IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | A major earthquake measuring 8.9 on the Richter scale struck Japan today, triggering a tsunami. Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures in Japan's north-east have been worst affected, with Tokyo also reporting some earthquake-related damage. |
Implications | Coastal regions across Asia are now braced for possible tsunamis caused by the tremors over the coming hours. |
Outlook | It is too early to assess the extent of the damage caused by the powerful earthquake and tsunami as aftershocks and possible tsunamis remain ongoing risks. |
Risk Ratings | Owing to the extensive damage caused to infrastructural networks in Japan, particularly in the north-west, IHS Global Insight has downgraded the Operational Risk Rating by 0.5, from 1.75 to 2.25. |
Earthquake Triggers Tsunami
A major earthquake struck the north-east of Japan, triggering a tsunami that has caused extensive damage. The tremor occurred at 2:46 PM local time, approximately 400 km from Tokyo, off the coast of the main island of Honshu near the city of Sendai. The Japanese Meteorological Agency said that the quake had a magnitude of 8.4, while the US Geological Survey recorded 8.9 on the Richter scale. Television images showed waves of roughly 10 metres roaring inland. The waves hit Japan's Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures, and the initial impact and damage appears extensive. Japan's Kyodo News agency reported 32 deaths about five hours after the quake, with the death toll set to increase substantially over the coming days. Helicopter footage has showed severe flooding in northern coastal towns, where the waves tipped massive cargo vessels on their sides and sent fishing trawlers crashing inland. Vehicles and houses have been swept away and Sendai airport has been completely inundated. Outside the city, aerial footage has captured a moving blanket of water. Japan remains braced for further aftershocks and tsunamis to hit over the coming hours.
Thirty minutes after the earthquake, buildings began to sway in Tokyo and mobile phone networks across central and northern Japan were not working. In central Tokyo, thousands of people rushed out of skyscrapers into the streets, parks, and squares. Plumes of smoke have been reported in a number of locations across the city. Transport networks have been brought to a standstill. Narita airport has been closed, flights suspended, and all passengers evacuated. At the same time, the Tokyo underground and bullet trains to the north of the country have been halted. Tokyo Electric Power reported that 4.05 million buildings have no electricity. Japanese utility company Hokuriku Electric Company said that all three of its nuclear reactors at its Onagawa plant in northern Japan have shut down automatically. The earthquake has resulted in 11 nuclear generation units being shutdown altogether, which has contributed to the power shortages, although it appears that nuclear radiation leaks have been avoided. A major fire has been confirmed by local fire services at Cosmo Oil's 220,000 b/d oil refinery in Chiba prefecture, which is reportedly in the oil storage tank area. The fire was reportedly spreading, suggesting that damage to the refinery could be significant.
Prime Minister Despatches Military
Prime Minister Naoto Kan called an emergency cabinet meeting shortly after the earthquake struck. He has said that the natural disaster has caused serious damage across large areas of the country, emphasising that the Tokyo government was making "every effort possible" to minimise damage. Although there have been no reports of leakage of radioactive materials to the environment, Tokyo has declared a "nuclear emergency" after attempts to cool down a nuclear reactor in a power plant in Fukushima failed to achieve the desired result. Prime Minister Kan has despatched military planes and naval vessels from near Tokyo to the worst-affected regions in Miyagi in order to assess the need for rescue efforts. A senior Japanese official said that the government has received international offers of assistance and that they would be inclined to accept them. The United Nations said 30 international search and rescue teams are on standby to provide assistance.
Quake Sparks Slew of Regional Alerts
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre in Hawaii has extended a tsunami warning across most of the Pacific Ocean, cautioning that the wave would hit the Pacific coastal areas of Russia, Guam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Hawaii, Taiwan, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. It added that the wave could reach as far as Central and South American countries such as Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Panama, Honduras, Chile, Ecuador, Colombia, and Peru. Authorities in Indonesia have warned people living in eastern areas, such as Maluku, Papua, and North Sulawesi to stay out of the water and to seek higher ground as they expect waves up to two metres high. In the Philippines, the government has issued a warning for 19 provinces along the coast, asking people to move inland in anticipation of waves as high as one metre. In Taiwan, the weather bureau has warned that the waves will arrive on the eastern coast of the island at Taitung, Hualien, and Keelung, warning citizens to take the necessary precautions.
The Russian authorities have evacuated 11,000 people from the Kurils, a chain of islands disputed with Japan. Russia's Sakhalin Tsunami Centre located in the country's far east, has reported that the first waves of tsunami have already reached the islands, the biggest one being one-metre high at Shikotan, one of the Kuril Islands. The centre has warned that the second and third waves may be bigger. The Russian natural resources ministry has also reported that all economic activities have been suspended on all four Kuril Islands. Following the news of the deadly earthquake, Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev offered his country's assistance to Japan to overcome the consequences of the disaster.
The US territories of Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Islands, which are the closest US soil to Japan, have cleared their shores, as has the state of Hawaii, on the other side of the Pacific. The low-lying islands of Tuvalu, Tokelau, and Kiribati are regularly flooded by higher than usual tides, so are at particular risk. Nevertheless, there have been indications that the impact may not be as devastating as was initially feared. The Republic of the Marshall Islands, which lies to the south and east of Guam, has downgraded its alert status to "tsunami watch". New Zealand has issued a marine warning, indicating that there is no danger to land but that people should stay out of the sea. New Zealand Civil Defence is predicting waves of less than one metre hitting North Island. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has said there is no tsunami threat to Australia. China's National Marine Environmental Forecasting Centre said it was not at risk of a tsunami striking its coast, while both India's National Tsunami Early Warning Centre and Sri Lanka's Meteorology Department reported no threats.
Outlook and Implications
Earthquakes are common in Japan, which is located on a seismically active area known as the "Ring of Fire"—an arc of earthquake and volcanic zones that stretches around the Pacific Rim. Tokyo sits on the intersection of three continental plates, which results in serious seismic pressure. The 1923 Great Kanto earthquake took more than 140,000 lives. In general, the country is well-equipped to deal with tremors, and buildings are systematically constructed to take into account such risks, using expensive materials such as steel and ferro-concrete. Coastal cities have long had tsunami-protection measures in place. In this instance, Japan has been on high alert since an earthquake occurred on 9 March 2011, with a magnitude of 7.2. Nuclear power plants and bullet trains are designed to automatically shut down during tremors. However, the latest earthquake and subsequent tsunami are extremely unusual owing to their sheer size and intensity. Indeed, the quake is the largest in magnitude since the 9.1 tremor that caused the Boxing Day tsunami in 2004. Although the main concentration of industrial Japan appears unaffected, the extent of the infrastructural damage will be severe. The earthquake and tsunami could also negatively impact on the country's economy while exacerbating the country's ballooning public debt issues, as spending by the Tokyo government will spike to carry out emergency response measures. The regional economy is heavily dependent on growing rice and there will be repercussions for industries operating close to the coast, particularly the fishing and shrimp industry. Meanwhile, the impact of the natural disaster is already being felt across Asia's financial markets, intensifying the uncertainty amid political turmoil in the Middle East and concerns over European debt. Owing to the extensive damage caused to infrastructural networks in Japan, particularly in the north-west, IHS Global Insight has downgraded the Operational Risk Rating by 0.5, from 1.75 to 2.25.