IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Belgian King Albert II yesterday admitted defeat and accepted the government's resignation following the failure of negotiations to solve the escalating political crisis. |
Implications | The political instability stems from Belgium's complex set-up, which pits regions and government parties against one another. At the heart of the dispute is the privileged position of French-speaking Belgians in the suburbs of the capital, Brussels. |
Outlook | King Albert has requested that Prime Minster Yves Leterme lead a caretaker government until it is decided whether the federal government will be dissolved, triggering an election within 40 days, or whether there is scope for compromise between the parties in parliament with the appointment of a new negotiator. |
Belgian King Albert II yesterday accepted Prime Minister Yves Leterme's resignation, offered on 22 April, conceding that five days of negotiations to break the political deadlock had failed to make any progress. The King's decision was prompted by a report from his chosen rapporteur and chief mediator, Wallonian deputy prime minister and finance minister Didier Reynders, which indicated that it had become apparent to Leterme that a "loss of confidence" between the different parties had made it impossible to pursue negotiations. Leterme tendered his resignation because of gridlocked talks over administrative reform in the divided country. The latest political crisis was prompted by the decision of a junior ruling coalition partner—the Flemish Liberal Democrats (Open VLD)—to withdraw from government (see Belgium: 23 April 2010: Belgian Government Teeters on Brink of Collapse). This was in the wake of a dispute related to communities that have been trying to maintain their Flemish identity by removing the special voting rights of French speakers. Although this dispute is centred on the Belgian capital, Brussels, it is simply a local manifestation of long-standing problems that have plagued the federal Belgian state and its divided population. Since 1994, the country has been a federal state divided into three regions: affluent, Dutch-speaking Flanders; the poorer, mostly industrial and French-speaking Wallonia; and the mixed Brussels-Capital Region. There are three recognised ethnicities: Flemish (59%), Wallonian (40%), and German (1%). This highly complex system effectively reduces the need for inter-regional co-operation to a bare minimum.
Caretaker Government and Snap Election
It is still unclear whether Leterme has accepted the King's request to continue in a caretaker capacity, but it is likely that he will do so in order to avoid plunging Belgium into an even worse political crisis. Leterme's first test is likely to come on 29 April when the Open VLD is set to table a vote on the division of the electoral district Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde (BHV). Given that Flemish lawmakers hold a majority in the federal parliament, if the vote is held it is likely that the motion will be adopted, thereby reducing the voting rights of French speakers in the Flemish suburbs around Brussels. Brussels is mostly French-speaking, while the 35 suburbs of Halle-Vilvoorde are predominantly Dutch-speaking. A previous agreement gave the approximately 100,000 native French speakers in Halle-Vilvoorde one-sided privileges, for example allowing them to vote for French-speaking candidates running for posts in Brussels. By contrast, native Flemish speakers in Halle-Vilvoorde could not vote for Flemish speakers eyeing positions in Brussels. The Constitutional Court annulled this agreement in 2003 and the key stakeholders have been arguing over the way forward ever since. The tabling of this motion would cement divisions between the parties, reinforcing the underlying linguistic allegiances and making a snap general election inevitable.
Under Belgian law, the dissolution of the federal parliament would trigger an election within 40 days. An election would only reinforce linguistic divides, while it might also coincide with the start of Belgium's six-month presidency of the European Union (EU), due to begin on 1 July. Even if elections were organised in June, it is likely that they would be followed by months of negotiations to form a new coalition government between the same parties and politicians currently dominating the political scene. There are still hopes that a general election can be avoided by the appointment of a new mediator who would work over the next two days to prevent the Open VLD from tabling the motion, after which work would begin anew to form a new coalition government according to the current parliamentary distribution.
Outlook and Implications
Leterme's inability to see through a full term in office is now becoming legendary, with the prime minister having resigned twice before, in 2007 and 2008. Government collapses have become notoriously common in Belgium, and the country was without a government at all for six months between 2007 and 2008 because of similar disputes between the Flemish and Wallonians. The bigger problem, however, is that the federal system is largely failing to yield results and is increasingly being damaged by more intense and longer periods of deadlock and instability. Any attempts at reaching a compromise between the main parties would be likely to result in the ouster of Leterme as prime minister. The Wallonian ruling parties distrust him and argue that his derogatory comments about Wallonians in 2007 have caused huge damage to Belgian cohesion, while the Flemish parties argue that he has not made good on his electoral pledges to increase decentralisation. The timing of the latest government collapse is highly unfortunate, not only because Belgium is due to take over the EU presidency on 1 July, but also because the country is currently embarking on a fragile economic recovery following the 2009 downturn. There is no easy or quick solution to the political crisis plaguing Belgium at present, with a fresh election unlikely to resolve the problem. Nonetheless, the strength of the decentralised political system ensures the continued day-to-day running of Belgium. The federal and regional governments are highly business friendly and the federal cabinet remains committed to boosting economic growth and curbing social security costs.