IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | President Umaru Yar'Adua died at home at 21:00 yesterday, according to his spokesman, and is expected to be buried this afternoon. Acting president Goodluck Jonathan has been sworn in as substantive president. |
Implications | As far as policy is concerned, Jonathan can be expected to continue as he had been in his capacity as acting president, prioritising electoral reform, the Niger Delta crisis, and power-sector reform; regarding succession, however, questions are raised as to who Jonathan will choose as his vice-president, as this could have longer term ramifications for Nigeria. |
Outlook | Jonathan's vice-presidential pick could set the tone for Nigeria's presidential election; at the same time, Jonathan is not constitutionally bound to nominate a northerner as his vice-president, nor is he obliged to hold off from participating. A departure from the chartered People's Democratic Party path could throw the party into disarray and create a wave of instability for Nigerian politics. |
Death of a Statesman
Presidential spokesman Olusegun Adeniyi has confirmed that Umaru Musa Yar'Adua died at around 21:00 at the presidential villa of Aso Rock in Abuja yesterday. The 58-year-old had been suffering from acute pericarditis for about six months but details relating to his health were sketchy; even after his return from Saudi Arabia, his entourage had said that the president was on the mend. Although he clung to power as substantive president, he never recovered from the ordeal, which had taken him away from public life since November 2009. Yar'Adua was a known sufferer of kidney failure, too, even prior to his election in 2007. Even though his demise may have been expected given the state of his health and the sheer lack of communication from the presidency of his condition, his irrevocable absence may open a sore wound for Nigerian politics, during the country's 50th anniversary year of independence.
Days of Mourning
Yar'Adua's death cannot be said to have come as a surprise, but the country is undoubtedly in a state of mourning. In keeping with the Muslim tradition of burying the deceased within 24 hours, Yar'Adua is expected to be buried by 14:00 today at his hometown of Katsina, in northern Katsina State. This morning, acting president Goodluck Jonathan was sworn in as substantive president. The oath of office was conducted by Chief Justice Aloysius Katsina-Alu in the cabinet meeting room at the presidency in Abuja. At the swearing-in ceremony, Jonathan declared: "Nigeria has lost the jewel on its crown, and even the heavens mourn with our nation tonight," This Day reports. Seven days of national mourning have been announced, with Nigeria's flag to be flown at half-staff.
What Happens Next?
Since the president's 2009 hospitalisation in a Saudi clinic, the state apparatus has been shifting in the quicksand of Nigerian politics, to avoid a power vacuum that was emerging from Yar'Adua's protracted absence. Jonathan had manoeuvred his way to acting president in the face of mounting political pressure to act. His transition from vice-president was fashioned by the Senate, making it a political decision as opposed to a strictly legal one: the constitution stipulates that in the event of a president's incapacity to govern, the president should transmit a letter to the National Assembly transferring his powers over to his deputy. That letter never arrived, which, given Yar'Adua's reported poor health, is not surprising. But the constitution says if a letter cannot be sent, then the legislature should impeach the president, which also never happened. Instead, an agreement was cobbled together and Jonathan was made acting president. Jonathan, who has moved up the ranks from university lecturer, to deputy governor (of Bayelsa State), to governor (of Bayelsa state), to deputy president, to acting president, and now to substantive president and who has been consolidating his power since being made acting president, will want to demonstrate that it is more than just luck that is keeping him in power.
Jonathan's swearing in as substantive president could further entrench his authority, for it eliminates any ambiguities of leadership in Nigeria. Although he had been made acting president, there was arguably the nagging doubt that power could be taken from him should Yar'Adua be restored to full health. Prior to Jonathan's dissolution of the cabinet, there was also the fear that the tight coterie of advisors surrounding Yar'Adua with vested interests to protect the status quo with Yar'Adua at the helm could subvert his authority. However, in essence, Jonathan eliminated these risk factors to his authority as much as possible, in the dismissal of the justice minister and staunch pro-Yar'Adua figure, the dissolution of the cabinet, the creation of a government of technocrats, and soldiering forward with policy reforms—the signing of the budget and Nigeria's local content law and putting an emphasis on the heavily debated Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB).
Gentlemen Do Not Always Agree
That is not to say that henceforth Nigeria's polity will be smooth-sailing. First off, Yar'Adua's death has reinforced the notion that Jonathan is sitting on a time bomb. Elections have been slated for April/May 2011, but there is the sense that the polls may be brought forward. Jonathan, an Ijaw from the southern state of Bayelsa, has not been explicit about his presidential ambitions. However, the tacit agreement within the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) that sees power rotate between north and south could become explicit, as northern politicians within the PDP insist on the next president of the country hailing from the north. The terms of this gentleman's agreement have not been honoured. Yar'Adua, a northerner, should have served two, four-year terms before power then returned to the south. Thus, in accordance with the power-sharing arrangement, Jonathan's ambitions should be ruled out.
The gentleman's agreement also means that Jonathan must be mindful of his vice-presidential selection. The assumption is that Jonathan will nominate a northern vice-president and the pair will govern until elections are called. But the choice could have ramifications for the future of Nigerian politics, because that figure is likely to run as the PDP's candidate in the next election. Judging by the trend of PDP domination in Nigerian politics since the country's adoption of civilian rule in 1999, it is the PDP candidate who will, almost without question, win the election. There has been some media speculation as to who could be Jonathan's choice, with the names of Aliyu Gusau (the national security chief), Nuhu Ribadu (the former anti-corruption czar), and Bukola Saraki (the governor of Kwara state) circulating.
But there is nothing to say that Jonathan will respect the unwritten terms of this rotating arrangement. Without a constitutional mandate, Jonathan is not obliged to follow this rule and with him now constitutionally at the helm, he may very well surprise PDP powerbrokers by throwing his hat into the ring. This could have the effect of splitting the PDP machine, and at a time when the party has been riven by internal schisms (see Nigeria: 28 April 2010: Ruling Party Beset with Internal Schisms; Nigerian Acting President Calls for Order), such a prospect is not entirely inconceivable.
As far as policy goes, it is likely to be business as usual for Jonathan. When he became acting president, he was clear in his aim of following through with the policy reforms started under Yar'Adua, namely in tackling the Niger Delta unrest, the gross power-sector lapses, and pushing ahead with electoral reforms. In his capacity as acting president, Jonathan had begun to make inroads: he has been engaged with industry watchers over the passage of the PIB, which would overhaul Nigeria's hydrocarbons sector while also according a 10% stake in joint ventures to Niger Delta communities; he has also dismissed the reviled electoral commission chair Maurice Iwu (see Nigeria: 30 April 2010: Acting President Dismisses Electoral Body Head in Nigeria).
Outlook and Implications
Yar'Adua's death has sent Africa's leading oil producer into a state of mourning. But his passing was widely anticipated, despite the intermittent communiqués from his close coterie to suggest that he was improving. Lately, the lack of communication gave rise to suspicion that the president was not very well at all, given his extended stay in Saudi Arabia, where he was being treated for acute pericarditis. As far as policy goes, the president's passing will change little, for Jonathan has gradually been consolidating his power base and positioned seasoned technocrats into public office to enable him to push through with the reform agenda started under Yar'Adua. But where the irrevocable absence of Yar'Adua will mostly be felt is with regards to succession, given that Jonathan will now have to choose a vice-president, who could potentially become the PDP's candidate for the elections. But therein lies the intrigue in Nigerian politics: constitutionally, Jonathan will not be bound to appoint a vice-president from the north, nor is he obliged to stay out of the presidential race. Nevertheless, a departure from this unwritten norm would throw the charted PDP path into disarray, boding ill for political stability going forwards.