IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | As expected, the Iranian authorities staged a mass crackdown on protestors following Ayatollah Khamenei's explicit call for demonstrations against the disputed election result to end. Their open defiance of the Supreme Leader is unprecedented and reveals the depth of Iran's current crisis. |
Implications | The security crackdown, which has led to at least 10 deaths and over 450 arrests, has forced protestors to organise themselves into pockets of resistance, particularly in the capital, paving the way for further bloody clashes with increasingly heavy-handed security personnel. |
Outlook | There is little doubt that Iran's leadership is facing the single most significant domestic crisis since the inception of the Islamic Republic in 1979. Although it is too early to talk of another revolution or a regime overthrow, the crisis is certainly one of authority and legitimacy; its full effects will only be understood with time. |
A Bloody Weekend
Demonstrations in Iran took a bloody turn this weekend as protestors openly defied a call by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in his Friday sermon last week (19 June) for all protests over the country’s heavily disputed presidential election result to end. At least 10 people have been killed according to state media, and as many as 457 have been arrested, including family members of the powerful cleric Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani who in recent weeks has emerged as a key challenger to the Supreme Leader. Unverified reports have put the death toll as high as 150 and the number of arrests as far higher than the official figure. However, due to heavy media restrictions which have saw foreign reporters arrested and expelled over the weekend, it is difficult to verify exact numbers and events. Many international news agencies have become reliant on sporadic information from first-hand accounts and information posted on the micro-blogging site Twitter and the social-networking site Facebook. Countless videos showing disturbing images of protestors clashing with police and other security personnel, particularly the widely feared Basij paramilitary volunteer militia, are being circulated on the Internet; however, in many cases it has been difficult to ascertain when and where events have taken place. State media reported on Saturday that the holy tomb of Imam Ruhollah Khomeini, the founding father of the Islamic Revolution and Republic, was attacked by a ''terrorist'' suicide bomber; if true this would be a near-unprecedented event in a country where suicide bombings are extremely rare.
Meanwhile, a video clip showing the death of a young woman named Neda, apparently shot dead by a member of the Basij on Saturday evening, has emerged as the single most telling image of this weekend’s crackdown, now circulated as a symbol of the street battles and the indiscriminate brutality of the regime. Despite the increasing restrictions on information, it is certain that the authorities have staged a heavy-handed crackdown on protestors using live ammunition, tear gas, batons, and water cannons to disperse the crowds as helicopters have been flying overhead in the capital. Although the unrest shows no signs of abating, heavy security has prevented protestors from coming out in their hundreds of thousands as they did for much of last week (see Iran: 16 June 2009: Election 2009: Iranian Opposition Stages Mass Rally, First Casualties Reported and Iran: 15 June 2009: Election 2009: Violence Rages in Iran over Disputed Presidential Contest Results). The largely peaceful mass protests seen then have given way to pockets of demonstrators who appear to be playing a deadly cat-and-mouse game in central Tehran with members of the police, the Basij, and the Revolutionary Guards who have been deployed to force protestors to heed Khamenei’s ultimatum.
An Ultimatum Ignored
In the face of mounting domestic and international criticism over the transparency of the presidential election, Khamenei’s ultimatum on Friday was stark and its rejection by myriad of disparate protestors speaks of the depth of mounting anger directed towards the regime. In an attempt to put an end to the growing public defiance of the regime, Khamenei used the Friday sermon as a platform to put an end to any lingering doubt where his final verdict on the unfolding events would lie. Reiterating his initial endorsement of the election result, Khamenei not only denied the possibility that mass fraud on the level which is being alleged could logistically have taken place, he declared the election a ''religious democratic event... It was a showing against dictators and oppressive regimes and for a show of support for religion and the system". Although coming out with what was effectively the first public endorsement of President Ahmedinejad, slamming the incumbent’s long-time critics, a significant part of Khamenei’s address was, as anticipated, directed against protestors, regime challengers, and enemy forces—a trump card often used by Iranian politicians to de-legitimise domestic challenges. Furthermore, numerous references were made to "the enemy" whose "masks" had been removed, and their true nature as opponents of the Islamic Republic revealed. These statements were followed by a harsh tirade against foreign governments, the British government in particular, but also the United States and the European Union (EU), something which has already ramped up tensions between the Islamic Republic and the nervous international community.
