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Same-Day Analysis

PSA Group Reports Q1 Revenue, Sales Slump—Outlook "Uncertain"

Published: 22 April 2009
PSA has recorded a big slump in first-quarter revenues as it is exposed by its over-reliance on the Western European market.

IHS Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance

PSA Peugeot-Citroën has reported a 24.9% slump in its first-quarter revenues to 10.97 billion euro amid the downturn in the global passenger car market.

Implications

France's number-one carmaker has already confirmed that it expects a full-year loss in 2009 as it continues to battle overwhelmingly difficult conditions in Western Europe, the company's biggest regional market.

Outlook

PSA Peugeot-Citroën faces an enormous challenge in maintaining market share in its principal Western European markets at a time when there are simply too many mid-market automotive brands chasing a diminishing pool of customers. However, the company's efficient range of powertrains and a strategy to move the Citroën brand upmarket provide hope for the future.

France's number-one carmaker, PSA Peugeot-Citroën, has reported that its sales revenues in the first quarter of this year fell by 24.9% year-on-year (y/y) to 10.97 billion euro (US$14.19 billion). This figure relates to the whole group and includes the revenues of component manufacturer Faurecia, as well as the company's finance arm, Banque PSA Finance. Taken in isolation, the company's automotive sales fell at a slightly slower rate of 23% y/y to 8.68 billion euro, in comparison to 11.27 billion euro in the same period last year. PSA said in a press release publishing its revenue figures that its own full-year forecast for the European passenger car market takes into account a 20% fall. As a result, as PSA had already announced in February, the company expects to make a substantial loss for the full year in 2009 and incur negative cash flow (see France: 11 February 2009: PSA Peugeot-Citroën Reports FY 2008 Net Loss, Seeking 11,000 Voluntary Departures in 2009). In response, PSA has already taken what it describes as proactive measures to shore up its capital base and ensure that it has sufficient liquidity to survive the hostile environment in its most important market. The French government has already offered PSA (as well as rival Renault) 3 billion euro in low-interest loans, as well as a further 400 million euro from the European Investment Bank (EIB). However, the group still needs to source a further 600 million euro in order to fulfil its own stated 2009 funding requirement of 4 billion euro. PSA stated that it is making progress on its previously announced CASH 2009 programme, which is aimed at reducing the company's large vehicle inventory and cutting costs as much as possible.

In terms of its market activity, PSA remains strongly dependent on the European market and the strong decline in the company's first-quarter revenues can be attributed to the wide-scale slump in demand in this market over the past six months following the advent of the global banking and financial crisis. In its press release PSA stated that the combined Western European market fell by 18.5% during the first quarter, although the scrappage incentives in Germany and France had had a positive effect on the company's sales. The company's sales in Germany rose by 21.3% y/y during the first quarter, according to IHS Global Insight's data, to 554,794 units, with the company saying that this equated to an increase in market share in Germany from 5.7% to 6.0%. However, given PSA's strong representation in the lower vehicle segments, with the A-segment Peugeot 107 and Citroën C1 and the B-segment Peugeot 207 and Citroën C2, this actually represents a somewhat disappointing result given the large gains experienced by other small-car manufacturers such as Fiat as a result of the German market's 2,500-euro scrappage incentive. In France the company also claimed an increase in market share, from 32.6% to 33.3%, but this was in the context of an overall market that declined by 7.3% in the first quarter, according to PSA's data. In terms of the overall European market, PSA claimed that it maintained a share of 13.8%, recording sales of 452,000 units. In Central and Eastern Europe, where the market declined by 38.5% y/y as a whole, the group managed a 1.2-percentage-point gain in market share to 8.2%, thanks to an improved presence in Turkey, although this represented only a small overall sales total of 30,000 units. In China the company suffered a highly disappointing performance, with sales actually falling by 3.9% to 52,000 units, despite a rise in the overall market of 3.9% during the same period. The company recorded a 32.7% rise in sales in Russia to 13,000 units despite a collapse of 40.3% in the overall market, but this figure also reflects the low base of comparison for the company in this market.

Outlook and Implications

PSA is massively reliant on the Western European market and its financial fortunes are intertwined with its biggest sales region. As a result, the company's revenues and sales mirrored the decline in the Western European market in the first quarter of 2009. This almost complete reliance on the Western European market must be classed as a major structural weakness when viewed against carmakers with a truly global production and sales imprint, such as Volkswagen (VW) and Toyota, which may be better equipped to ride out the current recession as a result of this diversified global sales base. The company says that it maintained a 13.8% share of the Western European market in the first quarter of 2009, matching the figure it recorded for full-year 2008. However, given the array of scrappage incentives that have been introduced in the region that favour small, low-cost passenger cars with fuel-efficient, low-emission engines, this actually represents a somewhat disappointing result. This is especially the case given the performance of some of PSA's rivals in these segments, such as Fiat, which saw a 69.3% y/y increase in sales in Germany in the first quarter as a result of the scrappage incentives. This compares with PSA Peugeot-Citroën's relatively feeble 21.3% increase. Given the group's strong representation in the small-car segment, a stronger performance might have been expected. Meanwhile, given the weak performance of the European car market, PSA is pursuing the correct strategy highlighted by its CAP 2010 and CASH 2009 initiatives, which aim to reduce vehicle inventory and costs.
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