IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | A hail of 50 North Korean shells landed on the South Korean border island of Yeonpyeong today causing the death of two soldiers and injuring 15 military personnel and three civilians, according to Defense Ministry official Kiyheon Kwon. South Korea responded by putting F-16 fighter jets on alert and convening an emergency meeting at the presidential office. |
Implications | The Yellow Sea maritime boundary has long been a point of tension between the two Koreas. The North refuses to recognise the dividing Northern Limit Line, which was drawn up unilaterally by the United Nations at the end of the 1950–53 Korean War. |
Outlook | Domestically, South Korea's President Lee Myung-bak is likely to use the incident to re-affirm his hard-line policy towards the North. Internationally, the attack will further strengthen the U.S.-South Korea alliance, which is already in the best shape it has been in recent years. However, the clashes represent yet another setback for the resumption of six-party denuclearisation talks. |
North Korea Fires Artillery at Tense Western Border
North Korea fired artillery across its western sea border with South Korea today, according to South Korea's official Yonhap news agency. Approximately 50 North Korean shells landed on the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong, close to the contested Yellow Sea border. Two soldiers were killed, while 15 military personnel and three civilians were injured. South Korea responded by returning fire towards its northern neighbour. The Seoul government also put F-16 fighter jets on alert and convened an emergency meeting at the presidential office. South Korea's President Lee Myung-bak said he would make efforts to prevent the exchange of fire from escalating into a wider conflict on the Peninsula. At the same time, he expressed a willingness to take a more hard-line response if the Pyongyang regime continues with provocations. Speaking at a regular news conference, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Hong Lei, expressed the Beijing government's concern and called on the "relevant parties to do more to contribute to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula". Meanwhile, markets in the region fell into chaos, with the South Korean won down and shares falling.
"Hoguk" Triggers Retaliation
The attack appears to have been a response to military exercises taking place in contested waters in the Yellow Sea. South Korea has been carrying out live-fire exercises in waters off Baengnyeong and Yeonpyeong islands as part of an annual nine-day military exercise called operation "Hoguk". The drill is aimed at enhancing its defence capabilities against North Korean provocations. According to South Korean officials, the Pyongyang government sent a faxed message to the South this morning saying that it would not simply "sit back" while the drill took place.
An Ongoing Flaspoint Between the Two Koreas
The island has long been a flashpoint due to its location just a few kilometres away from the tense maritime border between the two Koreas in the Yellow Sea, known as the Northern Limit Line (NLL). The NLL was drawn up by the United Nations in 1953 at the end of the Korean War. However, North Korea has objected to the delineation since the early 1970s, complaining that it forces North Korean ships to take convoluted routes to access international sea lanes. There was a brief period of optimism in 2007 after the two Koreas struck an agreement to transform the area into a "zone of peace", but the pact was never implemented. South Korea continues to maintain a large military garrison on the island and keeps one of its latest class of "patrol killer" guided-missile ships there. The island is also equipped with 19 bomb shelters, and residents conduct monthly air raid drills. In this way, the population of Yeonpyeong Island are familiar with acts of North Korean aggression. In June, North Korea responded to joint U.S.-South Korean military drills in the Yellow Sea by firing 130 artillery shells towards the island—although only ten of these actually landed on the opposite side of the NLL. Furthermore, the first battle of Yeonpyeong in 1999 resulted in the deaths of up to 30 North Korean sailors, while the second battle in 2002 saw a North Korean patrol boat sink a Chamsuri-class (Sea Dolphin/Wildcat) fast-attack craft, killing six South Korean sailors. Amid rising tension on the Korean Peninsula last year, the Seoul government took the opportunity to demonstrate its resolve during a naval clash in the Yellow Sea in November 2009.
Rising Nuclear Stakes
The latest skirmish comes just after U.S. scientist Siegfred Hecker revealed the existence of a sophisticated uranium-enrichment facility, including 2,000 completed centrifuges, following a visit to North Korea on 12 November (see United States - North Korea: 22 November 2010: U.S. Army Chief Hits Out at North Korean Nuclear Activity). Hecker revealed that the centrifuge cascades were much more advanced than previously believed, triggering serious concern in the U.S. government that this could accelerate the North's ability to produce nuclear weapons. Hecker noted that while the facilities appeared to be aimed at providing civilian nuclear power, they could also be converted to produce highly enriched uranium bomb fuel with relative ease. In response to the news, the Seoul administration now appears to have re-opened the debate on the re-deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons in the country. South Korea's Defence Minister Kim Tae-young has reportedly told parliament that the issue will be raised during an upcoming U.S.-South Korean Defence Committee meeting.
Outlook and Implications
The latest clash constitutes North Korea's most serious assault on civilian targets since it planted a bomb on a South Korean airliner, killing 115 people in 1987. It comes after the third son of North Korea's ailing leader, Kim Jong-il, was effectively confirmed as successor-in-waiting at a Workers' Party of Korea convention in Pyongyang in September. The display of such belligerent behaviour suggests that Kim junior may be flexing his muscles as a way of shoring up capital within the North Korean political elite, and particularly the military. The attack feeds into already heightened tension between the two Koreas following the March sinking of a South Korean naval ship, the Cheonan, which led to the deaths of 46 sailors. Although the Pyongyang government has repeatedly denied any involvement in the incident, a multi-national investigation in May indicated that a North Korean torpedo had been used. For President Lee, the incident is likely to bolster his hard-line policy towards the North, providing him with further evidence to back-up his foreign policy. Here it is worth noting that Lee has shown no sign of retreating from his tough stance towards North Korea since the Cheonan incident. Internationally, the attack will further strengthen the U.S.-South Korean alliance, already in the best shape that it has been in recent years. The Cheonan sinking brought together the two allies against North Korea. South Korea's recent announcement of its sanctions on Iran reaffirmed the spirit of the relationship. Regarding six-party talks, the incident deals another blow to prospects for their resumption. Recent weeks have seen the Washington and Seoul governments thinking about how to move on from the Cheonan incident, but nuclear negotiations now look set to remain on the backburner as tension on the Korean Peninsula spikes once again.