IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The secretive return of ousted president Manuel Zelaya came as a surprise for the interim government, effectively challenging its legitimacy and the presidential elections scheduled for 29 November. |
Implications | The tables seem to be turning in favour of Zelaya, who even a day earlier seemed out of the picture. The interim government cannot ignore the ousted leader and is being forced to reconsider its options. |
Outlook | Intense diplomatic activity to prevent violence and riots is expected, with Brazil, the United States, and the Organization of American States (OAS) expected to play key roles in the mediation process. |
Zelaya Reappears
It was a case of third time lucky for Honduras's ousted leader yesterday, when he finally managed to sneak back into the country undetected and sought refuge in the Brazilian embassy. Ever since Zelaya was ousted on 28 June at gunpoint, he has been in exile, touring Latin American countries and the United States to gather support for his cause. The United States recently ordered the suspension of all financial help to Honduras, except for humanitarian aid, as well as most visas, including that of Roberto Micheletti, head of the interim government (see Honduras: 4 September 2009: U.S. Cuts Financial Help to Honduras). However, the United States has been cautious in its handling of the political crisis, declining to label the ouster a military coup. Such a declaration would imply legal procedures against the de facto government, and it seems the United States is reluctant to be seen to intervene in Latin American affairs so overtly. Zelaya's left-wing credentials and close relations with U.S. bête noire Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez have not helped his cause with the United States either.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged Zelaya and the interim government to commence dialogue and avoid the use of violence after Zelaya's return was confirmed yesterday. Clinton also met with Costa Rican President Oscar Arias, who earlier drafted a diplomatic roadmap for Honduras, dubbed the San José Accord. Arias claimed yesterday in a joint press conference with Clinton that "there is no plan B", stressing that the interim government must accept Zelaya's return to power, a basic condition of the San José Accord. Meanwhile, Brazil is set to play a leading role in the resolution of the conflict, given that Zelaya is currently protected under international law at the Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa. Brazil's Foreign Minister Celso Amorim said that any threat against the embassy would be seen as a "gross violation" of international law. The interim government responded that it would blame Brazil for any acts of violence and for giving protection to Zelaya.
Honduras's de facto government has extended a curfew for most of today after thousands of Zelaya supporters gathered around the Brazilian embassy to celebrate his return. The interim government now faces a challenge to maintain its legitimacy given that the democratically elected Zelaya is now in the capital and has the support (albeit rather muted) of the international community. The stubbornness of Micheletti and his cabinet will be tested. Tension is likely to persist in coming days, when a resolution to the political crisis will need to be found. In a communiqué the Organization of American States (OAS) urged the two parties to sign the San José Accord, which has rapidly regained favour as events have progressed. Micheletti, who has been fiercely opposed to Zelaya's return, will have to reconsider his options. He cannot ignore pressure from the international community, and he cannot gain extra time given the proximity of the scheduled November elections. Meanwhile, Zelaya has increased his bargaining power thanks to the upsurge of popular support on the streets.
A Divided Society
Honduran society is now more divided than ever. Despite Micheletti's attempts to focus the population's attention on the next presidential elections on 29 November, Zelaya's comeback is now in the limelight. Zelaya's supporters, the majority of whom come from a poor or low-middle-class background, are demanding his restoration to power and point out that he is the democratically elected president. The opposition, mainly the business and landowning class, justify the events of 28 June as a necessary measure to prevent Zelaya from extending his rule beyond current limits. The coup came shortly before polling stations were due to open for a highly contentious popular consultation aimed at gauging public support for a possible constitutional change. In the non-binding consultation, the electorate would have been asked to vote on whether there should be a formal and binding referendum on calling a constitutional assembly alongside the November general elections. Congress, the Supreme Court, and the Army supported the military coup, ousting Zelaya and putting in place Micheletti's interim government. The military coup marked a breach in democratic governance in the Central American country, dividing already-alienated Hondurans and representing the worst political crisis that has taken place in the region for decades. The interim government has clamped down on pro-Zelaya activism in the meantime, a social force that Zelaya's comeback has reinvigorated. The pro-Zelaya teachers' trade union has announced a general strike starting today, involving some 50,000 teachers across the country. Meanwhile, fears of violence between the opposition-backed army and Zelaya supporters are mounting.
Outlook and Implications
The Honduran political crisis has taken a new turn with Zelaya's return to Tegucigalpa. His physical reappearance in the country puts added pressure on the interim government, which cannot ignore his demands now. Zelaya is counting on Brazilian diplomatic support to secure his safety, and any hostile actions on behalf of the interim government on his person will be condemned by the international community. The United States will have to escalate diplomatic pressure and force the interim government to sign the San José Accord, which now seems as the only peaceful way out of the crisis. In the meantime, Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America and seen as a heavyweight on political and diplomatic relations, has already raised its profile amongst the Latin American left by giving protection to Zelaya. An imminent visit to the country of OAS Secretary-General José Miguel Insulza is expected, while Micheletti weighs up his options.