Turkey Votes "Yes" in Constitutional Referendum, Ruling Party Bolstered

Turkey's electorate yesterday voted in a highly controversial referendum on 26 constitutional changes proposed by the ruling conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP). Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was quick to declare victory, announcing that the changes had been approved by 58% of the electorate, following a 77% turnout in the poll. The "no" camp garnered 42% of the vote, largely in the western cities. In his victory speech, Erdogan was eager to portray the "yes" vote as a victory for democracy, stating that Turkey has "crossed a historic threshold toward advanced democracy and the supremacy of law", while pouring scorn on the opposition by declaring that "the mentality that opposes change has lost". The referendum has been widely viewed as a test of the ruling AKP's popularity in the run up to the planned 2011 general election. The decisive "yes" vote has indicated that Erdogan continues to have his fingers firmly on the electorate's pulse, as well as boosting his confidence as he launches efforts to be re-elected to power for a third consecutive term. At the same time, the large amount of support for the "no" camp has indicated the highly polarised nature of Turkish society, and could pave the way for further tensions between the secular and religious camps in the future. In addition, clashes in largely Kurdish provinces during voting have demonstrated the ongoing tensions between the minority and the government.

Package of Reforms

Turkey's voters were asked to vote on a whole package of reforms to the 1982 constitution with a single "yes" or "no". The electorate has chosen to endorse the reforms, which include strengthening the oversight of military justice and broadening civil liberties and anti-discriminatory practices. However, aspects of the reforms have proven highly controversial. Specifically, the government's desire to reform judicial oversight and the appointment of members to a number of high judicial councils has led to accusations that the AKP is looking to erode the independence of judges and the courts.

• Judicial Reform: The most questionable aspect of the reform is to allow parliament more powers over the appointment of members to two judicial councils. The president and parliament will have a bigger role in the selection of judges to the Constitutional Court (enlarged from 7 to 11 judges). In addition, parliament will be given some powers in the selection of members to the Supreme Board of Prosecutors and Judges (HSYK; enlarged from 7 to 22 members), which is charged with hiring and dismissing judges and state prosecutors. These changes have led to accusations that the AKP is attempting to weaken the independence of the judiciary and subject courts and judges to the political sways of government. This charge has been denied by the government, which has rebutted by stating that the change will ensure the judiciary is no longer under the exclusive influence of the secular opposition.
• Military Control: The changes are looking to boost civilian control of the military. To this end, the decisions of the High Military Council, charged with overseeing promotions and dismissals, will be reviewed by civilian courts to ensure there is no unfair targeting of Islamists, and military courts will also lose the right to try civilians. Conversely, civilian courts would gain the right to try military officers charged with plotting coups. In addition, the leaders of the 1980 military coup will lose their immunity from prosecution, which is currently guaranteed by the constitution.
• Liberty and Civil Rights: A number of changes are looking to strengthen the rights of the individual and minimise discrimination. To this effect, affirmative action programmes strengthening the rights of women, children, and the disabled will be allowed. In addition, individuals will be able to bring cases to the constitutional court, a right currently reserved for institutions such as political parties. Parliament will also be required to elect an ombudsman, with the aim of strengthening transparency over Turkey's extensive bureaucracy. This is a pre-condition for European Union (EU) membership. Finally, it also gives civil servants the right to collective bargaining, although not the right to strike.

Support from Abroad

Throughout campaigning, the government has been eager to portray the reforms as being essential for the greater democratisation of the country, and as essential for Turkey's EU membership bid. The proposed amendments do contain several changes approved by the EU; however, they also ignore key EU demands—such as a lowering of the 10% electoral threshold that keeps Kurdish parties out of parliament—and the AKP has insisted on bundling the EU-backed changes into a single package that also contains much more controversial proposals. Nonetheless, the West has endorsed the referendum results, with U.S. president Barack Obama declaring that it represents the "vibrancy of Turkish democracy", while EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Füle hailed the reforms as a "step in the right direction" in addressing "a number of long-standing priorities in Turkey's efforts towards fully complying with [EU] accession criteria". At the same time, Füle warned that implementation would remain key in translating the reforms into positive changes for Turkey's political environment, while more also needed to be done to secure fundamental rights.

Outlook and Implications

While being a victory for the AKP and Erdogan, the "yes" vote is a defeat for Turkey's main opposition parties—the Republican People's Party and Nationalist Action Party—as well as for the main Kurdish parties the Peace and Democracy Party and the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party. The secular opposition had attempted to convince the public that the reforms are part of an attempt by Erdogan and the AKP to strengthen authoritarianism in Turkey and erode the secular state. This argument clearly failed to gain sufficient traction with the public, exposing the opposition's continued weakness in eroding the power and influence of the AKP. The markets are also expected to respond positively to the "yes" vote, given that it is an indication of continued stability in Turkish politics, making it likely that messy coalition building (which would be required by opposition parties) is likely to be avoided, as well as allowing Erdogan to approach the 2011 general election from a position of strength.

The "yes" vote is also a victory for the AKP in its long-standing battle with the judiciary. In 2008, it narrowly escaped being closed down by the Constitutional Court after being found guilty of attempting to undermine the constitutional principle of secularism. Instead, the court, which is dominated by hard-line secularists appointed before the AKP first came to power in November 2002, voted to fine the party US$20 million. More recently, in January 2010, the HSYK dismissed four pro-AKP prosecutors who had charged a secular prosecutor with membership of a terrorist organisation after he allegedly uncovered evidence that religious groups affiliated with the AKP had been fixing state contracts. In addition, the country's top courts have also barred AKP proposals to abolish a ban on the Islamic headscarf in universities.