The sales value of the Polish retail pharmaceutical market grew by 8.1% year on year in the third quarter of 2016 to PLN7.561 billion.
Implications | Growth was most dynamic in the OTC market segment, with sales of OTC drugs in pharmacies increasing by 11% y/y. |
Outlook | OTC sales are growing dynamically again after a relative slump, while growth in the value of the reimbursed drugs segment remains steady at low-to-medium single-digit rates. With the Polish government's cautious approach to reimbursement expenditure, this is trend is likely to continue. |
In the third quarter of 2016, the value of the Polish retail pharmaceutical market – defined as sales of medicines in retail pharmacies – grew by 8.1% year on year (y/y) to PLN7.561 billion (USD1.924 billion) in retail prices, according to data from Polish pharmaceutical market research organisation PharmaExpert. The largest contribution to this growth was made by over-the-counter (OTC) medicines, sales of which increased by 11.0% y/y to PLN3.030 billion. Sales of non-reimbursed prescription drugs also grew strongly, up 8.8% y/y at PLN1.700 billion. Sales of reimbursed prescription drugs were up by 4.6% y/y at PLN2.775 billion.
Segment | Q3 2016 | Y/Y, % change |
|---|---|---|
Reimbursed prescription drugs | 2.775* | 4.6 |
Non-reimbursed prescription drugs | 1.700 | 8.8 |
OTC drugs | 3.030 | 11.0 |
Total | 7.561 | 8.1 |
Reimbursement paid by NFZ | 1.941 | 3.1 |
Percentage of cost of reimbursed drugs paid by patients | 30.1 | 0.6 pp higher |
Source: PharmaExpert * includes reimbursement and co-payments© 2016 IHS | ||
There was a slight increase in the amount of reimbursement paid out by the National Health Fund (NFZ) in the third quarter, according to PharmaExpert's data, in line with the increase in the planned budget for reimbursement in the ambulatory sector. The NFZ recently published details of its spending for the first nine months of 2016, in which it gave a figure for the planned budget for the reimbursement of prescription drugs for the entire year of PLN8.17 million. Based on the NFZ's data regarding the amount paid out for reimbursement in the ambulatory sector in 2015, the planned budget for 2016 amounts to an increase of 2.4% y/y.
According to the NFZ's figures, in the first nine months of 2016, the proportion of the total budget paid out for reimbursement in the ambulatory sector was 73.2% – meaning that the amount spent was within budget. The NFZ reported that the percentage of the entire reimbursement budget – including drug programmes and chemotherapy – spent in the first nine months was 70.9%. The fund's figures show that its spending on medicines used in drug programmes in January–September amounted to 69.1% of the planned annual total, and its spending on medicines classified under 'chemotherapy' in this period amounted to 69.9% of the planned annual total. The full breakdown of the NFZ's pharma spending in January–September and budget estimates for 2016 can be accessed at its website, here, in Polish.
Outlook and implications
Growth in the overall retail pharmaceutical market in Poland has picked up in the third quarter, compared with the first half, when the market grew by 5.5% y/y overall (see Poland: 26 July 2016: Polish retail pharmaceutical market achieves strong growth in H1). Furthermore, growth in each segment of the retail pharmaceutical market increased in pace in the third quarter, compared with the first half, with the amount of reimbursement paid out also edging up.
The ambulatory sector has, over recent years, lacked the new additions of innovative medicines available in the hospital sector in Poland, although small numbers of new originator drugs have been added in the ambulatory sector. This is likely to be one of the reasons that the sales value of reimbursed prescription drugs continues to rise only at a steady, low-to-medium single-digit rate.
Meanwhile, a recent slowdown in the OTC segment in pharmacies in Poland appears to have ended. Planned changes to the pharmacy law would mean that some OTC drugs currently sold outside of pharmacies would be limited to pharmacy-sale only, which could have a positive impact on pharmacies, but not so on the overall OTC market. What kind of impact other elements of the planned changes – such as rules requiring qualified pharmacists to be the majority owners of pharmacies, and the introduction of limits on the number of pharmacies an individual can own – would have on the pharmacy market is open to question.