IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Despite high expectations, Russian president Dmitry Medvedev chose to use his first press conference since becoming president to outline a plan of action for the future. However, answering the inevitable questions about his aspirations for 2012's presidential election, Medvedev asked the public to be patient, promising that the decision would be made soon. |
Implications | Medvedev's decision to hold his first press conference at the Skolkovo innovation centre, the heart of his modernisation plan, was to highlight the backbone of his economic reform plan. This is also likely to be the axis of his election campaign. The Russian leader also outlined the main aspects of his foreign policy with a warning of Cold War resumption if the US does not review its missile defence policies in Eastern Europe. |
Outlook | Medvedev's indecisiveness indicates that the start date of the election campaign will not be his sole decision but rather a consensus with his powerful PM Vladimir Putin. The Skolkovo conference was yet another missed opportunity for Medvedev to depart from the tandem with Putin and stand alone as a true challenger for the presidential seat. Conversely, the conference highlighted that Putin is well positioned to use media resources and work on improving his image ahead of the crucial poll without facing any serious challenge from his potential opponents. |
Skirting the Big Question
For the first time since his election as president in 2008, Dmitry Medvedev held a press conference in Russia's innovation centre Skolkovo that many hoped would answer a key question—will he run in the 2012 presidential election. The Russian president, well-prepared to address the issue, expressed his slight disappointment when the all-important question of his election plans was fourth and not first. After that it was Medvedev's turn to disappoint, as he carefully avoided revealing his election plans. Instead he explained that "the political conditions" were not right for revealing his decision. However he added that the decision will be made sooner rather than later. Not only did he not distance himself from his powerful Prime Minister Vladimir Putin—who also has yet to reveal his election plans—but re-affirmed that they remain a tandem. Medvedev said that they are likeminded people who share the same views when it comes to an economic and political strategy for Russia, adding that without these commonalities they would not be able to work together for 20 years. However he stressed that they do not always agree but that disagreement concerns the issues of tactics rather than the overall strategy of making Russia stronger and an economically better place.
"Tactical Differences"
Before talking about the differences Medvedev highlighted the commonalities with Putin. Asked about the future of the political structure of the Russian Federation; in particular the controversial decision made in 2006 by then-president Putin to appoint regional governors, scrapping elections for the post. Medvedev took credit for the constitutional change, revealing that he was responsible for undertaking this change made at the expense of democratic participation and designed to strengthen the Kremlin's grip on the regions. To mitigate his statement, he went on to say that the regional governors should not think that they can stay in power indefinitely.
Modernisation
Medvedev did bring one clear-cut example of his tactical differences with his PM and that is the pace of modernisation. Medvedev has been a keen advocate of modernising the Russian economy, boosting its once-famous "know–how" sector. He hopes that it will also help to diversify the Russian economy away from its current heavy dependence on oil and gas sector. Modernisation hinges on foreign capital and expertise and to attract them to Russia, the president believes that the business environment has to improve. He has been determined to fight corruption and bureaucratic red tape and also strengthen the rule of law. During the conference Medvedev stressed that to achieve modernisation the government has to be more decisive and take more dramatic steps. However, he said that his PM thinks that modernisation is an evolutionary process and will come in time, something with which the president strongly disagrees.
Russian Foreign Policy
Talking about foreign policy issues Medvedev did not point at any apparent differences between him and the prime minister. In recent months the only stark disagreement between Medvedev and Putin came when the Medvedev slammed Putin's description of international intervention into Libya as medieval crusade. There was no repetition of that criticism but instead, Medvedev made a more assertive statement with regards to the US missile defence plans in Eastern Europe. He warned that if the US proceeded with plans for a missile defence system in Europe without Russian co-operation and despite Moscow's concerns, then retaliatory action would be taken. This would include enhancing Russia's nuclear strike capabilities and potentially pulling out of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) signed with the US in April 2010 and only recently formally enacted. Such a scenario, Medvedev stated, would "take us back to the Cold War era". This strongly worded statement was to signal to the US Russia's growing frustration with NATO's reluctance to have more inclusive relations with Russia. However it was also aimed at a domestic audience and particularly the army and security services, who favour Putin for his tough stance on strategic issues. Medvedev seems to have no tactical differences with Putin when it comes to the anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defence shield.
Nor did Medvedev showed a difference of approach towards the countries of the so-called near abroad, a term used by Moscow to refer to former Soviet countries. This was apparent on the issue of Ukraine's foreign policy. Medvedev stated that Ukraine cannot be in two places at the same time—either it has to move westwards and hope that the European Union (EU) will eventually offer membership, or it has to seek better integration with Russia. The only difference between the president's and the PM's stance on Ukraine was in wording, as earlier Putin had urged Ukraine to make up its mind about its foreign economic relations. Putin had warned Kiev that should it pursue a free-trade agreement with the EU, this may lead to building tariff walls with Russia.
Outlook and Implications
Medvedev missed yet another opportunity to present a clear political agenda which would be different from Putin's. As such it yet again showed that Russia is unlikely to see a battle between liberals and conservatives as was hoped for in the West. Medvedev's performance is not surprising given that he has been very careful to co-ordinate his acts with Putin. Thus when he hinted earlier this year in an interview with Chinese media about his plans to run in the 2012 election, he was immediately reminded by Putin that the decision will be made later and not unilaterally. Furthermore, the changes in Russia's political landscape also suggest that the two leaders are carefully orchestrating the upcoming vote. Putin has already declared his intention to create a Popular Front, a political force thought to be the backbone of his campaign. Meanwhile, the second wealthiest man in Russia, billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov is set to lead another pro-Russian party, Right Cause, hinted to be the party backing Medvedev.
It is unclear when the official presidential race will begin in Russia but it is beyond doubt that the 2012 election will be a highly choreographed and opaque vote, where the key decisions of power-sharing will take place behind the closed doors of the Kremlin.