IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The protests are the worst the country has seen for several decades and may ultimately result in the removal of President Hosni Mubarak; nonetheless, events seem to indicate that he is intent on remaining in power. |
Implications | The police have withdrawn from Egypt's streets, creating a vacuum that up until now the army has been unable to fill. Businesses, banks and private homes are at risk from looters and employees of foreign companies are urged to leave the country. |
Outlook | The situation remains highly volatile, with events difficult to predict. The president has further raised the stakes, increasing the population's frustration by keeping a low profile and announcing only piecemeal reforms. These are unlikely to be enough, although the desperation of the security situation as a result of looting may force the population to settle for less than their full demands. |
A New Vice-President
Protests calling for the resignation of Egypt’s president Hosni Mubarak have continued for a seventh day today. The main focal point has been Cairo’s Tahrir or Victory Square, where tens of thousands are currently gathered and are refusing to leave until their demands are met. This comes despite the announcement on Friday (28 January) that the president has appointed intelligence chief Omar Suleiman to the post of vice-president, apparently as a concession quashing the possibility of a father-to-son succession. Mubarak’s failure to appoint a vice-president during his three-decade-long tenure as president has fuelled considerable speculation about succession, especially recently given his age and ill health. Mubarak’s son, who heads the ruling party’s powerful policy committee, has proven popular with the country’s business elite, but remains extremely unpopular on the Egyptian street. The government was also dissolved and a new prime minister appointed. The appointee is Aviation Minister Ahmad Shafiq.
The two appointments by Mubarak reaffirm the pivotal role of the army and security services generally. All of the country’s presidents, past and present, have military backgrounds. Many from the military have gone on to assume senior positions, including as governors or ministers, and as such this is not unusual; however, it remains imperative that the new government will actually be a civilian one. The president, however, has chosen to move cautiously, making minor announcements one at a time and seeing what the reaction on the street is, in the hope of offering as few concessions as possible. This morning he appointed a new intelligence chief to replace Suliman, underscoring the fact that he retains control and that his primary aim is to shore up the security apparatus. The president has generally kept a low profile and has avoided directly addressing the protestors, much to their frustration. What remains clear, however, is that he remains intent on riding out this difficult storm.
The Army Moves In
The police, after having sustained heavy casualties during the initial days of the protests, have withdrawn almost completely from urban areas. This was followed shortly by the deployment of the army, which has now stationed tanks and armoured vehicles across the capital and throughout the country. The army was welcomed by the crowds of protestors—as an institution it is highly respected and, unlike the police, its reputation remains less tarnished by allegations of brutality and rights abuses. One of the most serious clashes actually occurred in front of the interior ministry, for many the interior minister, who is responsible for the country’s iron-fist approach to internal security, remains a key figure of hate. The army, however, has been too thinly stretched and unable to provide security on Egypt’s backstreets, causing panic and fear. Vigilante groups have been formed across the country armed with knifes and sticks to protect private property. Such groups have created cordons, blocking off streets, with each group protecting their own part of the street. Lootings have been widespread and the army has ordered those who have been caught to be brought to them. Several hundred looters now remain in the army’s custody. Large gangs of youths have targeted homes, businesses, banks and cars in upscale districts of Cairo.
A number of prison breaks have occurred, including one at Egypt’s maximum security prison in Wadi al Natron, thus further exacerbating the security situation. At least tens of thousands of people are believed to have fled from various prisons after guards were overwhelmed. These include political prisoners and those charged of being part of terrorist groups like al Takfir w’al Hijra, responsible for planning a raft of attacks in the country. A number of Muslim Brotherhood party members have also escaped, but some have returned to the unguarded prisons after coming under fire from the public for violating the law and capitalising on the chaos.
