Violence Spreads Across Maldives Following Ouster of Government

Although it was weeks of violent protests that eventually led to the resignation of former president Mohamed Nasheed on Tuesday (7 February; see Maldives: 7 February 2012: Police Mutiny Prompts President's Resignation in Maldives), clashes are now increasingly breaking out between supporters of Nasheed's Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) and supporters of the erstwhile opposition that is now in power. Security forces have become the primary target of attacks carried out since yesterday. Marking the worst violence since 2003, violent protests initially erupted in the capital city, Male, where security forces have been locked in street battles with thousands of MDP supporters since yesterday (8 February). Different media sources have reported two or three deaths in these clashes, although these remained unconfirmed at the time of writing. Agence France-Presse (AFP) also reported that among the casualties was Nasheed himself, who was beaten and then briefly arrested yesterday, while several other MPs of the former government were also injured and detained. In a press conference given at his house today, Nasheed claimed that "200 or so police and 80 military officers helped the opposition change the government", adding that "police and military were very brutal; they beat me very badly. We all fear for our safety". Should reports that the criminal court has issued an arrest warrant for Nasheed and his former defence minister—as reported by the MDP and the Sri Lanka-based Minivan news service—be true, this is likely to further fuel the unrest. A government statement confirmed today that Nasheed's immediate family have left the country for Sri Lanka.

Since yesterday, the violence has spread and the current state of instability in the Indian Ocean island state was underscored today when Abdulla Sodig, the mayor of the country's second-largest city Addu (about 32,000 inhabitants), claimed a "complete breakdown" of law and order in the city, according to AFP. The report quotes Sodig as saying that riots in the city resulted in damage to at least one courthouse, two police stations and a private residence. Military spokesman Abdul Raheem Abdul Latheef confirmed today that the violence prompted the deployment of 300 troops from Male, which is located about 500 km north of Addu. In addition to Addu and Male, the Maldives Police Service (MPS) on its website confirmed further breakouts of violence in at least six other islands. The MPS reports that on Thinadhoo Island the police station, the magistrates' court and the council office have been set ablaze, and all cars belonging to the MPS were destroyed; the police stations on Faresmaathodaa and Millandhoo were taken over by MDP supporters; the police station on Fuvamulak was severely damaged after police prevented a "hostile takeover"; and in Dhuvaafaru and Alifushi protesters locked police officers into the police stations.

In further developments that are likely to stoke fears of radical Islamism gaining a foothold in the Maldives, AFP reported today that a mob destroyed Buddhist statues, among other artefacts, in the country's national museum. The anti-government protests in the weeks preceding Nasheed's downfall were partially led by Islamic parties, one of which previously left the ruling coalition over claims that the former government was acting in "un-Islamic" ways.

Male International Airport, which is located on Hulhule Island, was operating normally today, but the security presence has been increased significantly to avoid possible disruption to flights and, concurrently, the tourism industry, which constitutes the country's main source of income. Additional security forces have also been deployed to the southern Gan Airport, which serves Addu City. The government has continuously stressed that foreign tourists in the country will be safe if they avoid urban agglomerations. The United Kingdom's Foreign & Commonwealth Office issued an updated travel alert yesterday advising against "all but essential travel" to Male Island (the update came before the violence spread across the archipelago). Most tourists are usually directly transferred to small resort islands that have been entirely unaffected by the escalation of hostilities.

Charged Rhetoric Exacerbates Tensions

Government spokesman Mohamed Shareef said in an interview with AFP today that the situation amounted to "anarchy". The MPS in a press release accused MDP supporters of "atrocious acts of inhumane crimes" and warned protesters that "the police will not hesitate to use (the) power vested upon them by the law and let it be known that the MPS will readily sacrifice themselves for the safety and well being of the people of this nation". The MPS, which played a crucial role in the ouster of Nasheed, also said that "it has also been feared that the ongoing protests by the former ruling party have steered towards acts of terrorism and violence". Such accusations are likely to stoke further violence.

Elusive Unity Government

Having promised a government of "national unity" yesterday (unsurprisingly, the MDP in a meeting of its National Council decided today to reject the invitation to join the government), President Waheed made two emergency cabinet appointments to be able to deal with the worsening security situation. Retired colonel Mohamed Nazim was appointed as minister of defence, while lawyer Mohamed Jameel Ahmed was handed the Ministry of Home Affairs. Both appointments are likely to be viewed as controversial by the MDP. While both Nazim and Jameel served under Nasheed, they also held positions in the previous government under former president Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, who has been seeking a return to the political stage since his return to the island state in January 2011. Jameel played a central role in the unrest over the past week; the arrest of the country's chief justice of the criminal court, Abdulla Mohamed, over allegations that he illegally released Jameel from detention was a key trigger for the protests that brought Nasheed down. Jameel, former minister of justice (July 2005–August 2007) and former minister of civil aviation and telecommunications (November 2008–May 2009), was earlier detained without a warrant, on claims that he defamed the MDP-led government during a television interview in which it was argued that he accused the government of acting against Islam, the country's state religion. Jameel is the vice-president of the Dhivehi Qaumee Party (DQP).

Outlook and Implications

Much surrounding the recent events is unclear and at present the situation has to be viewed as fluid. IHS Global Insight is further downgrading its Security Risk Rating for the Maldives from 2.5 to 2.75 to reflect the heightened risk picture. This is a temporary measure that could be reversed if the government consolidates its position and if protests subside. However, at the current stage, it seems probable that the stand-off between the new government under Mohamed Waheed and supporters of the MDP will continue and possibly intensify, given that the latter has issued statements today and yesterday decrying a "coup d'état" and calling on Waheed to resign. The volatility of the situation is exacerbated by weak institutions in the nascent democratic state, including a constitutional and judicial crisis made worse by perceptions that the legal system and the country's security forces are not independent of politics and fractured with regard to allegiance to different political party interests. Consequently, even if Waheed takes every possible measure to defuse the situation, stability is likely to return to the Maldives only once the constitutional crisis and unresolved issues of national identity are sufficiently addressed.