IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Known for being stuck in legislative stalemate, Lebanon's parliament yesterday voted through two important pieces of legislation; granting Lebanon-based Palestinian refugees the same labour rights as other foreigners and an energy law for offshore oil and gas exploration and drilling. |
Implications | For Palestinians the move is a symbolic but small step forward, increasing the number of professions they are allowed to take up and giving them social security rights. Meanwhile, the energy bill paves the way Lebanon to compete with Israeli exploration successes in potentially disputed waters. |
Outlook | For debt-ridden Lebanon, successful off-shore oil and gas exploration could in the medium-to-longer-term give a much needed boost to state coffers. However, there are many technical, practical, and regulatory hurdles that need to be overcome before exploration can take off. Meanwhile, for Palestinians, the new law is unlikely to be followed by any additional substantive rights expansions due to domestic political sensitivities. |
Lebanon’s parliament has for the most part of recent decades either been in a state of deadlock or suspension due to the country’s perennial political difficulties. Yesterday however, the 6 June 2009 elected parliament took two decisive steps, passing two contentious bills that have long been hotly debated. The first increases working rights for Palestinian refugees, and the second regulates offshore oil and gas exploration.
From Refugees to Foreigners
For Lebanon’s approximately 400,000 Palestinian refugees (estimate from the UN agency for Palestinian refugees—UNRWA), the law passed yesterday is small but important step forward. The bill gives Palestinians the right to enter the wider labour market on the same terms as other foreigners. This means that a long list of professions prohibited to Palestinian refugees will be shortened. Furthermore, Palestinians will benefit for the first time from social security protection which will be derived from a special fund. The good news to some degree ends there. As they will be treated as foreigners—even though a substantive part of the Palestinian population is born and bred in Lebanon—several professions will continue to be blacklisted and Palestinians will for example not be able to work as engineers, doctors, lawyers as these roles continue to be reserved for Lebanese citizens.
The law represents the lowest common acceptable terms for the divided Lebanese political scene which has long quarreled over the presence of such a large population of Palestinians because of its potential to alter the country’s delicate sectarian balance. A mass-influx of Palestinian refugees and armed Palestinian groups in the 1970s contributed to the outbreak of a 15-year civil war in Lebanon. To be sure, the growth of the Muslim population in part as a result of the Palestinian presence has been a particular source of concern for the Christian population, which until the landmark 1990 Taif accord, had a constitutionally protected political upper hand. In more recent years, unofficial estimates have put the Muslim population above the Christian population, raising Christian apprehension over a possible future political marginalisation in the case of constitutional amendments to existing representation mechanisms. As a result, Christian parties have supported only limited improvements to Palestinian rights, and pushed hard keep land-ownership rights only in the hands of citizens. The land-ownership issue is particularly sensitive as it is seen as a step on the way to a possible naturalisation of Palestinian refugees.
The new bill is part of previous limited steps taken to improve the plight of Palestinians is to some degree the result of outside pressure on Lebanon to improve the refugees’ situation, locked as they are into a restricted lifestyle within 12 official refugee camps scattered across the country. The situation is particularly acute as the camps have become breeding ground for Islamist militants that operate relatively freely as camps are off limits to Lebanese troops. In 2005 parliament passed a bill removing restrictions on Palestinians working in many technical and clerical professions on temporary work visas, however, according to Human Rights Watch, the effect of this reform has been slim as only a marginal number of work-visas are given to Palestinians.
Competing to Explore
Rushed by recent Israeli offshore gas prospects, parliament also passed an energy law yesterday. The bill authorises offshore oil and gas exploration and drilling. Speaking to Agence France-Presse (AFP) speaker of parliament Nabih Berri said of the bill: "This is definitely a major cornerstone in Lebanon’s oil policy...and will help Lebanon divide its reserves into blocks and eventually bring in tenders and start looking into" production-sharing agreements. The law paves the way for the creation of an exploration and drilling oversight committee, and it sets up a fund for eventual revenues. The move comes amid growing concern over recent Israeli successes. Earlier this year, U.S.-based Noble Energy said it had come across a potential new discovery at their Rachel and Amit licenses, where survey work has showed up potential for gas reserves of up to 16 trillion cubic feet—nicknamed Leviathan. Noble have said that drilling could potentially begin towards the end of 2010 to clarify the nature of the prospect. The Leviathan field is located offshore Israel, some 130 km from Haifa in northern Israel.
The Leviathan prospect comes on the back of the 2009 Tamar discovery, also offshore Haifa. Lebanese officials have laid claim to Israeli successes, warning any attempts at drilling in Lebanese waters or exploiting resources from any jointly held reserves. The issue has raised the perennially tense regional atmosphere, and added concerns that a major rift could break out between the enemy states as their maritime borders remain undefined. No doubt, the prospect of an early Israeli success at Leviathan is the main motivation for breaking the energy law deadlock.
Outlook and Implications
Nevertheless, the prospect of successful offshore explorations even in the longer term is highly meaningful for Lebanon. Lacking the vast hydrocarbon resources that many of its regional peers are endowed with, such a boost could significantly improve the economy. After all, Lebanon has one of the highest public debts as measured against GDP, as public debt has swelled to US$47 billion (about 180% of GDP). Lebanon is clearly more than keen to commence its own explorations, reflected by the apparently unanimous approval by MPs yesterday. Ali Hamdan, an aide to speaker Berri, was cited by The Daily Star as saying that end Lebanon is aiming to have its maritime borders drawn, and exploration areas divided into blocs ready for auctioning and licensing. Nevertheless, while there are strong political and economic motivations for ensuring that the regulatory environment is in place, the timeframe may nevertheless be optimistic.
As for the law pertaining to Palestinian refugees, the shortcomings for Palestinians are clear. Nevertheless, the law drew praise from both Palestinian leaders and from Israel. Palestinian ambassador Abdullah Abdullah, called the move a "progressive step forward", while Israel’s deputy foreign minister Danny Ayalon said: "This is only a small step that is long overdue on the way to completely naturalising them in Lebanon and in other places around the world that host Palestinians." To be sure, Israel is in favour of Arab states naturalising Palestinian refugees, not least because this could affect the Palestinian "right of return" claim for refugees as a core part of any peace deal negotiated with Israel. The Palestinian Authority meanwhile, is not seeking to push Arab states to naturalise refugees wholesale, for exactly the same reasons. As for other regional states, the Lebanese reform could be a nudge in the right direction to improve the rights of Palestinians, but no state should be expected to expand these rights towards naturalisation. In the meanwhile, the debate over the plight and future of Palestinian refugees will continue to brew in Lebanon.
