IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The Basque separatist group ETA yesterday declared a ceasefire, pledging to join the democratic process in order to pursue its ambition of an independent Basque country. |
Implications | The announcement has been met with scepticism at both the regional and national level, especially since ETA failed to renounce violence in its ceasefire declaration. |
Outlook | The national government has been burned in the past by negotiating with ETA during a period of ceasefire, and as a result any attempts to get the separatist group included in "democratic processes" are likely to be slow-moving. In addition, concerns have been raised that the weakened ETA is using the ceasefire as a ploy to gain time to reorganise and rebuild its operational capabilities, which have been eroded by the effective security clampdown imposed by the Spanish and French authorities. |
In a videotaped statement, the violent Basque separatist group Euskadi ta Askatasuna (ETA; Basque Country and Freedom) yesterday announced that it had ordered a "halt in attacks", thereby declaring a ceasefire. In the statement, broadcast by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) and published simultaneously on the Web site of the Basque-language newspaper Gara, three masked ETA representatives indicated that they were willing to engage in democratic processes to achieve their primary goal: an independent Basque country. The representatives of the group featured in the video also stated that, "ETA makes it known that for several months now it has made the decision to no longer carry out offensive armed action." ETA has not claimed a victim on Spanish soil since July 2009, although militants belonging to the group are believed to have shot dead a policeman in France during March this year. The announcement comes just days after ETA's political wing, the outlawed Batasuna, issued a call alongside its new ally, the radical left Eusko Alkartasuna (EA) party, for the separatist group to agree to an internationally verified ceasefire.
Local and National Leaders Unconvinced
The ceasefire declaration has been met with strong scepticism among local and national leaders. The regional Basque government's interior minister, Rodolfo Ares, issued a statement criticising the separatist group and its ceasefire overtures. Ares indicated that the "time for truce has passed" and that the ceasefire is insufficient since the group has not declared that it is laying down its weapons permanently. Meanwhile, socialist prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero stated that he is "disappointed and deeply sceptical" of the ceasefire. The government has been burned in the past by its dealings with ETA, engaging in peace negotiations during the separatist group's last permanent ceasefire in 2006 only to see the group stage a deadly bomb attack at Madrid's Barajas International Airport. The negotiations and subsequent violent end to the ceasefire opened the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) up to accusations of being soft on ETA and failing to take the appropriate action to ensure that the group was put out of commission. As a result of its past experiences, which promoted the PSOE to declare that it would be unwilling to compromise with the Basque separatists again until they renounced violence and disarmed, the government will be very cautious in formulating a policy to deal with the new "ceasefire".
Outlook and Implications
Over the past two years Spanish authorities, in co-operation with French and Portuguese police, have instigated a very effective clampdown on ETA and its political and military organisation. Since 2008 a string of military and political leaders has been arrested, while authorities have also uncovered and confiscated a number of arms and explosives caches. ETA's popularity in the Basque region has also waned considerably in recent years, with moderate nationalist parties ousted from regional government for the first time in 30 years at elections during 2009. The end result of the security clampdown and the group's waning popularity has been a weakening of ETA, which is likely to be behind the group's ceasefire declaration. In the past 30 years, ETA has declared 11 different ceasefires, usually breaking the peace with an act of deadly violence. This pattern has not gone unnoticed and is likely to make government officials even warier of engaging in any type of negotiations with the group until it has fully renounced violence and wound up its activities. Such a move is unlikely to come and the group has been accused of declaring the ceasefire in a bid to buy time to reorganise and regroup in the wake of the government clampdown.
Aside from its lack of credibility, the ceasefire declaration has raised a number of questions: will the group be surrendering its weapons?; is the ceasefire permanent or temporary?; and will the organisation continue with other non-violent illegal activities such as extorting local businesses? The ceasefire has also pushed to the forefront speculation about possible divisions within the ETA leadership, between those in favour of taking a more moderate stance and those looking to continue pursuing the aim of an independent Basque country through violent means. It may well later emerge that the ceasefire was declared by moderates but could be disregarded by hardliners. It is as yet unclear if the ceasefire marks the beginning of the end of the 51-year period of violence instigated by the separatist group or is simply a pause in the conflict. The answer to this question will become apparent only with time and the active engagement of the militant group in negotiations.