IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Yesterday, acting president and pro-business Civic Platform party candidate Bronislaw Komorowski narrowly won the second round of the presidential race, with conservative Jaroslaw Kaczynski close behind. |
Implications | Poland's relations with Russia and the European Union are set to improve, while co-operation between the presidential palace and the government will also increase considerably. |
Outlook | Even with a supportive president, the government is likely to opt for a cautious approach when introducing reforms amid the upcoming municipal and parliamentary polls, where its popularity will be tested. |
Tight Race
Following a tight race, liberal acting president Bronislaw Komorowski narrowly won the second round of Poland's presidential election, becoming
Bronislaw Komorowski—Profile |
Following Lech Walesa, Alexander Kwasniewski, and Lech Kaczynski, Bronislaw Komorowski has been elected as Poland's head of state. The 58-year-old historian Komorowski graduated from Warsaw University and later became a teacher. During the 1970s and 1980's, he was actively involved in the anti-communist movement and was even arrested while Poland was under martial law. In the 1990s, Komorowski was deputy defence minister in three governments, before heading the ministry in 2000 and 2001. In 2001, he joined the Civic Platform (PO) party and became a close ally of current prime minister and PO leader Donald Tusk. In 2007, when the PO defeated the Kaczynskis' Law and Justice party, Komorowski became the speaker of the Sejm (lower house of parliament), and he assumed interim presidential duties after President Lech Kaczynski died in the plane crash in April 2010. |
the country's fourth democratic head of state since the fall of communism in 1989. According to preliminary results, Komorowski secured 52.6% of votes, against the 47.4% won by the twin brother of late president Lech Kaczynski, and Komorowski's conservative rival, Jaroslaw Kaczynski. Turnout was just over 55%, and the final official results will be published later today. According to the State Election Commission, Komorowski was mainly supported by urban voters, whereas Kaczynski enjoyed a strong backing among the rural population.
The first round of the polls was held on 20 June, but none of the 10 competing candidates secured over 50% of the votes and thereby became the outright winner (see Poland: 2 July 2010: Election 2010: Tight Contest Expected in Polish Presidential Run-Off). The presidential campaign was somehow subdued, as it was heavily influenced by the April plane crash that claimed the lives of dozens of Poland's military, political, and religious elite, including president Lech Kaczynski (see Poland - Russia: 12 April 2010: Air Crash Claims Large Swathe of Poland's Political and Military Elite). Initially, Komorowski—the speaker of the Sejm (lower house of parliament) who assumed presidential duties after the crash—was the favourite to win the poll, leaving Kaczynski and other candidates far behind in opinion polls. Nonetheless, Kaczynski made a last-minute comeback, and managed to strengthen his position considerably following better-than-expected results during the first round. Therefore, the second round of the election was a very tight race, leaving room for speculation that Kaczynski—similar to his brother in the 2005 presidential poll—could win the election despite finishing second in the first round.
No Excuses
The president in Poland has primarily ceremonial duties, and represents the country abroad. However, the president is also head of the army, and therefore has a significant say in Poland's foreign policy. He or she can also veto laws—a prerogative late president Lech Kaczynski applied on numerous occasions.
First of all, Komorowski's victory is good news for Poland's foreign relations. The Kaczynski brothers held Poland's helm between 2006 and 2007—Lech being Poland's president while Jaroslaw held the prime ministerial post—and relations with Poland's neighbours, especially Russia and the European Union (EU), suffered considerably. Ties have improved under Tusk's helm, and Komorowski has also pledged to boost relations with Russia and Europe should he become president.
Second, Komorowski's victory is also good news for Poland's political stability and the future of domestic reforms. Komorowski is a candidate nominated by the ruling Civic Platform (PO) party of Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Therefore, he is highly unlikely to block reforms and future legislation initiated by the PO-led government. This will also considerably improve the relationship between the presidential palace and the government, which suffered while Lech Kaczynski was in power. Given that Poland's top two posts will now be represented by the same party, political stability in Poland is likely to improve, and IHS Global Insight might upgrade Poland's political rating in the short term.
Urgent Need for Economic Reforms
Nonetheless, although Komorowski's victory could give a free rein to Tusk's government, it also puts considerable pressure on legislators to proceed with various reforms. The Polish economy is currently the most dynamic in the EU, and even grew during the global recession, but the price for that was a sharply widening and excessive fiscal deficit. The deficit ratio ballooned to 7.2% of GDP in 2009, and it will narrow only slightly to around 6.5% of GDP in 2010. The government has targeted the ratio to fall to 3% of GDP by 2012, but exactly how that will be achieved remains unclear. The government is apparently placing a bet on growth, which could however turn sour as soon as Europe's recovery stalls.
It is not only the deficit that causes concern, though, for Poland's public-sector debt ratio has surpassed the first constitutional threshold (50% of GDP), and will get close to 55% of GDP by the end of the year. The final threshold (60% of GDP) that would de facto forbid new borrowing is not too far away. Needless to say, the reputation of Poland's public sector would be dragged into doubt if the threshold were passed.
The Polish government therefore needs to embark on serious austerity measures to make sure that such a scenario fails to happen. Given that rationalising spending would be ideal but is politically too sensitive to push through at a necessary amount, modest tax increases are likely to come into the fray as well. So far, however, the government has refrained from publishing concrete plans in this respect.
Outlook and Implications
Following the plane crash, Poland experienced a very strange pre-election campaign. The usually outspoken Kaczynski opted for a moderate, conciliatory approach, and both main rivals refrained from strong accusations of incompetency, rather calling for Poland to unite. Both voters and candidates can now breathe a sigh of relief that the presidential race is over and Poland has a chance of opening a new chapter in its foreign relations, as well as a chance for political stability and domestic reforms. The government is now under pressure to introduce reforms to cut the fiscal deficit, lower the national debt, and reform the healthcare and pension systems. With a liberal president in power, the government will be closely monitored over how it deals with these tasks, and its performance will be indeed ranked in the upcoming municipal and parliamentary polls due to be held later this year and in autumn 2011, respectively.
Tusk's PO party is currently highly popular, mainly due to the fact that Poland—unlike many other European countries—managed to avoid recession throughout the global economic downturn. However, should the government start introducing unpopular measures, this could harm its popularity, especially among the low-income population, and it could also cost the PO its governmental helm. Despite finishing second, the tight results indicate that Kaczynski's Law and Justice (PiS) party is gaining in popularity, and that it will become a strong candidate in the upcoming municipal and general polls. The party lost many of its members during the April crash, and now it has the chance for a revival in a bid to also become more popular among the younger, urban electorate. Furthermore, although the reforms will now receive the green light from the president, the PO is in coalition with the conservative Polish People's Party (PSL). The PSL generally objects to policies that could harm primarily the rural population, and its 31 parliamentary seats could be crucial in approving—or rejecting—future reforms. With this in mind, Tusk is likely to opt for a cautious approach when introducing new legislation, at least until the 2011 parliamentary election is over. With the PiS taking its second wind, the Tusk government and his own PO party are facing some very challenging months ahead.