IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Polish regulator UKE has released data on the local telecoms market in 2008, estimating the total value at 48.6 billion zlotys (US$14.6 billion)—18.5% more than in 2007. |
Implications | Last year saw Netia emerging clearly as the largest alternate on the back of acquisitions, with cableco UPC remaining incumbent TP's biggest broadband rival. In the mobile market, Polkomtel and Orange competed head-to-head, both controlling almost one-third of the market. |
Outlook | As TP's quarterly results indicate, the market's growth rate will be notably slower this year, as the economic crisis eats into the companies' revenue. |
Based on the information it has received from the sector's companies, Poland's telecoms regulator UKE has released its report on the Polish telecommunication market in 2008.
The total value of telecommunication services amounted to 48.6 billion zlotys (US$14.6 billion), which was 18.5% more than the 41 billion zlotys generated in 2007 (see Poland: 6 February 2009: Total Value of Polish Telecoms Sector at US$11.4 bil. in 2007—Regulator).
Selected Data
Fixed Telephony
In terms of revenue, incumbent Telekomunikacja Polska (TP) held 74.5% of the fixed-line telephony segment, with the alternative telcos controlling 24.6% of the market. This compares against the incumbent market shares of 77.5% and 78.4% in 2007 and 2006 respectively. Netia was the largest alternate, having generated 6% of the revenue, followed by Tele2's 5.4%—which was acquired by Netia in last June (see Poland: 24 February 2009: Netia Reports 414,000 Broadband Subs; Q4 Revenue Up 79.4% Y/Y) and Telefonia Dialog's 4.6%. The total value of the fixed voice services was 7.5 billion zlotys, which was 13.5% less than in 2007.
Fixed Internet
In the fixed-line Internet market, the ISPs generated combined revenue of 2.56 billion zlotys, up 8% from 2.37 billion in 2007 and 8.5% from 2.36 billion in 2006. As the regulator's earlier update on the Internet market showed, TP's market share stood at 45%—it was followed by UPC's 8.8%, Netia's 6.1%, Multimedia Polska's 5.2%, Vectra's 4.1%, Aster's 3.6% and Telefonia Dialog's 2.9% (see Poland: 17 April 2009: Polish Fixed Broadband Penetration Reaches 11.7% as UPC Launches 30-Mbps Offering).
Mobile
In the mobile segment, the UKE reported that the total size of the clientele reached 43 million, which represented a penetration rate of 115.2 per 100 inhabitants—however, 17.7% of the users were considered inactive, and if these were excluded the real penetration rate would stood at 97.5%. Polkomtel was the frontrunner with a market share of 32.95%, followed by Orange's 32.29%, PTC's 29.48% and Play's 4.57%; the MVNO's accounted for 0.71% of the market. According to the regulator, the market's monthly ARPU was 59.42 zlotys, which compares against 58.48 zlotys in 2007 and 61.01 zlotys in 2006.
Outlook and Implications
- Tougher Times in 2009: In 2009, we expect the sector's growth to slow down drastically, as the ongoing economic crisis takes its toll on the companies' revenues across the market (see Poland: 28 April 2009: Telekomunikacja Polska's Q1 Revenue Down 4.7% Y/Y). Particularly the mobile market, which has witnessed an ignition of an all-out price war since the beginning of the year, will be a tough environment to operate—let alone enter, as indicated by the request of Mobyland, a new GSM licensee, for additional time to launch services (see Poland: 16 April 2009: Mobyland Requests More Time to Meet Licensing Conditions in Polandand Poland: 18 March 2009: Play's New Prepaid Offering Brings Prices Further Down in Poland). Also the UKE's new interconnection fees, to be lowered further at end-June, are adding pressure on the mobile sector's fortunes (see Poland: 13 January 2009: Lower Mobile Termination Rates Come Into Effect in Poland). In the fixed-line segment, the recession will possibly result in further consolidation, as Netia—the leading alternate, which thus far seems to have been able to shrug off the crisis relatively well—eyes opportunities to acquire struggling competitors. Besides small, region-based Ethernet carriers potential targets include also Telefonia Dialog, which might be put on sale in the course of year by its owner, mining group KGHM (see Poland: 6 April 2009: Netia Ups EBITDA Forecast to US$88 mil. in Poland and Poland: 7 April 2009: CEO Reiterates Netia's Interest in Acquisitions).