IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The dates for Nigeria's elections have been set. The National Assembly election will be on 15 January, followed by the presidential election on 22 January; gubernatorial and State Assembly elections will take place a week after that, on 29 January. |
Implications | The new dates have been challenged by politicians and civil society as it appears as though corners will be cut and a credible process will be compromised. |
Outlook | Over the next few weeks, the discourse will be around which candidates will be chosen as flag bearers in the party primaries. Speculation is mounting that President Goodluck Jonathan will join the race. |
The discussion over a January election date has been around for a while but it was only this week that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) firmly set the dates for the polls. The National Assembly election will be on 15 January, followed by the presidential election on 22 January. Gubernatorial and State Assembly elections will take place a week after that, on 29 January. This is effectively accelerating the electoral process by three months, since the polls were long scheduled for April, which has become the convention, before tenures expire in May at the latest. Yet since Goodluck Jonathan came to power following the death of then-president Umaru Yar'Adua, there have been a number of changes in a relatively short space of time. Notably, the electoral laws have been changed as well as the constitution, in a bid for these elections to make up for the shortcomings of the last set of elections. Motivated by the stated objective of ensuring that there is enough of a time gap between when the elections are held and when the newly elected representatives take up their posts—to allow for any electoral disputes to be resolved before new positions are taken up—the electoral timetable was changed.
The Cases For and Against
Such a justification is a bitter pill to swallow for many domestic constituents. Concerns abound over the efficacy of the electoral process and the ability of stakeholders to carry out the necessary functions before the polls occur. Following the dismissal of the much-reviled former INEC head (see Nigeria: 30 April 2010: Acting President Dismisses Electoral Body Head in Nigeria), there had been delays in appointing a new electoral commission; thus the commission only really started work in August. Concretely, it means that the INEC must be speedy in its compilation of a voter register, but new INEC chief Attahiru Jega is confident. By his estimates, the voter register will be complete by 9 December. However, he has also acknowledged that "the more time we have, the better job we can do on this assignment," the Nigerian Tribune reports. Some politicians and pro-democracy groups have taken on the role of naysayer in the political discourse that has emerged strongly since the announcement of this date. The Yoruba socio-political movement, the Afenifere Renewal Group, fears that the elections will create a "bandwagon effect" while the Patriotic Alliance of Nigeria (PAN)—which pools together some 14 different political parties—is calling for the timetable to be reversed, labelling it a blunder while the opposition Action Congress (AC) has described the election date as unrealistic. Yet there is external consensus regarding the new timetable. The U.K. government has said that the release of the 2010 timetable by INEC was crucial to ensure that the polls are credible. It has also welcomed the appointment of Jega as INEC chairman and views the elections as an opportunity for Nigeria's democracy: "As Nigeria celebrates 50 years of independence, this is a tremendous opportunity for Nigeria to set an example to others in all aspects of its new democratic system," U.K. minister for Africa Henry Bellingham said.
Outlook and Implications
Nigeria's executive has repeatedly insisted on the need to ensure that the elections are credible, and not a repeat of the disappointing election processes of 2003 and 2007 where irregularities, fraud, and intimidation became customary. The task ahead of INEC is indeed titan. Not only must it ensure that the voter register is completed, it also must vet the nomination process of each party. The next few weeks will be dominated by more intense debate over party nominees and parties preparing to hold their primaries, although it is almost a foregone conclusion that the ruling People's Democratic Party choice will become Nigeria's next leader. Jonathan still has not explicitly stated his own presidential intentions, but all indications point to the incumbent president contesting—he has already appointed a campaign manager—in spite of the opposition to this, mainly from some northern governors who support the rotation principle (see Nigeria: 23 August 2010: Police Prohibit Pro-Presidential Rally in Northern Nigerian State).