IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Yesterday marks the third consecutive day of unrest in the Iranian capital and in a number of major cities across the country. |
Implications | The mass rally sends a powerful signal to Iran's Supreme Leader and the 12-member Guardian Council that protesters will not easily abandon efforts to have the election annulled. The Supreme Leader has ordered an inquiry into the results, a sign that the pressure on the conservative leadership is growing. |
Outlook | Meanwhile, tensions are reaching critical levels as seven fatalities were reported in yesterday's protests. The authorities are clamping down harshly on the rapidly growing opposition movement, setting the stage for further clashes as Ahmedinejad supporters move to hold counter-rallies. However, the mounting fervour has increased pressure on the Guardian Council to review the election results. |
Hundreds of thousands, according to some reports as many as 2 million, opposition supporters gathered at a banned rally in Tehran yesterday to continue their protest against President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad's ''stolen election". Supporters of the defeated presidential candidate, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, defied a ban on gathering imposed by the Interior Ministry. Along with a number of reformist leaders, including former president Mohammad Khatami and his brother Reza Mohammad Khatami, Mousavi joined the crowds after keeping a relatively low profile over the weekend. Standing on a car roof, Mousavi emerged from within the ocean of people to give a much-awaited speech to his supporters. His presence at the mostly peaceful demonstration is critical for the cohesion and momentum of the largely spontaneous and loosely interconnected group that has taken on the mantle of the opposition. Although mostly made up of youths, the movement has united a varied cross-section of Iranian society; their mutual aim is the annulment of last week's presidential results, which saw the incumbent score a landslide re-election victory with some 63% of the vote. Mousavi on the other hand, who had been tipped as a strong rival to Ahmedinejad, won 34% of the vote (see Iran: 15 June 2009: Election 2009: Violence Rages in Iran over Disputed Presidential Contest Results). Their strength in comparison with other mass protests in Iran shows the impact this election has had, not only ordinary Iranians, but also on the reformist political elite.
The past three days have seen unprecedented demonstrations in Iran’s main cities by protesters over what some observers have called a "military coup". Although the security forces, the police, Revolutionary Guards, and the Basij paramilitary volunteer force, have attempted to quell the mounting protests—mostly without using live ammunition—yesterday, Iranian state radio reported the first fatalities. Seven people were killed in the aftermath of a largely peaceful mass rally as some protestors apparently went on to attack the headquarters for the Basij forces. Elsewhere, in Shiraz security forces have raided student dormitories and further protests have been reported in Rasht, Zahedan, Tabriz, Orumiyeh, and Isfahan, indicating that unrest may spread further. The possibility of further unrest has been raised as Mousavi supporters plan to hold further rallies today in Valiasr Square in Tehran, only hours after Ahmedinejad supporters are reported to stage a mass show of force.
Buckling Under Pressure?
The growing protests, which now appear to be spreading to other cities, are putting significant pressure on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and on the 12-member Guardian Council which effectively vets all political decisions in Iran. In what appears to be a rare U-turn, Khamenei who endorsed the results on Saturday (13 June)—and is a known backer of Ahmedinejad—has vowed to issue a full inquiry into the electoral results. According to Reuters, the Guardian Council, which has until now remained silent in the face of the ongoing turbulence, has reportedly called the official election results "provisional" indicating that the council could agree to a recount. Furthermore, the Guardian Council has, according to the BBC, said that all three opposition candidates, Mehdi Karroubi, Mohsen Rezai, and Mir-Hossein Mousavi have been called in to meet with the council today. This follows Mousavi’s official request to the Guardian Council on Sunday for an annulment of the polls. Furthermore, a recorded message from the Supreme Leader calling for a full investigation into fraud allegations is reportedly being played on state radio at regular intervals. Meanwhile, the president himself has been noticeably absent from the public scene since his triumphant victory speech in Valiasr Square on Sunday. He is headed today for a regional summit in Moscow in clear defiance of the protests on Iranian streets. Furthermore, the BBC reports today that Internet access has been freed up, its satellite has been unblocked, and communications appear to be functioning smoothly for now.
Outlook and Implications
As the protests against Ahmedinejad’s so-called stolen election show no sings of abating, the initially cautious international responses to recent events have taken a harsh turn. Yesterday, France called in the Iran’s ambassador to voice its concerns over the election results and the growing protests. The European Union (EU) is expected to issue a statement today which will likely condemn the situation, while U.S. president Barack Obama made his first comments on the issue yesterday. Although keeping a relatively moderate tone, saying: "We respect Iranian sovereignty and want to avoid the United States being the issue inside of Iran," he also said he was "deeply troubled" by the violence.
The international community cannot be blamed for fumbling in response to the truly unprecedented events unfolding in Iran. Treading on unfamiliar territory as mass protests continue in a country where freedoms are strictly controlled and anti-government rallies are extremely rare, any prediction of what the near future may hold should be made with care. What is certain today is the noticeable shift in the Supreme Leader and the Guardian Council’s tone in dealing with the growing demonstrations. However, a closer look at emerging statements indicates that perhaps the council is merely sustaining a façade of due process. A statement by Iran’s official news agency IRNA, carried by Agence France-Presse (AFP), said earlier today: "If the Guardian Council reaches the conclusion that such offences as buying votes or using fake identity cards have been committed...it will order a recount." This falls well short of an investigation into the complete vote rigging that opposition candidates and street protestors claim took place. Furthermore, a recount may not serve the purposes of the opposition at all as it could very well result in a repeat of the original vote count. With 10 days to give their official decree on the election results the Guardian Council may attempt to wait out the protests to see whether they lessen in scope and determination. Furthermore, as IHS Global Insight has stressed previously, it is difficult at this point to imagine that the elections will be annulled; that would be tantamount to admitting electoral fraud and would seriously undermine the legitimacy of the Supreme Leader. However, if protests persist the outcome of these rare events could be highly unpredictable.