IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The attempted hijacking of the U.S.-flagged Maersk Alabama last week drew global attention to rife maritime piracy in the Gulf of Aden; despite the killing of three pirates brazen attacks have continued this week. |
Implications | The Gulf of Aden is a bottleneck into the Red Sea and the security situation is a major concern to ship owners and increasingly to international navies. U.S. president Barack Obama announced earlier this week that his country's navy will step up its anti-piracy activities, as are other leading naval powers. |
Outlook | The resourceful and economically desperate pirates have shown that they can defy even the most powerful navies, and while ship owners will draw some comfort from the intensified international engagement, the problem is unlikely to abate while Somalia remains acutely unstable. |
Danger on the High Seas
Armed with grenade launchers and automatic weapons, pirates have become ever more brazen in their attacks on shipping passing through the Gulf of Aden. Most originate from lawless Somalia, where the promise of lucrative ransoms outweighs the risks for many. The problem is not new, but it has increasingly preoccupied leading naval powers in recent weeks after a series of high-profile incidents. The most prominent of these was the attempted hijacking of the U.S.-flagged (and Danish-owned) Maersk Alabama last week. The pirates failed to commandeer the vessel, but took American captain Richard Phillips hostage aboard one of the freighter's lifeboats. He was ultimately rescued when snipers aboard the USS Bainbridge killed three of the pirates, a dramatic story which topped the global news agenda over the weekend. In previous weeks several other attacks had hit the headlines, most notably one on a French yacht. In this case, the French skipper was killed during an attempted rescue by the French Navy.
It is difficult to get accurate data on the scale of the piracy problem, but reports come in of several attempts every day. Another American cargo ship, the Liberty Sun, was attacked yesterday with grenade launchers and automatic weapons, but managed to escape and deliver humanitarian food aid to the Kenyan port of Mombasa. It was escorted there by the USS Bainbridge, which still had Phillips on board. Illustrating the difficulties navies face, the warship only managed to reach the Liberty Sun hours after the pirates had fled. The area of sea involved is very large, and the pirates have struck further and further from the Somali coast in recent months. Successful hijacks were carried out yesterday of Greek and Togolese freighters (the latter Lebanese-owned), according to the European Union (EU) and NATO respectively. NATO reported another Liberian-flagged vessel came under attack but escaped, while the Egyptian Foreign Ministry said two Egyptian tugs had been commandeered this week. A U.S.-owned, Italian-flagged tugboat was reported hijacked on 11 April. NATO reports that a total of 16 ships are currently being held for ransom off Somalia, although the International Maritime Bureau puts the figure at 19, with a total of 300 crew onboard. The average length of captivity for such crew is 53 days, and generally they have not been mistreated. Generally the ships' cargoes are not unloaded because of the lack of docking facilities. Oil tankers have been particularly prized by the pirates because of the value of the cargo to owners and because they are slow-moving. The crews will also try to avoid any firefight given the potential for igniting vapour.
Many of the attacks receive a lower profile because the ships involved originate from less high-profile countries. Much of the world's cargo fleet chooses to sail under so-called "flags of convenience" which entail lighter regulation and costs; the primary reason these days that some ships are U.S.-flagged is that this entitles them to contract for the U.S. military. Nonetheless, with the number of attacks on Western-flagged ships continuing to rise, these countries are being forced to adopt a more muscular response. This might be expected to help deter the pirates, but it could also increase risks to the safety of existing and future hostages. Spokesmen for the Somali pirates have suggested that they will take retribution on American crew members for their slain colleagues. In the past, shipping firms have generally elected to pay ransoms rather than risk their crews and vessels, but with the problem now so rife this tactic is arguably proving counterproductive. The International Maritime Bureau reports that a total of 78 ships have been attacked this year alone, compared to around 150 during the whole of 2008. Ship owners have considered arming crews, but this again potentially creates risks (both security and legal) as much as it deters the pirates. Many ports impose strict controls on weapons carried aboard ships in any case. The debate is similar to that which has raged over commercial aviation, where fears that attackers could seize crew members' weapons have been among the reasons for not arming them.
