IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | U.S. and Pakistani sources have said that key Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud may be dead, although these reports were based on communication intercepts and no hard evidence was available. |
Implications | Mehsud is a key Taliban leader who was implicated in a number of high-profile attacks in Pakistan, including the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in December 2007. Under U.S. pressure, the Pakistani military has launched a major military offensive against the Taliban, with Mehsud being the army's main focus in South Waziristan. If his death is confirmed, it is hoped that this would boost successes against the Taliban and al-Qaida. |
Outlook | In reality, whether Mehsud has been killed is unlikely to make much of a difference, and extremism is likely to be entrenched in Pakistan for some time to come. |
U.S. and Pakistani officials have said that they are investigating claims that a key Taliban leader in Pakistan's South Waziristan tribal region, Baitullah Mehsud, may have been killed in the U.S. drone attack on Pakistani territory earlier this week. According to Pakistani sources, claims that Mehsud may be dead are based on communication intercepts, but evidence to prove his death is yet to be found. On Wednesday (5 August), the U.S. drone attack targeted Mehsud's father-in-law's home. Tribal sources say that one of Mehsud's wives was killed.
Mehsud heads the militant Taliban's umbrella organisation Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP), which was officially formed in December 2007 and has gained effective authority over most of Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), particularly North and South Waziristan, and some areas in the North-West Frontier Province. Prior to 2007, the TTP had been active from 2002 as a loosely co-ordinated entity since the central government's incursions into the FATA to drive out foreign militants. It is believed that Mehsud was able to consolidate his power in the area significantly after the government struck a peace deal with him in 2005, which he used to expand his following and geographical reach. Mehsud is also said to have been involved in the September 2007 Rawalpindi bombings, the assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto in December 2007, and the Lahore Police Academy Attack in March 2009.
The United States has over the past years largely ignored the threat posed by Mehsud, thinking that his activities were confined only to Pakistan. However, since January 2009 the TTP has co-operated with the Afghan Taliban, led by Mullah Omar, under the umbrella of the Shura Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen with the aim of driving NATO forces out of Afghanistan, something that has led the United States increasingly to realise that winning the war in Afghanistan would be impossible without clamping down on Taliban safe havens across the border in Pakistan. Reports of Mehsud commanding a 20,000-plus force of militants have further increased suspicions on the parts of the Pakistani and U.S. governments that Mehsud could destabilise the entire region. Having announced its new "Af-Pak strategy" in late March 2009, the United States has put immense pressure on the Pakistani government to address the issue. In early May 2009 the Pakistani government decided to undertake a massive military operation against the TTP. Although it was announced early on that the operation would aim at "eliminating" militants from Pakistan, it soon became clear that one of the main targets was Mehsud himself. Nevertheless, although certain strategic military successes against militants could be made, to date neither Mehsud nor any other major operating Taliban commander was captured or killed, putting the government under severe pressure to deliver results.
Pakistani military actions have been complemented by unmanned U.S. drone attacks from Afghanistan. U.S. drone attacks have been carried out for a number of years in an effort to curtail efforts of the Taliban to regroup and rearm in Pakistan to wage its increasingly successful insurgency in Afghanistan. It is believed that the Pakistani leadership in private welcomes the U.S. drone attacks. However, Pakistan frequently denounces the drone attacks as being counterproductive, as these allegedly stir public resentment against the United States and undermine the legitimacy of the government as such activities infringe the country's sovereignty. Overall, it is notable that drone attacks have not made a difference with respect to capturing or killing major Taliban leaders, although hundreds of militants were killed by these over the past years. In March 2009, the U.S. government issued a US$5-million reward for information on the whereabouts of Mehsud.
Outlook and Implications
Despite Claims of Normalisation, Insecurity Prevails
The U.S. and Pakistani governments have been at pains in past months to present results in their respective fight against extremism. Mehsud's death is widely assumed to be a major milestone for both to justify their operations and to claim to have dealt a major blow to extremism. However, it is not at all clear to what extent the death of Mehsud, if confirmed, would actually serve to reduce the incidence of extremism in Pakistan (and, arguably, Afghanistan). On the one hand, it can be expected that there are many who could potentially take over Mehsud's position, carrying on the insurgency as before. Furthermore, with the Pakistani military hesitant to move into South Waziristan with ground forces and instead pounding suspected Taliban strongholds with aerial attacks, this is not likely to eradicate the Taliban, which have the advantage of local expertise in highly inaccessible terrain. The area, which is extremely mountainous, is also largely impassable for outsiders, meaning that conventional warfare tactics, as largely practiced by the Pakistani military, are impractical.
With regard to the Pakistani military's "success story"—the "elimination" of militants in Swat valley—there remain significant challenges ahead, likely distracting Pakistan's ability to focus entirely on rooting out militants in South Waziristan. Although there have been a number of very positive developments in Swat valley, including the return of more than 400,000 internally displaced people (IDPs) and the re-opening of schools, militant attacks in the valley have continued and an estimated 1.6 million IDPs remain displaced. Furthermore, there are fears that the military offensive in Swat could have caused the Taliban to have been dispersed, rather than defeated. With sporadic fighting still ongoing, the possibility exists that the Taliban could regroup in the mountains and stage insurgency-style attacks in the valley. Although police and military are deployed, these are stretched too thin to fend off the threat posed by the highly mobile Taliban.