IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Jacob Zuma led the ANC to a comprehensive victory at the 22 April national and provincial elections, with the party winning just under 66% of the vote for the National Assembly and control of eight out of nine provincial assemblies. |
Implications | Despite his colourful past and well-documented legal problems, Zuma has been the country's presumptive president ever since the ANC picked him as its leader back in December 2007. |
Outlook | Once the formalities of his election are out of the way, Zuma will be expected to announce his first government line-up shortly after his official inauguration on Saturday (9 May). Investors will closely study his team, which will be made up of old government hands and newcomers, for signs of any change in policy direction. |
Following the successful conclusion of South Africa's recent general election, the country's parliament will hold its maiden sitting today. The 400 National Assembly members are drawn from the candidate lists of the political parties that received enough votes during the 22 April general election, with seats being allocated to parties in proportion to their share of the popular vote (see South Africa: 27 April 2009: Election 2009: ANC Under Pressure to Deliver Following Sweeping Victory in South Africa). According to the official document released by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) last week, the list of designated members is led by the ruling African National Congress (ANC) with 264 members, followed by the Democratic Alliance (DA) with 67. The breakaway ANC party—the Congress of the People—is next with 30, followed by Inkatha Freedom Party with 18; Independent Democrats (4); United Democratic Movement (4); Freedom Front Plus (4); African Christian Democratic Party (3); United Christian Democratic Party (2); and the African People's Convention, the Azanian People's Organisation, Minority Front, and Pan Africanist Congress of Azania with 1 seat each (see South Africa: 30 April 2009: Election 2009: South African Electoral Commission Releases Members List for New Parliament).
The highlight of today's first session of the fourth parliament is the election of a new head of state. According to the South African constitution, the head of state is elected from among the assembly's members at the first sitting of a new parliament after an election. If more than one nomination is made, an election by secret ballot is held. However, given the ANC's dominance of the new parliament, Zuma—as the party's leader—will be the sole candidate and will emerge as the country's new head of state when the formalities are completed. The occasion will be presided over by Chief Justice Pius Langa, who will also oversee the election of a new parliamentary speaker, deputy speaker, and the swearing-in of the new members of parliament.
Outlook and Implications
After his election as president, Zuma will cease to be a member of the National Assembly and within five days must formally assume office by swearing or affirming faithfulness to the Republic and obedience to the constitution. The president-elect's inauguration ceremony is actually scheduled to take place at the Union Buildings in the capital, Pretoria, on Saturday (9 May) and is expected to be attended by heads of state and representatives from around the world.
Once in office, Zuma's first act as president will be the announcement of his first cabinet, which is expected to be made as early as Sunday (10 May). Given the foregone nature of the recent election and Zuma's long-predicted accession to power, there has been intense speculation over the identity of the new ministers, and investors will look particularly closely at the line-up for signs of any change in the ANC's hitherto market-friendly economic policy. To this end, many will see the retention of highly respected Finance Minister Trevor Manuel in the government as crucial, whether remaining in his current post or taking on a position that will allow him to remain at the heart of the government's economic policy formulation.
The pressure on the incoming administration to continue with the current economic policies will, however, be balanced with the equally pressing need for the government to improve on the delivery of vital services to the country's historically disadvantaged black majority—the ANC's core constituents. However, with the South African economy about to enter into a recession, this challenge is likely to be even trickier than usual, and one that will no doubt test the capabilities of Zuma's new administration.