IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Mass protests have been held in Jordan, Iraq, Yemen, Bahrain and Oman over the past several days. Oman is the latest country to have been rocked by protests. |
Implications | Ongoing unrest is raising pressure on governments who are either unable or unwilling to deliver reforms on the scales demanded by protesters. |
Outlook | There is a possibility of further unrest and significant instability in several countries, particularly Bahrain, Yemen, Iraq and Jordan. In Oman protesters are likely to remain loyal to the monarchy, yet, protests may mark the beginning of demands for political participation. |
Political protests continue to spread across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Several countries saw an increase in anti-government protests following mass-rallies after Friday prayers on 25 February.
Bahrain
In Bahrain, protesters continue to gather in the capital's Pearl Square after two weeks of public protests. What began as a largely Shi'a movement has come to include members of Sunni opposition association who in similarity with Shi'as are calling for political reforms. The opposition groups have yet to put together a consolidated set of demands. This is unsurprising considering the varying demands that are being put forward by the disparate opposition groups. The more moderate elements, which include the biggest Shi'a opposition movement Al-Wefaq, are demanding constitutional reforms within the monarchical system that would keep the Al-Khalifa dynasty in power. Others, however, are vociferously calling for an end to the monarchical system. These disparate demands will be difficult to manage for the opposition.
In the absence of a consolidated set of demands from the opposition, Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa bin Salman al-Khalifa on Saturday reshuffled his government, changing the heads of five ministries. Four Sunni cabinet members were sacked, while others merely changed posts. The move has been seen as insufficient for the opposition which on Saturday (26 February) was joined by the formerly exiled leader of the opposition movement al-Haq. Hassan Mesheima was one of 25 activists who were pardoned last week by King Hamad. Mesheima was under trial in absentia for his alleged involvement in a plot to overthrow the government. In a fiery speech, Mesheima called for Bahraini's of all sects and political backgrounds to unite against the regime. He said "There is no dialogue because we are used to hearing lies from the regime, and it broke its promises many times, so how can we trust it again?" He added: "This is the chance in front of the Bahraini people to be liberated and change history. We will not live as slaves—we are masters and we are free people!"
Until now, Al-Wefaq has undoubtedly been the biggest opposition group, but Mesheima's return may boost the more radical elements of protesters. This would further complicate King Hamad's position. He is already under an unprecedented amount of pressure. At this point, it is unclear whether he can save the situation even by taking such a drastic move as dismissing his uncle, prime minister, Sheikh Khalifa bin Salman al-Khalifa.
Iraq
Thousands of protesters gathered in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad and in other cities across the country on Friday to protest against the government, corruption, unemployment, and poor public services. Agence France-Presse (AFP) said that 15 people were killed on the "Day of Rage" as a result of clashes with security forces. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki had the previous day asked Iraqis not to protest against the governments, claiming that they had been organised by militants and members of the former Ba'ath regime.
Public anger in Iraq has been directed at the federal government and against provincial governments. Yesterday, Osama al-Nujafi, speaker of the Iraqi parliament, called for fresh provincial elections to be held within three months as a means of easing protests. This month the provincial governors of Kut, Basra and Babil have resigned after mounting pressure. In response to the social unrest, Maliki's office said in a statement yesterday that the premier had given the government 100 days to improve their performance, after which "an assessment of the work of the government and ministries will be carried out to find out the level of their individual success or failure in performing their jobs". Maliki's effort is unlikely to quell widespread anger. For Maliki's government, the challenge is that if protests continue, the government has few tricks up its sleeve that it could pull to placate anger as many of the grievances expressed will take years to address. The government is newly formed; dissolving it is not a realistic option. Furthermore, holding provincial elections would be a massive logistical undertaking that would in fact drain resources that the government needs to deal instead with public grievances. Nevertheless, if the situation escalates, the government may fall apart over internal disagreements, particularly as it is a coalition including opposition groups, which may consider their positions better served by taking their opposition outside the government.
Jordan
In Jordan, opposition groups on Friday organised what appeared to have been the biggest anti-government rally so far. The Islamic Action Front—the political arm of Jordan's Muslim Brotherhood—had called for a "Day of Anger" after Friday prayers. Reports of the size of the protest vary, but it appeared to have drawn thousands who are disappointed with the lack of political reforms. Yesterday, a key IAF member, Zaki Bani Rsheid, said to Agence France-Presse (AFP): "The regime must understand that it must reform to survive, and that the longer it delays, the louder the calls for change will become," he also warned the regime against the "repercussions of underestimating the seriousness of the political situation."
