IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Poland's retail pharmaceutical market continued its impressive growth from 2008 and increased in value by 8.6% y/y in the first half. Meanwhile, the country's pharmaceutical exports in 2008 exceeded US$1 billion for the first time. |
Implications | Increases in reimbursement and the continued dynamic growth in over-the-counter (OTC) spending continued to give the Polish retail pharma market impetus. Poland's pharmaceutical exports were favoured by a strong demand for generics in the context of the economic downturn. |
Outlook | Poland's retail pharma market now looks likely to continue to grow at a similar rate—around 8%—for the whole of 2009, confirming the country's importance in terms of the European pharmaceutical market as a whole. Meanwhile, ongoing cost-containment drives are likely to mean that Poland's pharmaceutical exports will continue to grow dynamically in 2009. |
Poland's pharmaceutical market increased in value by 8.6% y/y in terms of retail pharmacy sales in the first half, reaching a total value of 12.925 billion zloty (US$4.49 billion), according to information from Polish pharmaceutical market research organisation PharmaExpert. The turnover of the average pharmacy in this period was 948,500 zloty, which represented an increase of 5.4% y/y. In particular, the value of retail sales of OTC medicines grew dynamically in this period, with a rise of 11.9% y/y to 4.532 billion zloty. Also noteworthy is the increase in the value of sales of 100% reimbursed medicines, which went up by 9.0% y/y to 2.491 billion. The total value of pharmaceutical reimbursement in the period also went up, by 13.1%, reaching 4.075 billion zloty.
Polish Retail Pharmaceutical Market, January–June 2009 ('000 zloty) | |||
Average Pharmacy | Total Market | % Change (Total Market) | |
Total turnover | 948.5 | 12,925,195 | 8.6 |
Total value of reimbursed prescriptions | 428.2 | 5,834,530 | 5.9 |
Value of 100% reimbursed prescriptions | 182.9 | 2,491,849 | 9.0 |
Total value of reimbursement | 299.1 | 4,075,829 | 13.1 |
Total value of OTC sales | 332.6 | 4,532,561 | 11.9 |
Source: PharmaExpert | |||
Gap between Exports and Imports Becomes Narrower
Meanwhile, the Polish pharmaceutical industry can be encouraged by information that, for the first time ever, Polish drug exports exceeded US$1 billion in 2008, with their total value reaching 3.48 billion zloty according to Pharma Poland News. Imports of pharmaceuticals into Poland in 2008 went up by 37% to 12.76 billion zloty. Therefore, the value of Polish pharmaceutical exports in 2008 was 28% of the value of imports, whereas in 2007, it was only 23%.
Poland, Pharmaceutical Exports/Imports, 2008 | ||
Value (mil. zloty) | % Change | |
Pharmaceutical exports | 3,480 | 64 |
Pharmaceutical imports | 12,760 | 37 |
Germany Confirmed as Main Importer of Polish Pharmaceuticals
Germany cemented its position as the main importer of pharmaceuticals from Poland, increasing its imports by 35% y/y to 529 million zloty. Meanwhile, the value of imports of Polish pharmaceuticals into Russia increased by 21% y/y in 2008, after a fall of 12% y/y in 2007. Among the most dynamically growing of Poland's export markets for pharmaceuticals in this period was France, which increased its imports by 156% to 307 million zloty.
Main Polish Pharmaceutical Export Destination Countries, 2008 | ||
Value of exports, mil. zloty | % change from 2007 | |
Germany | 529 | 35 |
Russia | 457 | 21 |
France | 307 | 156 |
United Kingdom | 287 | 35 |
Lithuania | 152 | -1 |
Czech Republic | 144 | 29 |
Source: Pharma Poland News | ||
Outlook and implications
The growth of the retail pharmaceutical market in Poland in the first half, at 8.6% y/y, was in line with growth of 9% y/y in 2008 (see Poland: 5 May 2009: Pharmaceutical Sales in Poland Grow 9.2% Y/Y in 2008; Slowdown Expected in 2009). The growth in sales of 100% reimbursed drugs can be explained by the increase in the number of drugs that qualified for 100% reimbursement when the reimbursement list was updated in March. The total value of reimbursement in the first half—4.075 billion zloty according to the PharmaExpert figures—indicates that the budget was slightly overshot, as the total planned for reimbursement under the official national budget was 8 billion zloty (see Poland: 20 July 2009: Minimal Increase Planned for Polish Drug Reimbursement, as 2010 Budget Set at US$2.65 bil.). It remains to be seen whether this will have any consequences for the market in the second half. Against earlier predictions made as a result of the economic downturn, the OTC market continued to grow dynamically in the first half.
In terms of Poland's pharmaceutical exports, Germany's position as the largest importer testifies to the country's position as Poland's most important trading partner, and as there is a strong focus on cost reduction in pharmaceutical reimbursement in Germany, Polish producers are in a good position from which to sell their products to their Western neighbours. The predominance of generics producers in Poland means that Polish pharmaceutical producers are benefiting from the general cost-reduction trends around Europe, as they are able to be competitive on price. Meanwhile, the increase in exports to Russia following the 12% y/y drop in 2007 results from improved trade relations between the countries, due to the change in Poland's government at the end of 2007.