IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The forceful means employed by the security forces is contradictory to the statement issued by the interior ministry earlier this week that police had been urged to restrain the use of force on protesters. |
Implications | The choice to use such firm means to disperse the crowd that had gathered in Manama's Pearl Square is indicative of the government's high level of concern over the possibility of further unrest. |
Outlook | Bahrain's Shi'a population has in the past shown that it can sustain prolonged periods of protests against the regime, and the authorities have shown that they can withstand such unrest. However, with several people killed, this morning's events have raised the stakes and possibility of further unrest. |
Early Morning Raid
In an early morning raid today (17 February), Bahraini security forces forcefully cleared out a protest camp that had gathered in Manama's Pearl Square over the past couple of days. Media reports described how heavily armed riot police descended on the camp at 3.00 am local time while protesters who had camped out in the square were still sleeping. Earlier, thousands of protesters had gathered in the square; by night time a smaller, unverified number remained in the square where they had set up tents. Media reports said that tear gas canisters and rubber bullets were used to disperse the squatters, some of whom were said to have been women and children. Eyewitnesses described being beaten by riot police and video footage from the square showed considerable damage and the aftermath of what appeared to have been a highly chaotic scene.
The Associated Press, citing a medical worker, said that four people were killed during the raid. Agence France-Presse (AFP) meanwhile, said that as many as 95 people were injured, leaving a local hospital inundated. Today, heavy security forces, including armoured military vehicles, were deployed in Manama and particularly around Pearl Square, which some protesters have sought to turn into Bahrain's version of Cairo's Tahrir (Liberation) Square, where protesters gathered for 18 days until former President Hosni Mubarak was ousted.
Interior Ministry spokesperson General Tarek al-Hassan said in a statement carried by the official Bahrain News Agency (BNA) that "the security forces evacuated Pearl Square... after having exhausted all chance of dialogue;" adding "Some left the place of their own accord, while others refused to submit to the law, which required an intervention to disperse them". This statement represents a considerable shift from comments by Interior Minister Sheikh Rashed bin Abdullah al-Khalifa on Tuesday (15 February) when he said that the policemen responsible for two previous protester deaths had been detained and an investigation launched. He also said at the time that the authorities regretted that "recent events have cause casualties and apologise to the nation" and further that security personnel had been ordered to "exercise self-restraint".
In other developments yesterday (16 February), Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa visited the Bahrain Defence Force (BDF) General Command, and hailed the forces' role in protecting and defending the country. In an unmistakeably unapologetic comment reflecting the recently heightened tensions, King Hamad said "We have widened the scope for peaceful and legal freedom of expression to be exercised within the framework of laws, regulations and guarantees warranted in the constitution". The King appeared to be showing the monarchy's unity with the BDF and the country's security forces, highlighting that they "are the guardians of the nation who defend the motherland in all situations".
Escalating Sectarian Unrest
As IHS Global Insight highlighted yesterday, the kingdom is not unaccustomed to sectarian unrest (see Bahrain: 16 February 2011: Bahraini Protesters Demand Regime Change). Nevertheless, the authorities' most recent behaviour reveals the levels of concern over the protests in light of the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt as well as the unrest seen in other parts of the Middle East and North Africa. This is verified also by the heavy security troops that have been deployed in Manama today, alongside helicopters that have been circling key areas for the past couple of days. The authorities are unsurprisingly concerned over the potential ramifications of escalated unrest. It has been clear that protesters in Bahrain, who appear by and large to be members of the country's majority Shi'a population, have been inspired by events elsewhere, not least because some protesters have called for regime change.
The means used to disperse the protesters in Pearl Square will raise media attention to the situation considerably, not least since foreign governments and observers alike are monitoring the region for any signs of repeats of the revolts in Tunisia and Egypt. Similarly, last year's parliamentary elections held on 23 October were overshadowed by mass-Shi'a upheaval. That period of unrest calmed down after the elections were held, but sectarian tensions have continued to simmer beneath the surface. Now, with a total of six people killed since the protests began earlier this week, the government's methods may well result in an escalation, rather than end, to unrest. It will also make it less likely that the main Shi'a al-Wefaq will return its MP's to the lower parliamentary house any time soon. Al-Wefaq, which holds 18 of the house's 40 seats, said earlier this week that it would suspend its participation in parliament as a result of heavy handed tactics used by the authorities against protesters. Today, the society's head, Sheikh Ali Salman, said that the raid was a "savage and unjustified attack against a peaceful assembly" and warned that it "was a mistaken decision which will have catastrophic repercussions on the stability of Bahrain".
Outlook and Implications
The Bahraini leadership has drawn a line under its tolerance for anti-regime protests, fearing that these may escalate to the level of mass-revolt seen in Tunisia and Egypt within the past month. In an attempt to prevent unrest, the government and King Hamad have vowed to press on with reforms in the face of protests and vowed to keep price support measures in place and speed up developments for increased social support. However, in deciding to clamp down so brutally on the protesters in Pearl Square the government has weakened the potency of such promises. Instead, its actions risk deepening sectarian divides, igniting protesters' fury, and uniting the Shi'a population further against the government and the monarchy.