The government continues to pledge that it will deliver on political reforms. Yesterday, Maaruf Bakhit, the country's new premier, vowed that a new election law would be passed this year. The law is one of the biggest issues of contention between the opposition and the monarchy. The opposition claims that the law favours the tribal constituency that is loyal to the monarchy and King Abdullah. Without a move to reform the electoral law, King Abdullah and the newly formed government will face mounting calls for constitutional amendments to limit the King's executive powers. In the meanwhile, Jordan will likely face mounting political protests.
Yemen
In Yemen, President Ali Abdullah Saleh is facing a mounting challenge as several key tribal figures from some of the country's most powerful tribes. After weeks of protests of anti-presidential protests in Sana'a, the capital, and elsewhere, Hussein al-Ahmar of the Hashid tribal confederation said on Saturday that he would resign from his position on Saleh's ruling General People's Congress Party. Ahmar was speaking at rally in the Amran province in the country's north and was said by media reports to have called for the government's overthrow. Al-Jazeera reported that the rally was attended by members of the country's two biggest tribal confederations, the Hashid and the Baqil. His effective defection followed similar moves by other GPCP members. Last week Mohammad Abdel Illah al-Qadi of the Sanhan, which belongs to the Hashid confederation, also left the party. Amid raging protests, these resignations—and in particular Hussein al-Ahmar's decision—are particularly damaging for Saleh, whose political survival is dependent on tribal support. Erosion of tribal support will make it more difficult for Saleh to cope with the country's multiplying political troubles. For now, he is still in a position to keep the balance and many tribes continue to be loyal to the government.
Oman
Oman is the latest country to experience social unrest, raising another warning signal for Gulf Arab states. Protests appear to have begun in the typically tranquil state on Friday (25 February) with a small sit-in Salalah in Dhofar province. On Saturday bigger protests were held in the industrial city of Sohar, in Salalah, as well as in the capital, Muscat. In Sohar protests turned violent, and at least two people were killed. It was unclear why protests in Sohar turned violent but eye witnesses speaking to the media said that protesters had been shot at with rubber bullets after they tried to storm a police station. In all three cities, protests continued on Sunday and were also said to be ongoing today.
The rare protests will no doubt have raised considerable regional protests. Oman is typically a highly tranquil country that has seen virtually next to no unrest since Sultan Qaboos put an end to a violent rebellion in the Dhofar region after coming to power in 1970. So far, it appears that protesters are only demanding socio-economic reforms, including an end to corruption by officials, greater employment opportunities, better purchasing power, as well as some degree of political reform. Many were said by media reports to have pledged loyalty to Sultan Qaboos and no reports have been found to suggest that any of the protesters were calling for the fall of the regime. This suggests that Sultan Qaboos remains widely popular, and that protests are the result of years of rising inflation, high unemployment and anger over corruption.
Sultan Qaboos meanwhile, reacted swiftly to protests. On Saturday Qaboos instituted a cabinet reshuffle, albeit a lacklustre one. He also pledged to create 50,000 new jobs, as well as provide jobless people with some USD400 per month in unemployment benefits. In the most drastic move so far, the Sultan established a committee that will investigate the possibility of endowing the country's consultative Shura council with legislative powers, something which could give the council the guise of a more conventional parliament. The public reaction to the Sultan's pledges remain uncertain, not least because it is unclear how and to what degree they will be implemented, and how quickly. To be sure, one of the key challenges for Oman will be to find the funds necessary to maintain social benefits and raise employment levels. In the short-term, Oman will benefit from windfall oil revenues from the currently high oil prices. The non-OPEC producer may also be able to ramp up oil production for a limited period of time, as it has in the past, to help ride out the storm. On the political front, considering his widespread popularity, Sultan Qaboos does not appear loath to opening up the Shura council to greater political participation or to endow it with actual legislative powers. However, considering that demands for political participation have been muted in the past, there is no historic precedence to judge the Sultan's future actions on.
Outlook and Implications
Socio-political unrest in each of the countries mentioned is unlikely to die down any time soon. Leaders are facing tough choices. The regimes in Oman, Bahrain, Jordan and Yemen can only give in to protesters' demands by eroding their own political power. Of these countries, Sultan Qaboos is most likely to be amenable to a considerable degree of political reform, despite having held vast executive powers for four decades. Yemen poses the highest risk country due to Saleh's dependence on a delicate tribal balance that is now coming under threat. Bahrain too is a high risk country which may end up relying on external help to survive the storm. Meanwhile, for Iraq, the greatest challenge is in ridding the country of decades of poor governance and the unrest is therefore is institutional in nature. The government is not only internally divided, also suffers from lack of efficiency. This will make any short-term steps difficult to implement. Nevertheless, there are some immediate moves that Maliki's government can take to placate unrest; however, the government needs years to make considerable improvements in people's lives.