IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Rajoelina has become the president of the Republic of Madagascar for a transitional period of two years following the resignation of Marc Ravalomanana amid mounting pressure. |
Implications | Ravalomanana’s capitulation spelled only victory for the youthful Rajoelina, who has emerged triumphant from the crisis. He has been endorsed by the constitutional court as the transitional leader of the country for the next 24 months, after which time elections must be organised. |
Outlook | Ravalomanana’s yielding to opposition demands is indicative of just how powerful the opposition had become but the international community, namely the African Union (AU) and Southern African Development Community (SADC), have expressed consternation at the takeover by the opposition for its unconstitutionality. For the Malagasy population however, the installation of Rajoelina as president appears to bring with it some modicum of calm, now that the uncertainty over who would govern the Indian Ocean island is seemingly resolved. |
All Over?
In spite of his defiant tone, Madagascar’s now former president, Marc Ravalomanana, was forced to step down yesterday after the military stormed the presidential buildings and seized control (see Madagascar: 17 March 2009: Army Takes Control of Presidency in Madagascar, President Refuses to Step Down). Throughout the bitter power struggle between Ravalomanana and Rajoelina (the former mayor of the capital, Antananarivo), the former was adamant that he would not yield to the demands of the opposition. Ultimately, however, the tide of anti-government sentiment proved too strong for him, particularly after the majority of the army backed the vibrant Rajoelina. The political uncertainty which had gripped the country threatened to plunge the nation of 20 million people into greater instability as the opposition appeared to be unrelenting. Bowing to public pressure, Ravalomanana announced on national radio yesterday that after deep reflection, he had decided to relinquish power: "This decision was very difficult and very hard, but it had to be made…We need calm and peace to develop our country." Indeed, many breathed a sigh of relief when Ravalomanana conceded defeat for the sake of peace and security in the country; it was an about-face from his earlier tone of defiance when he vowed to cling to power to the bitter end even if he should die in the process. Instead of handing power over to Rajoelina, the president chose to vest authority in the army. However, the Vice Admiral Hyppolite Ramaroson said that the military had "categorically rejected" this proposal, preferring rather to bestow Rajoelina with full powers to become the president of the transitional authority. This transfer of authority from the military to Rajoelina has been upheld by the constitutional court.
Out with the Old, in with the New
Ravalomanana’s capitulation spelled victory for the youthful Rajoelina, who emerged triumphant from the presidential residence, saying: "I accept humbly and with love—I assume as a duty—all responsibility, management and leadership of our beloved country, Madagascar", according to the BBC. Rajoelina has promised to lead the country towards elections within two years and also to institute constitutional reform, presumably to enable him to contest the polls because presently, he would be precluded from contesting, given that the constitution requires the minimum age for a presidential candidate to be 40. According to the constitution, in the event of the president’s resignation, it should be the leader of the upper house in parliament who should assume control and who would be mandated to organise elections within two months. However, certain precepts of the highest legal norm of the land appear to have been put on pause for the time being, with the judiciary visibly influenced by the strong sentiment on the ground and the strength of the opposition. Today the constitutional court confirmed Rajoelina’s position as president of the Republic of Madagascar for a transitional period not surpassing 24 months. The country’s new president has spoken of his intention to open up state ministries which were closed during the hostilities and to address the socio-economic needs of the population, an issue which was at the crux of the civil unrest which has hit the country since January. The AU and the SADC have condemned the power takeover, for the regional bodies are opposed to the usurpation of a sovereign government by illegitimate means. Meanwhile, UN secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon, expressed concern at the situation and has urged all sides to ensure that there is a smooth transition.
Outlook and Implications
Ravalomanana’s yielding to opposition demands is indicative of just how powerful the opposition had become. The president was left with no other real option, after his attempt to placate the opposition with the proposal of a referendum was rejected outright at the start of the week (see Madagascar: 16 March 2009: President Suggests Referendum as Panacea to Madagascan Crisis; Opposition Rejects Proposal Outright). Once the majority of officers within the army—indeed, according to the army’s chief, 99% of officers—rallied behind Rajoelina and took over presidential offices, it was clear that the opposition would not concede its demands. Continued defiance from Ravalomanana would likely have resulted in more bloodshed, adding to the number of fatalities in recent weeks as a result of the nation’s political crisis (see Madagascar: 2 March 2009: Anti-Government Demonstrations Continue in Madagascar). The capitulation of Ravalomanana therefore appears to have been the only peaceful solution in the current state of affairs, but not a democratic one. The AU and SADC remain angered by the takeover, with the SADC saying that it will not countenance the removal of a democratically-elected leader by force.
For the Malagasy population however, the installation of Rajoelina as president appears to bring with it some calm, now that the uncertainty over who would govern the Indian Ocean island is seemingly resolved. This is also a positive development for Madagascar’s investor community. The nation, which is replete with biodiversity and mineral wealth—particularly titanium and bitumen—has attracted multinational mining companies; the unrest in recent weeks did bring about the temporary closure of Rio Tinto’s office in Antananarivo as a precautionary measure, although production levels appeared to be largely unaffected. However, Madagascar’s US$390-million a year tourism sector has suffered a huge blow by the unrest in recent weeks.