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Same-Day Analysis

Generic Competition Plagues UCB and Solvay in H1 as Growth from New Drugs is Slow to Materialise

Published: 03 August 2009
UCB is gearing up for a marketing offensive with Cimzia and Vimpat, while Solvay is beginning to feel positive effects from TriCor and Trilipix.

IHS Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance

Belgium's top two drug-makers, UCB and Solvay Pharmaceuticals, have posted losses in profits for the first half of 2009.

Implications

Generic competition is the main culprit of the two firms' poor performances, but new drug launches in key markets bode well for UCB's future. Solvay Pharmaceuticals continues to see overall sales growth, but faces a legal battle over patent protection to its top-selling drug, Androgel.

Outlook

UCB's new drugs will take time to develop strong market growth and the firm is therefore sticking to its guidance of falling full-year revenues for 2009. Meanwhile, little in Solvay Pharma's first-half results should change its prospects as an acquisition target.

Belgian drug-makers UCB and Solvay Pharmaceuticals have published their financial results for the first half of 2009, revealing challenging times faced by the country’s two biggest pharma players. At UCB, first-half sales fell by 10.2% year-on-year (y/y) to 1.4 billion euro (US$2 billion), plagued by generic competition to top brands. On the upside, UCB also saw a 35% y/y rise to 114 million euro in royalties, thanks to Pfizer’s (U.S.) launch of Toviaz (fesoterodine) in the United States in early June. Progress in the SHAPE restructuring programme was seen through cutbacks in spending on R&D, and general and administrative expenses, but IHS Global Insight nevertheless calculated a 9.3% y/y drop in operating profit for UCB, to 536 million euro.

Over at Solvay, the Pharmaceuticals unit was alone out of the company’s three divisions to record a gain in sales during the first half, rising 3.4% y/y to 1.3 billion euro. Turnover from Solvay Pharmaceuticals made up more than 31% of Solvay’s group sales over the period. Although Solvay has not released any figures on operational costs for the Pharmaceuticals division, the group as a whole, which also includes the Plastics, Chemicals, and Corporate and Business Support divisions, saw a 16.7% y/y decline in production and labour costs and a 1.4% y/y downturn in spending on R&D. However, losses from the Plastics division were damaging to the group’s bottom line and operating income slumped by nearly 30% y/y to 353 million euro as a result. Solvay has calculated that its Pharmaceuticals division’s recurring earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (REBITDA) fell by 12% y/y to 261 million euro.

UCB and Solvay: H1 2009 Financial Results (mil. euro)

 

UCB

Solvay

 

H1 2009

% Change, Y/Y

H1 2009

% Change, Y/Y

Net Sales

1,379

-10.2

4,051

-14.4

   -Pharmaceuticals

-

-

1,292

3.4

Marketing and Sales/Cost of Goods Sold

421

-7.5

2,654

-16.7

R&D Expenses

323

-12.7

290

-1.4

General/Commercial and Administrative Costs

99

-16.8

754

0.7

Operating Income*

536

-9.3

353

-29.8

Operating Margin**

38.9%

0.4 pp higher

8.7%

1.9 pp lower

R&D as % of Net Sales

23.4%

0.7 pp lower

7.2%

1.0 pp higher

Net Income***

516

377.8

168

-49.9

* IHS Global Insight estimate: Net sales minus cost of goods sold, R&D expenses, and general/commercial and administrative costs.
** IHS Global Insight estimate: Operating income as a percentage of net sales.
*** Calculated after minority interests.
Source: UCB, Solvay

For UCB, the first half of 2009 saw some important market launches for its newest drugs, which should breathe new life into its ageing product portfolio. Key among these were the U.S. roll-outs of rheumatoid arthritis treatment Cimzia (certolizumab pegol) and epilepsy drug Vimpat (lacosamide), as well as the European return of Parkinson’s disease drug Neupro (rotigotine transdermal patch) and the European Union (EU) market debut of Vimpat. Cimzia was also recommended for EU approval in rheumatoid arthritis in late June; full European approval is expected by the end of the year (see Belgium: 30 June 2009: UCB Gains Backing for Cimzia in RA and Relaunches Neupro in EU, Sues Synthon over Xyzal ANDA).

Turning to UCB’s more established drugs, the sales picture during January-June was mostly negative. Double-digit losses were felt in the turnover of epilepsy drug Keppra (levetiracetam) following its genericisation in the United States, causing a 22% y/y drop to 465 million euro. UCB blamed a less severe pollen season in most European countries for the 21% y/y contraction in allergy drug Xyzal’s first-half sales, but this did not include an extra US$92 million in U.S. turnover (compared with 19 million euro in the first half of 2008) generated by Xyzal marketing partner Sanofi-Aventis (France). Interestingly, UCB’s older allergy drug Zyrtec (cetirizine) saw its sales jump 28% y/y despite having fallen off patent in most major markets and being loss making since 2007. UCB says this is the result of launching a paediatric version and new formulations of Zyrtec in Japan, as well as a severe local pollen season.

