IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The preliminary results suggesting a win for Michael Martelly have been released against the backdrop of new reports of fraud, although the United States has expressed satisfaction with the process. |
Implications | Final results will be announced on 16 April; until then, the likelihood of violent protests will remain high. |
Outlook | Martelly's inexperience, as well as his campaign pledge to re-establish the army, will worry international donors and investors alike, who fear he will be unable to cope with the reconstruction that Haiti so badly needs. |
Early Victory for Martelly
Haiti's Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) released the preliminary results from the 20 March presidential run-off vote yesterday, giving 67.57% of the vote to Michel Martelly of the Repons Peyizan Party and 31.74% to Mirlande Manigat of the Rassemblement des Démocrates Nationaux Progressistes (RDNP). The turnout was low, however, with only 23% of the 4.7 million registered Haitians voting in the second round. The preliminary results were originally due to be released on 31 March, but reports of fraud by the CEP resulted in a delay. The international electoral observation mission (MOEC), formed by a joint observation team from the Organization of American States (OAS) and the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), had revealed that 60% of the second-round votes had to be put under review by the vote-counting body Unité de Contrôle Légale (UCL). According to the MOEC, around 15,200 ballots had to be recounted by the UCL, with the process still under way. According to the group, around 15% of the tally sheets contained some form of irregularity, suggesting possible fraud. Most of the irregular votes come from the region of Artibonite, where thousands of tally sheets were rejected last week.
Martelly's early victory has thus taken place against the backdrop of new reports of fraud, which tainted the first round of elections on 28 November 2010 (see Haiti: 4 February 2011: Election 2011: First-Round Results Released in Haiti). However, this time the United States has been quick to praise the results, with the US embassy in Haiti declaring yesterday in a statement that the release of preliminary results by the CEP is "another important milestone as the people of Haiti move forward to rebuild their country". The US statement did, however, recognise that "while there were cases of irregularities and fraud on 20 March, these cases were isolated and reduced, especially when compared to the first round of voting". The first round of voting was marred by fraud accusations, leading to episodes of violence and a controversial vote recount. Despite the US blessing, it is likely that this time a similar scenario will take place, especially between now and 16 April, when the definitive results will be released.
Potential Risks Ahead
In the meantime, the spectre of unrest remains ever-present, and the results are far from assured until the final tally on 16 April. Martelly has been running on a platform of change, banking on his position as a political outsider free of the taint of past corrupt practices. In early March, however, allegations were made in the international press that Martelly had defaulted on more than USD1-million-worth of loans as a resident of the US state of Florida (see Haiti: 8 March 2011: Election 2011: Haitian Presidential Candidate Accused of Default in US). Aged 50, and a musician and artist, he remains very popular amongst Haiti's youth but lacks any experience in government or public service. A popular musician of local dance and music known as Kompa, he joined the Repons Peyizan party only recently. He has referred to the need to renew and rebuild politics and education in Haiti, but does not appear to have a concrete agenda to lead the reconstruction and tackle the current cholera epidemic, which has so far claimed over 4,000 lives.
In addition, Martelly has vowed, if elected, to re-establish the country's military on the grounds that it will provide employment. The military was disbanded in 1995 by then-president Jean-Bertrand Aristide (who was ousted in 2004 by armed guerrillas). If it comes to pass, the re-establishment of the military will pose a clear challenge to the continuation of the United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH). MINUSTAH has been instrumental in providing security since 2004 and was making significant progress against the country's gangs before the 12 January 2010 earthquake struck. The body, considered an invading force by many Haitians, continues to be unpopular and the possibility of its withdrawal has undoubtedly gathered clear voter support. Nevertheless, MINUSTAH is the ultimate security guarantor for Haiti, and its withdrawal in the short term would call the country's stability into question.
Outlook and Implications
Martelly's campaign pledge,to re-establish the army, together with his political inexperience, are causing concern for international donors and investors alike, who fear future political instability and a weak government incapable of dealing with the reconstruction. In addition, the fear of violent protests in the coming weeks, before the final results are announced on 16 April, remains high. Aristide, who remains a very popular figure in Haiti's shantytowns, returned to Haiti only two days before the 20 March run-off vote (see Haiti: 21 March 2011: Election 2011: Haitian Run-Off Vote Overshadowed by Return of Ousted Leader). During the press conference immediately after his arrival, Aristide mentioned the exclusion of his party, Fanmi Lavalas (FL), which was barred from participating in the polls. He rejected "all types of violence" but hinted at the apparent unfair treatment given to his party, still the most popular force in the impoverished country. FL could request an annulment of the polls in the weeks ahead, potentially leading to new outbreaks of violence. The atmosphere will thus remain volatile during the next few days, when the likelihood of unrest will be higher.