Nepal Finally Elects Prime Minister, But Serious Challenges Remain

Nepal elected Jhalanath Khanal as its new Prime Minister yesterday, ending seven months of intense political wrangling. Khanal, who is the chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal–United Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML), secured 368 votes in the currently 599-member constituent assembly (CA, parliament), more than the simple majority required. The election of Khanal comes after an agreement was struck between the CPN-UML and the Unified Communist Party of Nepal–Maoist (UCPN-M), which led Pushpa Kamal Dahal (alias Prachanda) to withdraw his own candidacy and move members within the UCPN-M to support Khanal's bid. Khanal is expected to be sworn into office on Sunday (6 February). Khanal defeated Ram Chandra Poudel of the Nepali Congress (NC), who received 122 votes, and Bijaya Kumar Gachhadar, the candidate of a bloc of ethnic Madhesi parties, who won 67 votes.

The election comes after a panel made up of the country's main political parties, the CPN-UML, the UCPN–M and the Nepali Congress (NC) agreed to amend the rules for the prime ministerial election last month. Until then, the interim constitution of 2007 required lawmakers to continue voting ad infinitum until a simple majority has been secured for a candidate, but the fact that no party commands a simple majority in parliament and the inability of political parties to agree on a common candidate meant that 16 rounds of voting ended in failure. The new rules abolished the rights of members of parliament to abstain from voting, while the speaker had the right to disqualify candidates.

Outlook and Implications

Following months of political stalemate, Khanal's election raises hopes that political parties will be more flexible in making concessions on some of the key substantial issues that have thwarted political progress over the past months. As such, the election of a prime minister alone will not be sufficient to end the political deadlock. The past has shown that even if political parties agreed on a prime minister and government that progress on substantial issues can be slow, or even non-existent.

The first task will be the formation of a new government. This can be expected to be a tumultuous affair, and given that the NC, the second-strongest force in parliament has no stake in the government, major agitation can be expected from the opposition benches. As of today, it remained unclear what kind of agreement the CPN-UML and the Maoists have struck, leaving it entirely open what form the new government will take and how positions will be distributed. Overall, the failure of the three principle political parties to put together a "consensus" government (as opposed to the "majority" government that is now likely to be formed) bodes ill for political stability in the short term, with the parties unlikely to be able to agree on key components of the ailing peace process that was begun with the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2006, which ended a decade-long civil war that has cost the lives of an estimated 16,000 people.

Regarding the peace process, the two main issues that need addressing are:

• An Elusive New Constitution: Following two years of fruitless discussions since the inception of the CA, a key deadline for drafting and promulgating the new constitution lapsed on 28 May 2010. With the CA subsequently extended by one year, a new deadline for finalising and passing the constitution is now set for 28 May 2011. However, given the profound differences between parties even with regard to what basic type of state should be enshrined in the constitution, there are serious doubts whether this new deadline can be met. The CPA mentions that the new constitution should "end the existing centralised and unitary state system and restructure it into an inclusive, democratic progressive system to address various problems including that of women, Dalits, indigenous community, Madhesis, oppressed, ignored and minority communities, backward regions by ending prevailing class, ethnic, linguistic, gender, cultural, religious and regional discrimination". The Interim Constitution of 2007, which provides for the establishment of the CA, did little to clarify on this, while also failing to lay down specific and appropriate rules for how the CA should function. As a result, individual parties stuck with their own ideas of what should go into the constitution and have not been ready to compromise on key issues, including whether Nepal should have a parliamentary or presidential form of governance, the type of federalism to be adopted and the wording of the preamble. The UCPN-M has been particularly active in promoting its demands. In June 2010, after the first term of the CA expired, the UCPN-M unilaterally published a first draft of its "Constitution of the People's Federal Republic of Nepal, 2067". This draft constitution calls for the creation of a federal state with 12 autonomous states mostly based on ethnicity. However, the devolution of power would be limited as the president at the centre would hold almost all executive power. The fourth-largest party in parliament, the Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum (MJAF) also supports a federal state structure based on ethnicity and an executive presidency, but contrary to the Maoists wants a bicameral legislature at the centre. It also demands a single federal unit for the Madhesi ethnic group. Opposed to a federal structure based on ethnicity and a presidential system of governance, the CPN-UML and the Nepali Congress would like to see a federal state structure based mainly on geography, population, language, history and other aspects, and a parliamentary system of governance with a bicameral legislature, led by a prime minister. However, the CPN-UML wants the prime minister to be elected through direct elections, while the NC advocates for a system in which the prime minister is to be elected by the majority of parliament. Further complicating the adoption of a new constitution, several smaller parties are pressing for a range of issues to be included in the constitution, with some parties even pressing for a return to monarchy. These disagreements will not go away with the formation of a new government, suggesting that it will be extremely difficult for the government to push through certain sections of the new constitution, which requires a two-thirds majority of members of the CA.

• The Issue of PLA Fighters: The modus operandi and timeframe of the integration of former People's Liberation Army (PLA) fighters into the regular Nepalese security forces remains a key source of contention between parties. The situation grew more complicated with the departure of the United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) last month. Despite the formation of the top panel to take over UNMIN's tasks, there remains a general lack of willingness among political parties to agree on key aspects of the integration process, calling into question the extent to which progress on this issue can be achieved anytime soon. This bodes unwell for other key issues, including the drafting of the new constitution, as the resolving of the fate of the former Maoist combatants was made a precondition by the main parties to proceed in other areas.

Other Issues

It is as yet unclear to what extent the government will include various disenfranchised ethnic groups. In particular, it will be interesting to see what the government will do with regard to ethnic Madhesis that live in southern Nepal. The poor security situation in the southern Terai region has been considered a destabilising factor in the context of moving ahead with the peace process, with the Madhesi minority from this region known as Nepal's breadbasket having traditionally been marginalised in the political sphere. Ethnic unrest broke out in Terai on the border of India in the beginning of 2007. The situation subsequently deteriorated until early 2008, with more than 12 armed groups active in the region, seeking various goals ranging from separatism to greater political representation. Grievances culminated in the UMRF's obstructive blockade in the south, which only came to an end when the interim government signed the so-called Eight-Point Agreement, allowing for Madhesh and other federal states to be recognised as autonomous regions. It also pledged to include in the new constitution provisions for equal representation of all minorities in all sectors of government and to allow for proportional recruitment of minorities into the national army. Hopes are that their grievances can be channelled into the political process after Madhesi parties obtained some 72 seats in the CA. However, prospects for reaching a political agreement with all the Madhesi groups have in the past been complicated by the fact that they are not unified and internal conflicts have in some cases erupted between them, thereby making it difficult for the government to find viable negotiating partners. 

More broadly, there is an urgent need for the government to push through reforms to revive the country's crippled economy. The country's unstable political environment has stunted the country's economic growth rate, and at US$296 in 2009 the annual per capita income of Nepal is the lowest in South Asia, while unemployment and underemployment are both high. A low literacy rate of 57.9% (2008) also impedes economic development. Poverty is being reduced at a snail's pace, but according to the Asian Development Bank 55.1% of Nepal's population still live below the absolute poverty line of US$1.25 per day.