Controversial Tipaimukh Hydroelectric Dam Strains India-Bangladesh Relations

Damned by Tipaimukh?

India's High Commissioner to Bangladesh, Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, has said there is no international law that can prevent India from implementing the controversial Tipaimukh hydroelectric dam project, which has been criticised for its impact on the environment in the greater Sylhet region of Bangladesh and in the Manipur region of India. Speaking at a seminar organised by the Bangladesh-India Friendship Society, Chakravarty said that there is no international treaty on use of water resources, only a non-binding United Nations Convention which needs signing and ratification by another 35 countries including India and Bangladesh before it can enter into law. However, Chakravarty also reiterated that the project was aimed at generating hydroelectricity and helping flood control, and that it involved no diversion of water for irrigation purposes, and dismissed as "empty political slogans" claims that the dam would hinder the water flow into Bangladesh, leading to desertification in some regions of the country.

Chakravarty's comments came as the Bangladesh government announced that it would form an all-parliamentary team, led by former water resources minister Abdur Razzaq, to fix the country's policy on the dam. The committee would visit the dam area to review its impact on Bangladesh and then submit a report on the matter to parliament. Bangladesh's foreign minister Dipu Moni has reiterated that any outstanding disputes with India over the dam will be resolved through negotiations. In contrast the four-party opposition coalition—known as the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) and led by Begum Khaleda Zia—called the project "a death trap for Bangladesh", and has announced plans for a mass movement to pressure the Bangladesh government to oppose it. The BNP has also pledged to seek help from the international community including the UN to stop India from constructing the dam.

The recent tensions over the proposed Tipaimukh hydroelectric dam have been prompted by the Indian government's decision to renew construction, which was stalled in March 2007 due to protests both in Bangladesh and within the Manipur region. Indeed, in 1998 the Manipur assembly passed a resolution not to implement the project given its purported destructive environmental and social impacts, although in 2003 the project was cleared by India's Public Investments Board and the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) paving the way for its revival. The Tipaimukh dam was originally designed to contain flood waters in the lower Barak valley, and the hydropower element was only introduced later, perhaps to better promote the beneficial impacts of the project in the face of rising criticism. The project will have an installed capacity of 1500 megawatts (MW) consisting of six 250-MW units. However, its firm generation will only be around 401MW, according to the North Eastern Electric Power Corporation (NEEPCO), or less than 30% of its original capacity. Although Tipaimukh will effectively wipe out Manipur's power deficit, its ability to significantly reduce power shortages in the wider region will be rather limited, particularly in the dry season. For Bangladesh, however, the dam promises fewer benefits and greater risks. According to some reports Bangladesh will receive a discount on surplus electricity generated from the project, but only after priority consumers in India are supplied. Bangladesh is somewhat of a second-rate customer. The experience of another project, called the Farakka Barrage, previously implemented by India will also have made Bangladesh wary of Indian assurances that the Tipaimukh dam project will not reduce water flows. The reduction in water from the Farakka Barrage caused a number of problems for Bangladesh, such as reduction in agricultural output, river transportation problems, and increased salinity threatening animal and marine life and industrial activities, which the Bangladesh opposition could play on to increase opposition to the project. While the Tipaimukh project is a dam (not a barrage) and may have varying environmental and social impacts, the Indian government has refrained from sharing technical information on the project—including a study report on the impact of the dam on downstream regions. The lack of substantive consultation on the dam has increased Bangladesh's suspicions of the project. India's High Commissioner has pointed to meetings of the joint rivers commission in the 1970s as evidence that Bangladesh had been consulted on the construction of dams. However, the amount of time that has elapsed since these meetings is just one indication that more consultation is needed, particularly on questions of mutual concern such as the possibility of increased seismic activity from the dam that could affect both nations.

Outlook and Implications

India is keen to press on with the Tipaimukh project and is targeting 2012 as the date for completion of the dam. In order to assuage concerns within the provincial government, project partners have given the government of Manipur a 5% stake in the proposed Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) that will implement the project. The potential revenue streams will help dilute opposition from within the local authorities. NEEPCO is now aiming for project approval from the Mizoram Forest Department by the end of June 2009, as well as from the Mizoram government. The Mizoram government, however, appears in favour of the project. Indeed, the authorities' pressing of the project partners to entrust major contracts for realignment of roads to Mizoram Public Works Department, (the department entrusted with construction of state government buildings for Mizoram) suggests that they are more trying to negotiate terms to win contracts and boost revenue streams from the project rather than question its environmental and social impacts.

The Bangladesh government is currently undecided about the project, in contrast to popular opinion in the country which is more resolutely opposed. While the fact-finding mission is a commendable attempt to objectively assess the impact of the hydroelectric dam, a lengthy investigation could mean the Bangladesh government will be presented with a fait accompli, as India is now pushing forward the project seemingly regardless of Bangladesh's concerns. Indeed, Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) tenders for the project are due to be opened by the end of this month. If the government's fact-finding mission is seen as ineffective and out of touch with events on the ground, the local population is more likely to demonstrate. Moreover, the BNP, which is championing opposition to the project, is weak in parliament following its crushing defeat at the hands of the Bangladesh Awami League in the 2008 general election. Its ability to influence government policy through parliamentary channels is therefore rather limited, although it could derive considerable political capital by opportunistically linking nationalist sentiments with the hydroelectric project. Incentives to whip up local sentiment against the project are relatively high, which also suggests demonstrations and social unrest is more likely.