Greek State Shaken But Not Toppled by Execution of Policeman

In the early hours of 17 June, masked gunmen executed Greek witness protection officer Antonios N. Savvas in the densely populated residential district of Ano Patissia in Athens. Savvas was a member of the counter-terrorism squad, and guarding a key witness in the trial against one of Greece's most notorious terrorist organisations, the far-left People's Revolutionary Struggle (ELA). Back in 2004, four people were convicted and sentenced to 25 years in prison due to their links with the ELA. They all appealed against the verdict, which led to a reopening of the case. The witness Savvas was guarding is the ex-wife of an ELA member; she had testified against her ex-husband earlier in the year. Police are currently talking to eye-witnesses and collecting evidence. So far, no one has claimed responsibility for Savvas's murder. Yet the spokesperson for the Greek National Police Panagiotis Stathis described the execution as a "the work of terrorists".

Shaken But Not Toppled

There are reasons to be very concerned about Savvas's killing. This was the first killing linked to Greek far-left terrorist organisations since the start of a series of bomb attacks in February 2009. It comes after almost monthly bomb attacks targeting financial service providers and police forces in large Greek cities, and thereby raises questions about the capacity of the police to rein in terrorist attacks. The killing may be described as the sign of emboldened terrorist organisations that are sprawling amid the current anti-government climate.

Public disgruntlement at bail-outs of banks and simultaneous cuts in public expenditure on social policies also prepared a good ground for such terrorist organisations to grow. The Greek economy is in recession; IHS Global Insight currently forecasts a contraction of real GDP of 1.4% in 2009 and a very modest rebound in 2010. This will also result in a sharp increase in unemployment, which will surely erode support for the government's policies among sceptical voters even more. Corruption, which Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis vowed to eradicate, is still flourishing—allegedly even in Karamanlis's own party (see Greece: 16 June 2009: Greek Ruling Party Starts Gradual Distancing from Unpopular Party Members). Unemployment rates remain stubbornly high at an average 8.65% between 2005 and 2008, affecting many young jobseekers in particular.

Although the attack certainly shocked many Greek journalists, it may not fully surprise them. The writing was on the wall in March 2009, when the far-left Revolutionary Struggle (Epanastikos Agonas; EA) announced that it would increasingly attack what it deemed the "political and financial elite" as well as the police, mostly by using devices with timers. In May 2009, the U.S. State Department put the EA on its list of international terrorist organisations (see United States - Greece: 19 May 2009: U.S. State Department Puts Another Greek Group on Terrorist List). The police force had lost much sympathy with Greek citizens following the poor handling of the student protests in December 2008. The protests started in response to the economic crisis and were targeted at the government, but turned on the police as time progressed. For different reasons, citizens blamed the police forces for the length and level of violence at the protests and the costly results for business operators.

The overarching impression by such persons is that the police let things get out of hand, which culminated in the fatal shooting of a 15-year-old protester by a policeman. Terrorist organisations such as the EA picked up on this notion of "having let things get out of hand" and have made it their prime justification for their attacks. This also helps explain the shift in targets of late; in January 2009, a policeman guarding the Ministry of Culture was seriously wounded by a gun attack from militants linked to the EA. In February, militants fired shots and threw a hand grenade into a police station in Athens, followed by a shooting at private television station Alter. In March, a bomb exploded 250 metres from the central police headquarters in Athens. Several minor terrorist attacks also took place that month in Athens and Thessaloniki, which affected Public Power Corporation (DEI), Greek employment organisation (OAED), a bureau for labour inspection and a branch of the Greek sports garment chain Sprider. This was followed by a greater focus on banks and other financial institutions up until the killing of Savvas, as terrorist organisations shifted their attention to what they deem "capitalist" institutions, which caused the economic downturn.

And yet recent terrorist attacks are unlikely to result in a wave of public protest to oust the government. Citizens disappointed with the police due to the December 2008 incident may regard Savvas's killing as an unfortunate, planned attack and show empathy for the beleaguered police. For all the government's shortcomings, protecting a witness may not be regarded as a crime even if this was done rather poorly. The shortcomings of the Greek state security forces have been well documented (see Greece: 25 February 2009: Repeat Prison Breakout Damages Greek Government's Reputation); according to media reports, many in the streets Savvas worked in knew that he was a witness police officer. Nor should investors take their money out of the country following the killing: and investors may worry more about serious attacks on financial service providers and businesses. The response of the police to Savvas's killing will speak volumes about the government's intention to keep FDI flowing into the country.

Outlook and Implications

It looks unlikely that Savvas's killing—as shocking as it may have been—will destabilise the government or the police greatly. Both have been strongly criticised for their handling of key responsibilities as of late; they are likely to support, rather than discredit, each other over Savvas's killing as this would only weaken them. Further, they both sit in a glass house as far as disgruntled voters are concerned—the government due to the economic downturn and the police due to a perceived fall in security in Greece—and should therefore not throw any stones at each other. Rather, Karamanlis will head a task force to convince worried investors and citizens with the reforms that the police and the government plan.

The EA is certain to continue its attacks in future. The police will try to avert such attacks and thus continue to be targets of EA shootings. Further, "capitalist"-deemed institutions will also continue to be the target of terrorist bomb attacks, although most are likely to cause little to no bodily harm. Hence, the government and the police have their work cut out and will most likely try to reform the police in a way to protect policemen better and avert attacks in the near future. Co-operation with the British Scotland Yard, as planned by the head of the police's counterterrorism unit, Dimitris Horianopoulos, and by high-ranking officials in the Ministry of Interior Affairs, are steps in such a direction.