by MEND is the Italian firm Eni (Agip). A spokesman for the militants, Jomo Gbomo (a nom de guerre), issued a statement saying that Italy's Foreign Minister Franco Frattini has made an unsolicited offer of two attack boats to the Nigerian military to help combat the local indigenes and militants. Gbomo warned that "MEND therefore wishes to put Agip on notice that its government like that of Britain has by this action put its workers and Italian companies in the region at serious risk". In a later email communication Gbomo added: "we want to reiterate once again our resolve to bring pain to Italian businesses at the appropriate time".
MEND announced the end of its ceasefire at the start of the month; this ceasefire had been in place since September. The militant group is still holding two British workers hostage who were part of a group of 27 oil workers, comprising five foreign nationals and 22 Nigerians, taken hostage by gunmen who hijacked the H.D. Blue Ocean vessel at the entrance of the Sambreiro River in September. Over the past three years, around 250 expatriates have been abducted in the Delta including 44 Britons, according to Voice of America, with one Briton being killed in crossfire during a shootout involving pirates and the Nigerian military. MEND has recently warned that one of the Britons is "very ill" and a doctor had been called to review his condition. By holding the two British workers, the MEND believes it can attract media publicity to its cause and embarrass the British government which has openly supported Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Adua over the issue of militancy in the Delta. The number of oil workers being abducted has greatly reduced the willingness of foreign workers to operate in the Niger Delta.
Outlook and Implications
Militancy in the Niger Delta has been flaring for years but in early 2006 MEND emerged as the public face of the movement, with far better organisation than earlier rag-tag groups. MEND is particularly media savvy and its spokesman Jomo Gbomo uses plenty of colourful language which is often reported in the news media. Under the previous administration of former president Olusegun Obasanjo, the military would often be deployed to the Delta region and would use their firepower to disrupt the militant's activity. However, the militants have a far better knowledge of the geography of the Delta and are able to disrupt oil company activity by sabotaging pipelines, in the past using speed boats to reach offshore oil projects to alert the government, military, and media as to just what the group is capable of. MEND's suspected leader and financier is an alleged gun runner called Henry Okah who is facing treason charges after being arrested in Angola. MEND has been lobbying for Okah to be released, but due to the severity of the charges against him, this will not happen.
The MEND is likely to continue its attacks on oil companies now that its self-imposed ceasefire has ended. Oil companies including Shell, Chevron, and Eni have already been forced to call force majeure over the past few months due to militant activity and this has led to production being shut-in. IHS Global Insight expects further shut-ins to occur if the militants are true to their word and re-launch their campaign of militancy.
The Federal Government has been concentrating on restructuring the energy sector, an utterly necessary process, but it has neglected the crucial issue of dealing with the security crisis in the Delta region. ThisDay reports Governor of Rivers State Rotimi Amaechi as saying that to make the state safer for oil and gas operators, hostage taking would soon be made punishable by death. He disclosed that the state government planned to pass a bill which would make kidnapping a capital offence. Currently the criminal code provides a prison sentence of two to 10 years for kidnapping and false imprisonment.
However, there seems to be no new policy from the Federal Government and it is vital for current daily operations and future investment decisions that it is able to reduce the level of violence in the region. It appears that some major new projects may be delayed due to oil companies wariness of the situation in the Delta and this will put even greater emphasis on the need to exploit the vast reserves discovered in the deep waters offshore.