U.S. Administration Forced to React
The problem attained such a high profile this week that U.S. president Barack Obama was forced to address the matter. He vowed on 13 April to "halt the rise of piracy" in the region, but was light on specifics. His decision to allow snipers to kill the pirates holding Phillips does set a precedent for a more lethal approach. It is likely that more U.S. warships will be deployed to the area, that ship owners will be assisted with bolstering the security of their vessels, and that greater international cooperation will be pursued. Already there is a flotilla of ships stationed in the area from the United States, the European Union (EU), Iran, Russia, India, China, Japan, and other nations. Defence Secretary Robert Gates later told a Marine audience that: "All I can tell you is I am confident we will be spending a lot of time in the Situation Room over the next few weeks trying to figure out what in the world to do about this problem." The administration acknowledges that there are no easy military solutions, and that the situation on-shore also needs to be addressed. Gates said: "There is no purely military solution to it. And as long as you've got this incredible number of poor people and the risks are relatively small, there's really no way in my view to control it unless you get something on land that begins to change the equation for these kids." The pirates who attacked the Maersk Alabama were reportedly between 17 and 19 years old. The longer-term answer is indeed helping the country's transitional government to establish itself, to enforce the rule of law, and to provide attractive legitimate economic opportunities. In the more immediate term, it might be a case of attacking pirate bases on shore and persuading the authorities to accept direct assistance. The United States is reluctant to get heavily involved in Somalia after the intervention 16 years ago which saw two helicopters shot down and 18 American soldiers killed. The administration is also reluctant to do anything which will stretch its armed forces even further than they are already with the Afghan and Iraqi operations ongoing. Aside from combating piracy, another incentive for greater U.S. engagement is preventing the country being used as a haven for Islamic extremists.
There was another reminder for the United States of the acute security problems in Somalia this week when New Jersey Representative Donald M. Payne narrowly escaped a mortar attack in the Somali capital Mogadishu. Several rounds exploded close to his plane as it was taking off en route for Nairobi, Kenya. The chair of the House subcommittee on Africa was visiting the city against the advice of the administration. It is unclear if he was targeted specifically, or if this was one of a regular pattern of attacks on aviation. Islamist insurgent group, Al Shabab, claimed responsibility for the attack, which has also been responsible for numerous attacks against local government officials and regional African peacekeepers in recent months. Payne had met with Somalia's new president Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed and Prime Minister Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke. The last U.S. administration authorised several airstrikes against terrorism suspects in Somalia, and assisted a bloody Ethiopian intervention which overthrew Sheik Sharif's government of the time. Democrat Payne was among those who criticized the intervention at the time.
Outlook and Implications
Maritime piracy has of course existed for centuries, but the problems off Somalia are exceptionally acute and impossible to ignore. Elsewhere, piracy hotspots have tended to show declining activity in recent years, including the Strait of Malacca between Indonesia and Malaysia. There were signs earlier in the year that the problem off Somalia was ebbing as the international presence was stepped up, but the picture has abruptly changed in recent weeks. It seems more favourable weather conditions have been the major factor behind the upsurge. Pirates have also been using previous ransoms to improve their military and technical arsenal, including faster speed boats and latest GPS technology. As already discussed, there are no easy solutions. Although the latest upsurge in attacks and the resulting response by the U.S. and French governments will no doubt lead to an increase in the current international naval presence in the region, there is a risk that the root cause of the crisis will be ignored—the continued political and security crisis in Somalia. The country has been operating without a viable central government for near on two decades, with the current internationally recognised government unable to sufficiently administrate Mogadishu (the capital) let alone provide security for ships passing its long coast on the Indian Ocean. The international community, including the United States is wary of fresh efforts to stabilise Somalia after witnessing numerous failed attempts. Instead ill-thought-out and short-term solutions have been adopted which have proven counter-productive in the longer-term. However, the time has surely come to make another fresh attempt to stabilise Somalia, in coordination with all local and regional actors and without any preconditions which have in the past excluded key players who have undermined such efforts. In the meantime, shipping costs continue to rise as more circuitous routes are chosen, insurance premiums are hiked, security precautions are upgraded, and ransoms are extracted.