IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Outshining cautious predictions of a tight win, a substantial 54.4% of Venezuelan voters approved the reform of five constitutional articles, paving the way for the scrapping of term limits applicable to all elected offices, including the presidency. |
Implications | The greatest boost from the victory will go to President Hugo Chávez, who made the unlimited re-election bid a personal battle, a "necessary step" for the revolutionary course to be maintained for another decade under his leadership. |
Outlook | A renewed wave of reforms is predicted as the government emerges strengthened from the vote; possibly more unpopular measures are to be expected in the short term as the president exploits his victory and prepares the country for more difficult economic times. |
A Comfortable Victory
Venezuelans have approved by 54% to 45% the five amendments to the Constitution allowing for unlimited presidential, legislative, and local-authority-post re-elections. President Hugo Chávez and his allies secured a margin of victory far larger than initially anticipated by IHS Global Insight; we had predicted a narrow win for the president. The actual size of the gap between the "Yes" and "No" camps is a clear sign of the strength of the president and a reminder that politics remain very much divided along pro- and anti-presidential lines: the victory margin mirrors the current popularity ratings afforded to the president. While the automatic translation of pro-Chávez support into votes backing the constitutional changes was not seen as a given, an analysis of the results suggest that this aspect dominated voting patterns. The president garnered more votes than in the 2007 referendum and the 2008 elections, yet fell short of matching his overwhelming win in the 2006 presidential race, when he received more than 7 million votes. Lower abstention (33.3%, compared with 44% in 2007) has played in the president's favour. Chavistas were keen to mobilise and avoid another setback like 2007. Over 6 million voted in favour of the reform yesterday. Chávez and his allies gained 5.4 million votes in the last regional elections in 2008 (see Venezuela: 2 December 2008: President's Bid for Unlimited Re-Election Revived in Venezuela).
Chávez delivered a triumphant speech from the Miraflores presidential palace announcing his pre-candidacy to the 2012 presidential election. He also profusely thanked the Venezuelan electorate for once again positively shaping his political destiny, promising to return the favour and work hard to address ongoing domestic issues such as crime. The opposition was quick to admit defeat, though it called on its sympathisers to keep the struggle against government political forces alive and once again condemned the propagandist state-funded machinery employed by the president in the referendum campaign. As usual there were no widespread irregularities registered during the vote itself, and the process was largely marked by peace and calm. No major clashes or confrontations were noted during the vote or in the aftermath of the results.
Opposition Taken Aback
The outcome of the referendum is a blow to the opposition. The optimists within its ranks will highlight that the anti-government camp garnered more than 5 million votes for the first time since the 1998 election that initially brought Chávez to power. Nonetheless, the defeat somehow sees the opposition's victory momentum stalling. Its win in the 2007 constitutional referendum and its inroads in the 2008 local elections had posited it as a gathering force. Despite its swelling ranks, Sunday's vote badly damages the opposition's confidence in the short term. In the medium term, its scope to regain strength is broad, especially looking towards 2010 once the economic difficulties of 2009 have taken a stronger hold on the country and the government. The opposition will also always benefit from ongoing criticisms, at home and abroad, of the extent of government funding pumped into the campaign, and Chávez's uses of the media to justify the tilting of the electorate's preferences towards the government.
Outlook and Implications
Rejuvenated Presidency—Reforms Ahead
President Chávez could not have hoped for more from yesterday's referendum. The turnout and extent of support for constitutional reform is an undeniable boost for his presidency, and once again reinforces his legitimacy at home. The emboldening impact of the vote should not be underestimated, especially in the current context. Venezuela is at a critical juncture, with falling oil revenues straining public finances and spending capacity.
The fresh impetus delivered by the victory gives extra freedom of manoeuvre for the president to push ahead with socialist reforms and a fresh set of policies. Some painful decisions, such as devaluation of the currency, could take place almost immediately as the president moves swiftly to capitalise on solid support. Prospects for renewed nationalisations—always an operational risk under his regime—remain high, though fiscal constraints should prove an obstacle to such costly projects in the near future. It is more likely that other unpopular reforms, such as tax increases to shore up the revenue base, could soon materialise. In any case the president is now going to benefit from a window of a good few months to conduct rapid and more controversial changes, using his consolidated political capital, and acting far enough ahead of the 2010 legislative elections. An acceleration in the pace of reforms can be expected. In terms of "radicalisation", the actual financial constraints may put a temporary brake on this, though Chávez's surprising politics continue to render policymaking unpredictable in content, extent, and timing.