Election 2010: Kyrgyz Opposition Party Gains Narrow Lead in "Historic" Parliamentary Vote

Surprising Forerunner

Contrary to hopes that pro-governmental parties would win the extra-term parliamentary contest, the preliminary results point to the opposition nationalist Ata-Zhurt (Fatherland) as the forerunner. With 93.87% of polling stations' reports counted, Central Election Commission (CEC) chairman Akylbek Sariev stated today that five parties are leading in yesterday's election to the Jogorku Kenesh, the National Assembly. Ata-Zhurt, headed by former emergency situations minister Kamchybek Tashiyev is leading the polls with 235,878 out of 1,212,334 total number of voters, or about 19% of votes. It is followed by the pro–presidential Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK) with 18%, Ar-Namys, led by pro–Russian former prime minister Felix Kulov with 16%; Respublika with 15.8% and Ata-Meken, led by former speaker of parliament and architect of Kyrgyzstan's new constitution, Omurbek Tekebayev, with 13% of the vote. According to the CEC around 42.5% of the 2.8 million Kyrgyz voters took part in the poll, which is significantly lower than the turnout for the constitutional referendum on 27 June, although with the final vote count this figure may rise. Some 29 parties with over 3,000 candidates ran for the 120-mandate unicameral parliament. The ballot papers were over 70 cm long and printed in both Kyrgyz and Russian. Parties were required to cross the 5% threshold and also collect at least 0.5% of votes from a number of registered voters in each of Kyrgyzstan's seven regions to be able to enter the Jogorku Kenesh. The CEC has stated that the final outcome will be ready on 13 October.

Interim President Roza Otunbayeva, who led the popular uprising against the authoritarian president Kurmanbek Bakiyev in April 2010, has called the election a historic step and crucial to the future of the Central Asian country. About 850 international observers from 50 countries and 30 international organisations—including the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)—have monitored the election, which was conducted in a relatively transparent fashion. To prevent forgery, voters' thumbs were marked with an invisible chemical agent at the entrance to polling stations. Despite the efforts to have a fair contest, there have been a number of complaints, especially from Ar-Namys.

Once elected, the new parliament will be the first legitimately elected body charged with the task of forming a government and electing a prime minister since the April revolution that saw the ousting of the former president and dismantling of his highly centralised and nepotistic regime. The new PM will effectively run the country while the president will have less executive power, as envisaged by the constitutional changes that converted Kyrgyzstan from a highly centralised presidential republic into a parliamentary democracy, to prevent the return of an authoritarian regime.

Beginning of Turbulent Parliamentary Democracy

With the election of five diverse political parties, Kyrgyzstan is bracing itself for a parliamentary democracy that is set to bring vibrant parliamentary politics with constantly realigning coalitions. The election delivered the first surprise as Ata-Zhurt took first place. The party has emerged as a nationalistic force led by former emergency situations minister Kamchybek Tashiyev. Ironically, Otunbayeva was one of the party's co-founders in 2004 when she fell out with then-president Akayev and crossed over to the opposition. Ata-Zhurt subsequently became a pro-Bakiyev party and Otunbayeva left it in 2007 in opposition to his increasingly authoritarian policies and joined the SDPK. In the wake of the ethnic clashes that had all the traits of attempted ethnic cleansing of Uzbeks, Ata-Zhurt has been successful in capitalising on ethnic mistrust. In a controversial recent statement, Tashiyev announced that Russian, Uzbek, Turkish and other minorities cannot expect to have the same rights as Kyrgyz. His party headquarters were attacked on 6 October by relatives of those killed by security services during the anti-Bakiyev April uprising, after the news that the party has allegedly been advocating Bakiyev's return. Prior to the election, the party also called for the closure of the U.S. military airbase in Manas, a vital logistical route for the NATO-led anti-Taliban campaign in Afghanistan. In some ways Ata-Zhurt's victory was predictable as it appeals to the nationalistic sentiments of ethnic Kyrgyz, many of whom feel that the mid-June ethnic clashes were misrepresented particularly in the West and that Kyrgyz are as much victims of the violence as Uzbeks. Moreover it is alluring for those who used to have privileged economic and administrative status thanks to their close ties to Bakiyev's ruling elite but are bitter with the new revolutionary government responsible for the loss of those positions.

Despite having the most votes, Ata-Zhurt has to try hard to attract coalition members. Thus far Ar-Namys of Felix Kulov looks the most likely option as he is equally against the SDPK and Ata-Meken and their experiments with introducing parliamentary democracy to Kyrgyzstan. Kulov, who enjoys close ties with the Russian leadership, has openly a supported strong presidential republic, much like the one in Russia and hence could counterbalance the natural alliance of pro-presidential SDPK and Ata-Meken. However Kulov, being an anti-Bakiyev politician, is not a natural ally for the largely pro-Bakiyev Ata- Zhurt, which makes their alliance less likely. Against this background, Respublika is in the enviable position of kingmaker. Led by former member of parliament and entrepreneur Omurbek Babanov, the party is a pro-business, mainly southern Kyrgyz political force which may well join forces with SDPK-Ata-Meken. However this is most certainly not a foregone conclusion as its leaders spoke in favour of a presidential republic prior to the election, indicating that Respublika is leaning towards Ata-Zhurt's and Ar-Namys' political line supporting a strong presidency.

Outlook and Implications

Whatever the outcome of the election, Kyrgyzstan can celebrate its ability to hold a democratic vote without violence and in a relatively transparent fashion—a feat unseen in the past two decades in Kyrgyzstan or in any of the other former Central Asian republics. The country has made a historic step in launching a parliamentary democracy, hoping that the new democratic mechanisms will help Kyrgyzstan to root out corruption and the nepotism of ruling elites and create a business-friendly and non–oligarchic environment to end debilitating poverty. Most importantly, its advocates hope that interethnic conflicts between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks will end with the introduction of proper representation of all ethnic minorities in the parliament and state institutions. The democratic effort is also a testimony to the Kyrgyz citizens' resolve to defy living under corrupt authoritarian regimes run by former presidents Askar Akayev and Bakiyev—both ousted within five years, in 2005 and 2010 respectively—and determination to find a better way to run the country.

However, the electoral success of Ata-Zhurt and the unexpectedly poor performance of Ata-Meken indicate that the revolutionary leaders will have to work harder to see their plans materialise. The election results firstly indicate that not many Kyrgyz believe in parliamentary democracy, but they do wish to see stability that a presidential republic could provide, much like in Russia. Secondly, the nationalist sentiment is very strong among ethnic Kyrgyz in the wake of the deadly June clashes, a factor that can be easily used to gain supporters by parties like Ata-Zhurt. If the pro-presidential parties manage to create a ruling coalition, they will face a powerful opposition from the nationalists of Ata- Zhurt and pragmatic Kulov’s Ar-Namys, both advocating a strong-man style political system. Furthermore, if some of the southern political circles —which are traditionally more nationalistic and generally supportive of the ousted president's regime—feel that they are being sidelined in the upcoming government formation, they may resort to stirring instability, mostly in the form of ethnic clashes, to hinder a pro-Otunbayeva government. Hence, the Kyrgyz president and her supporters need to work hard to mediate a power-sharing arrangement to preclude such feelings.

Following the election, Otunbayeva said that it is vital to build a parliamentary democracy. She added that it is not an imported idea but a return to Kyrgyz traditions of collective decision-making. How well these traditions will work to prevent a return to violence will be proven in the coming months.