Heavy losses were also felt in sales of cough treatment Tussionex (chlorpheniramine and hydrocodone) and Neupro, which spent most of the first half remaining conspicuously absent from pharmacy shelves in both the EU and the United States after being withdrawn over storage concerns last year. Although Neupro was relaunched in Europe in late June, it has yet to be reintroduced to the U.S. market.

UCB: H1 2009 Sales of Leading Products (mil. euro)

Brand

H1 2009

% Change, Y/Y

Keppra

465

-22

Zyrtec

169

28

Xyzal

82

-21

Tussionex

67

-8

Metadate CD/Equasym XL

42

15

Neupro

27

-25

Cimzia

24

NM

Vimpat

23

NM

Proportion of Total Sales

65.2%

-

Source: UCB

Solvay Pharmaceuticals’ portfolio was equally dominated by loss-making drugs, with only a few treatments continuing to grow their market share. The best-performing segment remained Men’s and Women’s Health, which saw a 27% y/y rise to 371 million euro in sales. Testosterone deficiency treatment Androgel (testosterone gel) grew the fastest, up by 44% y/y at 214 million euro. However, Androgel has seen several obstacles thrown in its path recently: a black-box warning was imposed on testosterone gels sold in the United States in May, while Israeli generics producer Perrigo submitted an Abbreviated New Drug Application with a Paragraph IV certification to the FDA in June, seeking approval for its copy version of the drug while claiming that Androgel’s U.S. patent is no longer valid (see Belgium: 15 June 2009: Solvay Faces First Post-FTC Challenge to Androgel Patent as Perrigo Files ANDA and Belgium: 11 May 2009: Solvay Hit by FDA Black-Box Warning on Testosterone Gels).

Elsewhere, Parkinson’s disease drug Duodopa (levodopa/carbidopa) saw a 40% y/y leap to 27 million euro, while Solvay’s flagship Fenofibrate franchise of cardiovascular drugs suffered a 2% y/y downturn in sales. Solvay says that this is not fully representative of first-half Fenofibrate sales, as it excludes 39 million euro in sales of Trilipix (fenofibrate) made to U.S. distributors in December 2008, immediately after its approval by the FDA. U.S. drug giant Abbott, which co-markets TriCor (fenofibrate) and Trilipix with Solvay, saw its U.S. first-half sales of the two drugs gain 6% y/y to stand at US$588 million.

Pancreatic enzyme Creon (pancrelipase) saw an impressive 19% y/y rise to 123 million euro in its first-half sales and can be expected to witness more growth in the second half and beyond, following its approval in the United States in mid-April.

Solvay Pharmaceuticals: H1 2009 Sales of Leading Products (mil. euro)

Therapeutic Area/Brand

H1 2009

% Change, Y/Y (Reported)

% Change, Y/Y (Comparable)

Cardiometabolic

367

-2

-3

   -Fenofibrate

214

-3

-8

   -Teveten

56

-11

-9

   -Physiotens

22

-7

-3

Neuroscience

181

-18

-18

   -Serc

70

-14

-9

   -Luvox

46

13

2

   -Duodopa

27

40

43

Influenza Vaccines

22

5

14

   -Influvac

9

-15

-10

Pancreatic Enzymes (Creon)

123

19

17

Gastroenterology

116

-5

-2

   -Duphalac

54

5

8

   -Duspatal

32

-2

4

   -Dicetel

14

-19

-16

Men's and Women's Health

371

27

17

   -Androgel

214

44

26

   -Duphaston

53

17

24

   -Prometrium

51

38

20

Source: Solvay

Outlook and Implications

UCB has confirmed its full-year outlook for revenue of 3.1-3.3 billion euro, compared with 3.6 billion euro in 2008. Full-year REBITDA is predicted to be higher than 680 million, while net profit should reach 550 million euro. Neupro’s return to the EU market and its likely relaunch in the United States in the short-to-medium term will combine with sales of Cimzia and Vimpat to counter losses from older products, although it will take time for these new drugs to develop a strong enough market presence to reverse UCB’s sales losses altogether. An EU recommendation in July for a paediatric formulation of Keppra, meanwhile, should help to grow new sales for the drug and extend its market exclusivity in Europe.

Solvay has still not released any financial guidance for 2009, although it is known that the group intends to create savings of 35 million euro by the end of the year through its INSPIRE programme, and has set itself a full-year R&D budget of 435 million euro, to be shared across all divisions. The second round of bidding for Solvay Pharmaceuticals has now been launched, and names reportedly among the prospective buyers include Abbott and Swiss firm Nycomed (see Belgium: 15 July 2009: Solvay Rumoured to Be Eyeing Abbott, Nycomed as Possible Suitors). What started off as one of several methods for Solvay Pharmaceuticals to become more profitable now looks to be more of a certainty if the Belgian firm can convince bidders it is worth a high price. The group’s case will not have been helped by the recent revelation that late-stage clinical trials on schizophrenia drug bifeprunox have yielded poor results, although the experimental treatment was not viewed as a priority compound for Solvay (see Belgium: 30 July 2009: Negative Trial Results Signal Final Nail in the Coffin for Bifeprunox in Schizophrenia).
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