IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The Alzheimer's Association forecasts that the number of new Alzheimer's patients will reach half a million by 2010, and could potentially reach double that figure by 2050 with a million new cases per year. |
Implications | With the disease already surpassing diabetes as one of the six leading causes of death in the United States, a rise in the number of new incidences will put pressure on healthcare services and also increase the economic impact of the condition. |
Outlook | Pharma firms will see an opportunity to expand in this high-value segment as the demographic health trend shifts. The warning of a rise in the number of sufferers could also lead to a government initiative, with implications on healthcare investments in this segment. |
Healthcare data trends relating to Alzheimer's and dementia in the United States suggest a potential rise in the number of new cases to 500,000 by 2010. The predictions are part of a new report by the Alzheimer's Association, entitled "2009 Alzheimer's Disease Facts and Figures". The key highlights from the report are as follows:
- Now the sixth leading cause of death in the United States, surpassing diabetes.
- 1 million new incidences of Alzheimer's expected to be reported by 2050.
- The current prevalence of Alzheimer's disease in the United States is 5.3 million sufferers.
- Healthcare costs calculated as per person payments are three-times higher for people with Alzheimer's and other dementias than for other people aged 65 and over.
- Medicaid payments are nine times higher.
- Out-of-pocket costs are 28% higher for Medicare beneficiaries with Alzheimer's than those without.
- People with Alzheimer's and other dementia living in nursing homes incurred the highest out-of-pocket costs, at an average of US$16,689 a year.
Outlook and Implications
The figures underscore the potential of a rise in the healthcare services burden in the United States. Currently, with the rate of incidence growing, there will be knock-on effects affecting costs related to treatment, particularly with respect to drugs, as well as hospital services. The forecast may draw the attention of the federal government, culminating in an Alzheimer's initiative that could look at providing extra support to healthcare delivery services.
The figures also highlight the potential for substantial growth in the Alzheimer's drugs market. So far, this market segment has been characterised by high-value treatments pursued by pharmaceutical firms. The prediction of a potential rise in Alzheimer's-related costs includes the costs of drugs, which means opportunities for pharma firms. IMS Health predicts that the Alzheimer's drugs market could reach US$5 billion in 2009, reflecting the growing opportunities in this market. Major drugs in this segment include Eisai/Pfizer's Aricept (donezepil) and Forest Labs' Namenda (memantine). Pharma firms with Alzheimer's drugs in the pipeline include Eisai (Japan), Elan/Wyeth (U.S.), and GlaxoSmithKline (U.K.). One of the most promising drugs in this segment includes bapineuzumab, which is undergoing Phase III clinical trials. Myriad Genetics' Flurizan (tarenflurbil) is another promising candidate in this segment, highlighting the growing investment from pharma majors in the Alzheimer's drug market.