Military police deployments to Mexico's Guanajuato state unlikely to significantly reduce hydrocarbons theft or homicides in 2018

Soldiers take positions in front of villagers mounting roadblocks with burning tires to protest an army crackdown the day after an armed confrontation between soldiers and alleged fuel thieves ('huachicoleros') that tap the pipelines of state-owned oil giant PEMEX, in Palmarito Tochapan, Puebla, Mexico in May 2017.

Jose Castanares/AFP/Getty Images

Security forces present in Guanajuato now include 3,200 military police, 4,000 federal police, and 185 National Gendarmerie, totalling 13,000 personnel that have been deployed to counter what authorities have identified as "turf wars" between criminal groups for exclusive rights to hydrocarbon thefts in specific areas. Guanajuato Governor Miguel Márquez Márquez of the National Action Party (Partido Acción Nacional: PAN) stated on 16 February that the new security forces would be deployed along the industrial corridor municipalities of Apaseos, Celaya, Irapuato, León, and Salamanca, through which the main pipelines, highways, and train lines run throughout the state. The additional security personnel will also reinforce municipal police structures and security patrols in hotspots, and will oversee the training of existing and new personnel.

The deployments were authorised in response to several high-profile homicides that have occurred since the beginning of 2018. These include the murder of a Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) security director on 25 February in Salamanca, the murder of an Institutional Revolutionary Party (Partido Revolucionario Institucional: PRI) councillor on 24 January in Celaya municipality, and the killing of an Irapuato police director on 20 January; several business leaders have also been targeted. Guanajuato is an important manufacturing hub located in the central region of Mexico, and the state hosts companies operating in the automotive, energy, agribusiness, and mining sectors.

Pipeline syphoning

A February 2018 poll of the Mexican Employers Confederation body (COPARMEX) found that more than 52% of businesses in Guanajuato had been the victims of crime, ranking sixth nationally. In 2017, the state also topped pipeline-theft rankings in Mexico with 1,852 clandestine siphoning incidents, marking a 50% increase over 2016 and exceeding traditional hotspots like Puebla (1,443) and Veracruz (1,012).

The authorities have begun to close petrol stations in an effort to curb the sale of stolen fuel. In 2017 12 stations were shut down, and a further 21 are in the process of closure this year. Furthermore, Pemex announced in October 2017 that it had fired an unknown number of employees from its Salamanca refinery operations as a result of illegal activities, although the firm failed to disclose precise details. At least seven Pemex employees have been killed due to violent crime since 2012.

The Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) cartel dominates criminal operations in the state, having successfully battled the weakening Los Zetas group during the past two years. The Union Cartel of León and the fuel-theft-linked Santa Rosa de Lima Guanajuato cartel are among CJNG's opponents fighting for exclusive rights to control fuel-theft operations in Guanajuato.

Security indicators

Guanajuato recorded a murder rate of 18.35 victims per 100,000 inhabitants in 2017, marginally below the national average of 20.51. The most recent significant incident took place on 25 February, when six individuals were burned to death in a van and five other bodies exhibiting evidence of torture were discovered on the Querétaro-Celaya highway outside Apaseo el Grande.

Despite the deteriorating security situation, drug-related violence levels are comparatively lower in Guanajuato than in drug-cartel hotspots such as Guerrero and Michoacán states. A total of 1,096 homicides were recorded in the state in 2017, a 12% increase from 2016. The majority of incidents occurred in León (335), Celaya (96), Salamanca (82), and Irapuato (71) municipalities. The largest year-on-year increases in murders took place in Yuriria (56.3%), Apaseo el Grande (50%), and Apaseo el Alto (46.4%) municipalities. The rising trend in Guanajuato has continued in 2018 with 172 murders recorded in January, bringing the state to eighth from 16th in national rankings behind Chihuahua, Nayarit, and Morelos. Similarly, reported theft incidents recorded a 12.5% increase between 2016 and 2017 to 39,426 incidents.

The majority of these were concentrated in municipalities such as León (10,840), Celaya (6,409), and Irapuato (6,250). The true figures are likely to be far higher: a Statistics Agency victimisation survey released in September 2017 estimated that at least 91.7% of all crimes committed in the state are never reported. In an effort to diversify revenue streams criminal organisations have also become involved in rail cargo theft, although collaboration between state authorities and rail company Ferromex reduced the number of incidents by 90% from 2016 to 2017.

Outlook and implications

Despite significantly expanded security personnel deployments in Guanajuato state since 30 January, we assess that this is unlikely to markedly improve the overall security situation in the six-month outlook. If Guanajuato's crime figures follow patterns observed elsewhere in Mexico in similar activities – as is likely – security operations involving frequent exchanges of fire between security forces and rival cartels would probably have to progress for at least three to four months before having an impact on homicide rates and other proxy measures. We assess that the government is likely to sustain its commitment to these operations and security force deployments, and that these will probably begin to slowly but steadily reduce the homicide rate in the latter half of 2018. Flashpoints for violent confrontations are likely to be concentrated to the east of Celaya in Apaseo el Grande, where train cargo and oil and gas pipelines present significant opportunities for theft operators.

If "narco messages" (from cartels) typically displaying turf-war developments become less frequent, this would indicate progress by the security forces against cartel activities and in gradually turning the local population against criminal groups. Conversely, if local residents continue to disrupt security operations by swarming personnel or shooting at security forces, as has occurred elsewhere, this would indicate that security forces are still struggling to achieve even limited headway against the cartels. There is a high risk of cartels attempting to intensify pressure on the government ahead of July 2018 elections; successful assassinations of political candidates would be an additional indicator of limited progress against cartels and limited prospects of improvement in the overall security situation and crime levels in the state.