IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The approval comes after a string of nine fires at the plant that prompted the government to publicly chastise TEPCO and force the company to submit measures to prevent future accidents. Any further accidents during the trial start-up process are likely to result in the unit's re-closure. |
Implications | The decision has been opposed by a number of scientists who question the facility’s ability to withstand 7.5-magnitude earthquakes, citing evidence of a major fault-line adjacent to the plant, although the government's decision suggests it believes the plant's capacity to withstand quakes of magnitude 7 is sufficient. |
Outlook | The restart will help TEPCO to save an estimated 500 billion yen (US$5.03 billion) over the coming year from imports of fossil fuels, allowing the company to offset an expected 0.3% fall in electricity sales this year and keep a pledge to turn a profit in 2009 after two consecutive years of losses. |
Nuclear Restart
Governor of Niigata prefecture Hirohiko Izumida has expressed his intention to give approval for the restart of the 1,356-MW advanced boiling-water reactor called Unit 7 at the massive Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear power plant in Japan. The announcement was made at a prefectural assembly session and follows previous approvals granted by the city of Kashiwazaki, the village of Kariwa, and the federal Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA). TEPCO could launch trial runs at the reactor as soon as tomorrow, according to the Nikkei newspaper. However, commercial operations at Unit 7 are only expected to start following a 40—50 day test period during which additional safety checks will be carried out. Any problems during this period could result in the rector being shut down again, according to the governor.
Safety Concerns
The approval for the restart of Unit 7 comes almost two years after all seven reactors at Kashiwazaki Kariwa were shut following the 6.8-magnitude Chuetsu offshore earthquake, which caused more damage to the facility than was predicted in its original design, causing an electric transformer to catch fire, more than 400 barrels of contaminated waste to topple over, and water from a spent fuel rod to leak into the ocean. Local residents were also concerned over TEPCO's announcement in December 2007 that it had known since 2003 that a fault-line ran near the site, contradicting a survey previously submitted by the company to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). Previous allegations against TEPCO for fabricating safety data from as far back as the 1980s also undermined confidence in the plant's safety. The tightening of earthquake safety standards for Japan's nuclear power plants (NPP) in 2006 and the upgrade of Kashawazaki-Kariwa, which now has the capacity to withstand magnitude-7 earthquakes, has helped allay safety fears to some extent. However, concerns remain. A number of scientists have argued that the plant should be able to withstand a 7.5-magnitude earthquake, pointing to evidence of a major seafloor fault-line next to the plant. The government, however denies the existence of this fault-line, claiming that there is only a 36-km long crack in the seafloor which it believes is not a branched faultline of a larger crack, thus it believes that further upgrades to the plant are unnecessary. The government's decision has been signed off by 70 government-appointed scientists, but concerns remain among non-government appointed scientists and local residents.
In addition, a string of nine fires at the plant during maintenance work have heightened concerns over safety procedures, causing the governor to postpone a decision on the nuclear reactor's restart in April pending the submission of further measures by TEPCO to prevent future accidents (see Japan: 14 April 2009: Government Angered by Series of Fires at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP in Japan). Tokyo Electric appears to have now submitted these proposals and has pledged to make safety "the top priority" at Kashiwazaki Kariwa. These moves appear to have satisfied the local authorities. Indeed, the local prefectural assembly with which Izumida still needs to discuss the restart is reportedly supportive, suggesting that Unit 7 could launch commercial operations as soon as July.
Outlook and Implications
TEPCO is keen to restart Unit 7 as quickly as possible, given losses inflicted on the company in 2008 due to the costs of purchasing fossil fuels at peak prices for thermal power generation to make up for lost generating capacity from Kashiwazaki-Kariwa. Generating capacity from the plant accounts for approximately 20% of the company's total and TEPCO estimates that it would incur 500 billion yen (US$5.8 billion) in fuel costs if the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP stayed shut in FY 2009-10. Indeed, TEPCO has already embarked on a programme aimed at cutting costs of 50 billion yen in 2009/10, given an expected fall in electricity sales, which the company predicts will decline by 0.3% over the coming year on the back of weak demand from the industrial sector. The restart of Unit 7 will also help the company to keep its promise to shareholders of returning a profit in 2009-10 for the first time in three years. TEPCO expects its annual crude consumption to fall by around 32,000 b/d, or 1.87 million kilolitres a year, following the restart. This will exert some modest downward pressure on Japan's crude oil imports, which have already slumped over the past months reaching 3.68 million b/d in March due to the global economic slowdown. The reduced reliance on burning fossil fuels will have environmental benefits in the form of reduced carbon emissions for the company, which have already fallen in Japan due to reduced industrial activity in recent months. This will help Japan to meet its Kyoto Protocol target of cutting emissions by an average of 6% from the FY 1990 emissions level by 2012 (see Japan: 12 November 2008: Japan Posts Increase in Carbon Emissions for FY2007).
The restart of Unit 7 will pave the way for the other six reactors at the 8,212-MW Kashawazaki-Kariwa to come back online. A schedule for the other six units has not yet been set, although repair work has been progressing on the 1,356-MW Unit 6, (the joint largest with Unit 7) suggesting it would be the next generator to come back online.