The following is a summary of some of the costs of the violence over the last six days:
- Loss of Life: No figures have been confirmed as yet, but the death toll reached six on the first day of protests, with the number of police killed surpassing the number of protestors. The number of casualties swelled with the eruption of a fire fight in a police station in north Sinai that left 36 people dead. Bloodshed was seen in the coastal city of Suez that left another 30 dead. At least two dozen people have been killed in a series of jail breaks across the country. Thousands of people have been injured.
- Banks, ATMs Targeted: The CIB Bank and dozens of ATM machines were destroyed and robbed during the violence. The central bank announced yesterday that all banks will remain closed given the risk of attacks.
- Stock Market Closed: Egypt’s stock market remained closed for a third day yesterday. Stock values plummeted in the first few days of the protests.
- Foreign Nationals Evacuated: Countries have begun evacuating their citizens in light of the unrest. The U.S. Embassy said that it would start evacuating citizens today. Saudi Arabia has sent 10 extra flights to evacuate its citizens, while Turkey sent three yesterday. Companies have also been evacuating their expatriate staff. Thousands of people remain stranded at Cairo International Airport.
- National Museum, Heritage Sites Come Under Attack: A number of historical artefacts have been damaged after a break-in at the national museum. Protestors have since formed a ring around the site to protect it form further lootings. Sites in Luxor and Aswan have reportedly also come under attack.
- Courts, Ruling Party Headquarters, Police Stations Torched: Almost all symbols of state authority, with the exception of the military, have been targeted by protesters at great cost.
- Roads Blocked, Supplies of Basic Goods Dwindle: There have been reports that in several locations basic foodstuffs have begun running out, owing to shortages caused by road blocks, transport disruption and curfews. Many grocery stores have shut as a result of the fear of looting. A branch of French supermarket chain Carrefour was subject to an attack in the Cairo district of Maadi.
- Communications Severely Affected: Today marks the fourth day of a complete internet block in Egypt. This is significant given that most of the protests were originally organised through social network sites. However, most mobile phone networks are now up and running.
United States Calls for "Orderly Transition"
The United States stopped short yesterday of calling on President Mubarak to step down, but instead requested an orderly transition. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called on Mubarak to begin new reforms in a message reiterated in five separate television interviews. Her sentiments were similarly echoed by U.S. president Barack Obama. The Whitehouse issued a statement saying that Obama had been in contact with regional leaders, during which he stressed the need to “support universal rights, including the right to peaceful assembly, association and speech”. The policy may ultimately backfire and although the United States remains obliged to say that it supports reform, it remains unlikely to view the outcome of genuine political and democratic transition favourably. The Muslim Brotherhood, which calls for the creation of an Islamic state through democratic means, for example, is likely to grow in prominence and could form part of a new government.
Egypt has been a key ally to the United States, remains one of only two Arab nations to have relations with Israel and has played an import role in the war on terror. Should the regime fall it will have profound geo-political implications, most of which are unlikely to be positive. The Saudi King has lent his support to President Mubarak: he was quoted by the Saudi Press Association (SPA) as saying that “the kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its people and government declares it stands with all its resources with the government of Egypt”. Israel, for its part, has urged Western nations not to marginalise Mubarak.
Outlook and Implications
The situation remains extremely volatile and it seems clear that the president continues to be intent on biding his time until ordinary Egyptians remain so preoccupied with the deteriorating security situation that political change becomes a secondary concern. The president seems intent on keeping a low profile, issuing statements and concessions, and testing the reaction on the street while behind the scenes attempting to shore up the security apparatus. So far the minor concessions made in the form of the appointment of a vice-president have done little to stave off calls for his removal. Moreover, as time goes on so the frustration mounts, perhaps ensuring that the strategy backfires, upping the stakes with people who would have once been happy with the removal of the interior ministry and the holding of fresh elections now intent to pushing for nothing less than the ouster of the president. A viable alternative to Mubarak remains worryingly absent and the opposition has been quiet in recent days. Making a managed transition comprising a series of steps negotiated with Mubarak over a longer period is a far more favourable approach.