IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | As the capabilities of HSPA+ grow, more operators are looking to deploy it to support greater downlink rates. |
Implications | Aside from a few LTE trials and planned auctions, progress on LTE will be modest this year. |
Outlook | 3G penetration rates in markets like Brazil and Chile are still relatively low, leaving much room for growth ahead of LTE deployments. |
Business News Americas cites Qualcomm executives as saying that by the end of 2011, Latin America will have 15 commercial HSPA+ networks and two commercial LTE networks. Currently, there are eight commercial LTE networks in the region: four in Latin America and four in the Caribbean. These include Iusacell in Mexico, Chile’s Entel and Movistar, Bolivia’s Entel, and AT&T and T-Mobile in Puerto Rico. Among those HSPA+ networks to go live in 2011 were Claro, Movistar and Telecom Personal in Argentina, Digicel in Barbados, Movistar and Telcel in Mexico, and Vivo in Brazil. Qualcomm added that UNE in Colombia will be one of two commercial LTE networks in Latin America this year.
Qualcomm senior marketing manager Prakash Sangam said that he expects continuing investment in further upgrades to HSPA+ via software and hardware upgrades to support greater speeds. The majority of the world’s commercial HSPA+ networks support peak data rates of 21 Mbps or 28 Mbps, but a growing number of operators are planning to upgrade to 42 Mbps or even 84 Mbps. The lack of available LTE spectrum in many markets amid growing demand for mobile broadband is fuelling continued investment in HSPA+ networks.
Outlook and Implications
- State of 3G Deployment in Latin America: By now, most Latin American markets have competitive 3G markets. A few, including Mexico (Nextel Mexico) and Chile (VTR), will see increased competition in this segment. 3G penetration of the total mobile customer base varies across the region, with Chile at 6.3% and Brazil at 10.2%, but the growing availability of lower-tier 3G handsets and mobile broadband devices will drive further 3G uptake. While there are a number of LTE auctions planned in the region, all Latin American markets have far lower 3G penetration rates than the markets that have seen 4G launches. For instance, LTE was launched in Austria and Sweden when 3G’s market share of total mobile subscribers was 45.3% and 47.1% respectively. While we will see LTE launches well before Latin American markets hit these 3G penetration rates, there is still ample room for 3G and HPSA-based growth.
- LTE Plans: While access to spectrum remains an issue, we are seeing a number of trials (see Uruguay: 6 April 2011: Antel to Test LTE and Brazil: 22 March 2011: Oi to Launch LTE Trials in June 2011). On the licensing front, there have been delays in Chile, but the auction of 2.5-GHz spectrum is likely to be brought forward in Brazil (see Chile: 21 March 2011: Chilean LTE Auction Deferred Again Until H2—Report and 2 May 2011: Brazil's 2.5-GHz Auction to Be Brought Forward—Report).