Outlook and Implications
More than anything else, Khamenei in his Friday sermon showed the limits of his tolerance of the ongoing protests, which he considered to be stirred by "infiltrating terrorists" and agents of foreign enemies. Khamenei’s failure to address the validity of some of the claims which have become the slogans of the widespread protests (calls for an annulment of the elections, for greater freedoms, and an end to serious rights breaches) has radicalised the protest movement and revealed for the first time to the public deep divisions within the country’s ruling elite. A limited acceptance published today by the 12-seat Guardian Council that irregularities have been found in some 50 provinces where it appears that the number of ballots cast exceed the size of the electorate, will not suffice to quell the unrest, nor the opposition’s demands, but will likely further fuel discontent.
This weekend, images emerged of protestors openly shouting "death to Khamenei" alongside cries of "death to [the] dictator", and even burning pictures of the Supreme Leader and President Ahmedinejad. Opposition candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi—who has emerged much by chance as a leader of the popular protests—issued yet another letter re-emphasising his call for an annulment of the elections in response to the growing state violence against protestors (see Iran: 18 June 2009: Election 2009: Day of Mourning Called by Opposition Leader as Protests Mount in Iran). In his letter Mousavi, although retaining his support for the roots of the Islamic Revolution, shows signs of political dissent beyond what he has been willing to undertake so far. In calling those that support the result of the election results "cheaters and liars" Mousavi is now effectively in open defiance of the Supreme Leader. On Saturday, rumours circulated across the Internet that Mousavi had declared himself "ready for martyrdom" in the face of the regime’s crackdown on protestors; his arrest is certainly a possibility at this point and may not have happened yet so as to only avoid fuelling further unrest. Meanwhile, Mousavi’s sentiments were reflected in a statement published by former president Mohammed Khatami who also on Saturday effectively defied the Supreme Leader in saying: "The provocative and insulting portrayal of our people who have been acting independently, and accusing their healthy civil protest to be an act of foreign influence is an example of the wrong policies that further distance people from our government."
It is difficult to overstate the significance of public statements such as these which for the first time show not only the possible emergence of a political opposition leadership, but a union between this emerging clique and a grassroots civil movement. Khatami and Mousavi’s statements have also been backed by opposition candidate Mehdi Karroubi and the dissident cleric Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazari who on Sunday declared three days of mourning to begin from Wednesday this week in protest against government violence towards demonstrators. Meanwhile, the emergence of Hashemi Rafsanjani, effectively as a supporter of the opposition, is indicative of a rare breach in the ruling system. Rafsanjani, who holds significant power through his position as the head of both the Expediency Council and the Assembly of Experts—the latter being the only body in Iran which has the power to unseat the Supreme Leader—has not made any public statements but is believed to be working behind the scenes in favour of the Mousavi camp. The temporary arrest of five of his family members, including his daughter should be read as a serious warning against the former president.
Iran’s clerical elite, which until now ruled the country through a semblance of consent, disguising disagreements over the decision-making process and political manoeuvrings within the corridors of power, could emerge from this crisis deeply divided. As IHS Global Insight has emphasised in our earlier coverage of the Iranian protests, it is unwise at this point to predict the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. The government remains very strong and retains the loyalty of the much-feared Revolutionary Guards, the Basij, and the standing army which will likely continue to be deployed until the final flames of unrest has been put out. Nevertheless, further protests cannot be ruled out and the events of the past couple of weeks will undoubtedly have important ramifications for the Islamic Republic even if the government manages to create a semblance of order in the relatively near future.