IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | It was not immediately clear if a coup had actually taken place, but the playing of military music on national radio seemed to suggest that it was, at the very least, an attempted power-grab by the army. |
Implications | President Malam Bacai Sanha claims to have the situation under control. He has tried to downplay the whole incident as a disagreement within the army. |
Outlook | Security-sector reform is crucial; the overbearing presence of the army has had a deleterious effect on politics in Guinea-Bissau since independence and a coordinated effort with the international community is necessary to ensure institutional stability. |
Failed Coup?
Just as Guinea-Bissau appeared to be hauling itself out from the darkness, yesterday, mutinous soldiers removed and detained the military chief of staff, General Jose Zamora Induta, replacing him with his deputy, General Antonio Njai. The soldiers, who also briefly detained the country’s prime minister Carlos Gomes Junior (aka Cadogo) and a number of cabinet ministers before releasing them later in the day, are believed to still be holding scores of senior military figures in addition to the ousted armed forces chief.
It is not clear at this stage what prompted the arrests, but at the very least it is yet another indication that the military continues to hold powerful sway in the country. Just last year, the country was rocked by the assassination of the president, Joao Bernardo Nino Vieira, in what was later revealed to be a reprisal attack for the death of the then army chief of staff General Tagme Na Waie. These deaths simply add to the catalogue of political violence; since the country returned to multi-party politics in 1994, no president has been able to complete his five-year term. Furthermore, the killing of Na Waie was the third army-chief assassination in nine years. Factionalism within the military, fuelled by the influx of drugs, coupled with institutional instability, is also a contributing factor and one that seriously undermines security sector reform efforts.
The move came just days after the African Union had commended Guinea-Bissau’s process of democratization, following its relatively peaceful presidential election in July last year. Even the president’s absence from the country in December, owing to ill health, did not prompt an attempted takeover, even though there were fears that the notoriously overbearing army could step in. The insurrection also comes just a week after the security forces were put on high alert in the north of the country along the border with Senegal, where the Senegalese government has been stepping up efforts to combat its own internal rebellion in the Casamance region.
Keeping Up Appearances
Meanwhile, President Malam Bacai Sanha, elected less than 10 months ago, attempted to calm fears of the situation spiralling out of control by giving a broadcast announcing that the situation is now under control. He had earlier been in talks with army officers who had assured him that they had no intention of replacing him. He said; “There was a problem between soldiers which spilled over into the civilian government. I will use my influence to find a friendly solution to this problem between soldiers".
But the people are not convinced. Reportedly, hundreds of people gathered outside the army barracks and government buildings calling for Cadogo to be released. Such demonstrations pose a further risk to stability. Injai, who was named as the new military chief in succession to Induta, had earlier threatened to kill Cadogo if the protests did not stop after branding him a criminal. But as the attempted power-grab appears to be heading towards failure, Induta has sought to play down the events, saying that the military still answered to the political authorities.
Outlook and Implications
This army uprising is a sign of unsettling times ahead for Guinea-Bissau. Since Independence in the 1970s, the former Portuguese colony has swung from coup to coup as the military has always taken an overbearing role in politics. Encouraging signs of a country emerging from such instability seem to have unravelled. The international community has been quick and united in its condemnation of yesterday’s events and although the coup plot seems to have failed, at least for the time being, yesterday’s events underline the fragile nature of the country’s political environment and the army’s perennial presence as a source of instability. As such, if the country is ever going to establish a relatively stable political environment, urgent steps must be taken to demilitarise political power, with the help of the international community. Until such time, the military will continue to effectively hold state institutions to ransom, generating instability not only for Guinea-Bissau itself but for its volatile regional neighbours.