IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Brazilians will on Sunday choose between Dilma Rousseff of the Workers' Party (PT) and José Serra of the main opposition party the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB). |
Implications | The success of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's government in delivering stronger economic growth and increased social mobility has meant that the main wish of the electorate is continuity rather than change. This concern has overshadowed other issues such as the debate about religion and abortion as well as the scandals that continue to dominate the campaign. |
Outlook | According to polls, Rousseff has a 12-14% lead over her main rival, making it extremely likely that she will be elected the country's first ever female president on Sunday. |
Second Round
Latin America's largest economy faces a run-off vote on Sunday (31 October) between Dilma Rousseff of the Workers' Party (PT) and José Serra of the main opposition party, the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) after no single candidate obtained the minimum of 51% of the valid vote needed to secure an outright first-round victory on 3 October. A first-round victory for Rousseff had appeared possible only a month before. However, her popularity slipped in the final weeks of the campaign following the emergence of a corruption scandal involving a former aide at the ministry that Rousseff headed prior to launching her candidacy. There was also speculation that Rousseff lost votes to the Green Party (PV) candidate Marina Silva in the final days as a result of the mobilisation of the anti-abortion vote by religious groups. The final results showed Rousseff with 46.91% of the vote, giving her a 14% lead over the former governor of São Paulo, who came in second place with 32.61% of the vote. Silva came in third place with 19.33% of the vote.
Polls ahead of the second-round vote put Rousseff firmly in the lead. A Datafolha poll released today gives Rousseff 56% of the valid vote (excluding blank, null, and undecided votes) against 44% for Serra. Meanwhile an Ibope survey published yesterday by gave Rousseff a 14% lead over Serra. Rousseff had 57% of the valid vote compared with 43% for Serra. Both polls had a margin of error of plus or minus 2%.
The Candidates
- Dilma Rousseff: Born to a Bulgarian father and Brazilian mother, she spent three years in prison during the military regime for participating in guerrilla activities. She was a member of the PDT for a number of years before joining the PT in 2000. An economist by training, Rousseff has a reputation for being a competent administrator and has shown notable determination both in her professional and personal life, having continued official engagements last year despite undergoing medical treatment for preliminary-stage lymphatic cancer. She has held two ministerial posts in the Lula government, minister of energy and mines (2003–05) and chief of staff (2005–10), a role that included responsibility for overseeing the implementation of the government's flagship economic programme, the PAC. She has never before held an elected post.
- José Serra: Serra is a former student leader who spent 14 years in exile following the 1964 military coup. During this time he mainly lived in Chile and the United States, where he did a doctorate in Economics at Cornell University. On his return to Brazil Serra occupied the post of secretary of economy and planning in the São Paulo state government (1983–86). He later served two terms as a federal deputy representing the state of São Paulo and one term as a senator, before being appointed minister for planning (1995–96) during president Fernando Henrique Cardoso's first administration. He stepped down from the ministry in order to make an unsuccessful bid for the governorship of São Paulo, but returned to the cabinet in 1998 as minister of health. As health minister, Serra received international recognition for setting up Brazil's successful anti-AIDS programme and getting multinational drug companies to lower their prices. Since then he has served as mayor of São Paulo and governor of that state. This is the second time that Serra is running for president on a PSDB ticket, he took part in the 2002 contest but lost to Lula in the run-off vote.
Gubernatorial Run-Offs
Second-round votes will also be held on Sunday in eight states plus the Federal District, where no gubernatorial candidate won an outright majority in the first round of voting (i.e., more than 50% of the vote). Key contests in the second round include the Federal District seat, where the PT candidate Agnello Queiroz was just 3% short of an outright victory against the substitute for Joaquim Roriz, the former governor whose eligibility as a candidate was being debated by the STF prior to his withdrawal from the race in favour of his wife (see Brazil: 1 September 2010: Court Bars Former Governor's Re-Election Bid in Brazil and Brazil: 1 July 2010: Brazil's Supreme Court Rejects Request for Intervention in Federal District). Other states where corruption scandals have overshadowed the campaign include Amapá, which is due to go to a second round without the candidate who was implicated, and Alagoas where one of the candidates, Ronaldo Lessa of the PDT, was indicted by the federal police earlier this week for alleged corruption over billing of public works projects (see Brazil: 21 September 2010: Brazilian Governor Returns to Post Following Release from Prison; Head of Post Office Resigns). The other states where run-off votes will be held on 31 October are Goiás, Pará, Paraíba, Piauí, Rondônia, and Roraima.
Outlook and Implications
As President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's second four-year term comes to an end, the country is much more confident about its future than when he was first sworn in. The economy was one of the last into and first out of the international financial crisis, and although the 9.3% annualised growth rate seen in the first half of 2010 is not sustainable, IHS Global Insight is projecting GDP growth in the 7.5–7.8% range for full-year 2010 and a very respectable (by Brazilian standards) annual GDP growth in the range of 5.5–6.5% over the next five years, with momentum in the medium term maintained by the heavy investment requirements of upcoming global sporting events and the country's booming oil sector. There have also been impressive social gains with 29 million people escaping poverty over the past eight years, around half the population now considered middle class and the elimination of extreme poverty by 2016 a realistic goal (see Brazil: 13 June 2010: Study Says Extreme Poverty Can Be Eliminated in Brazil). These advances and his personal charisma help to explain why Lula is the country's most popular president since the return to democracy with popular approval ratings as high as 80%. This in turn has made it much harder for the opposition to present itself as a viable alternative and given Rousseff a clear advantage, as who better to present themselves as the "continuity" candidate than the one handpicked by Lula himself.
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