IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The significant moment in Egyptian history came after 18 days of mass rallies that swept revolutionary fervour through the country and left 300 people dead. |
Implications | Hosni Mubarak's removal from power has sent shockwaves across the Middle East and North Africa region, and there is now significant speculation over which Arab regime could be next. |
Outlook | The next stage will by no means be easy, with the lacklustre opposition expected to struggle to hammer out deals over key issues and given the leaderless nature of the protests, for it to claim itself as a genuine representative of the people. |
A Defining Moment
Egyptians have achieved what many believed impossible merely months earlier: the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak who had ruled the populous country for three decades. The historic moment came after 18 days of anti-government protests, during which the army played a pivotal role, acting both as a protector and arbiter, while increasingly distancing itself from the government and ruling party. At least 1 million people descended onto the streets of Cairo to call for the ouster of Mubarak, who for years was a key ally of the United States.
Days before the announcement the president seemed to be digging in his heals, apparently determined to ride out the storm. He tested the crowds with the offer of a number of reforms, but for the protestors, many of whom gathered in Egypt’s emblematic Tahrir or Victory Square, his proposals would not suffice and it became clear that nothing short of his removal from office would halt the impassioned protests that, along with the deteriorating security situation, had brought normal economic activity in the teeming capital to a halt, with banks and many businesses remaining closed.
It is now that political wrangling over the country’s future begins; however, given the weakness of the opposition, this appears increasingly difficult. The protests have been portrayed as largely a leaderless rebellion and it will be difficult for the opposition to claim to represent the sheer diversity of people who took part.
Revolution or Military Coup?
In its statement, the supreme military council said that it will manage the affairs of the country for a temporary period of six months. It dissolved the upper and lower houses of parliament with the promise of new elections and pledged to establish a committee to amend some of the clauses of the Constitution. The amendments will be put forward for approval by the people in a nationwide referendum. The events of the last few days clearly cannot be explained by the strength of the protests alone, but behind the scenes the military is manoeuvring. It has been suggested that the Egyptian military decided to do away with Mubarak in order to avoid further crushing the Egyptian state and the possibility of genuine revolution, suggesting that in some ways the events could be better characterised as a military coup on the back of rising protests, rather than solely a people's revolution.
Outlook and Implications
Egypt faces an uncertain time over the next few months; however, a number of factors continue to bode well, most notably signs that the army remains popular and although the aim is very much to ensure that a civilian government is put in place, the people are content to see the supreme military council oversee the transition. The fact that the government will remain in place will ensure a certain degree of continuity, something that is crucial to ensuring the effective day-to-day running of the country’s ministries. The risk of extortion or nationalisation also remains extremely low given the expressed desire not to unnerve Egypt’s business community.
Some analysts have also raised the spectre of the ouster leading to more commercial opportunities should stability be guaranteed. The country's business elite has long been calling for democracy and free markets as a means of guaranteeing its investments. The international community, in particular the United States, is likely to have breathed a sigh of relief when the Supreme Council said that it was committed to adhering to its previous international commitments, including those under the Camp David peace treaty with Israel.
The Muslim Brotherhood also appears initially to be behaving in a way so as to avoid jeopardising the current negotiations. Although the strength of the Muslim Brotherhood remains by far one of the most worrying issues, Egypt’s secularists may have to be content with it in the future. A more moderate stance by the Brotherhood and its desire to work within the parameters set out could make the transition far less problematic.